Transfer from: financial sector
Source of this article: Selected research papers of securities companies
Source: Huafu Securities
Hot News of the Week
● The blockbuster financial data comes out! At the end of May, the scale and stock of social finance increased by 8.4% year on year
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Event: On June 14, the Central Bank released the financial statistics report for May. At the end of May, M1 decreased by 4.2% year on year and M2 increased by 7% year on year. At the end of May, the stock of social financing scale was 391.93 trillion yuan, up 8.4% year on year.
# comment:
According to the data, the scale of social financing at the end of May increased by 8.4% year on year, which was the same as last month. Recently, the pace of corporate and government bond issuance has accelerated, forming a stable support for the growth of social financing scale, which to some extent reflects the accelerated implementation of fiscal policies and the continuous optimization of social financing scale and structure.
However, the M1 data in May declined year on year, which is related to the recent standardized manual interest compensation and deposit diversion. On the one hand, under the background of cracking down on fund idling and calling a halt to manual interest compensation, some non-standard enterprise deposits decreased simultaneously. On the other hand, with the diversification of wealth management methods, in the context of downward deposit interest rates, financial products play an obvious role of "reservoir", and some demand deposits are diverted to the financial market.
Recently, the implementation of financial policies has been accelerated, and the scale and structure of social finance has been continuously optimized. The balance of various RMB loans in May was 248.73 trillion yuan, nearly a trillion yuan more than that in April, and credit resources flowed to key areas and weak links. At present, the correlation between financial scale indicators and China's economic development has gradually weakened. At the same time, the domestic economic restructuring, transformation and upgrading have brought about a "shift" in credit demand. The probability of high-quality economic and social development in the future will not depend on the rapid expansion of credit scale.
● "Tipping payment" is coming! The Central Bank approved the name change of 5 payment institutions
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Event: On June 14, the official website of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) was updated on the page "Disclosure of information on major changes in licensing of non bank payment institutions", and Wuhan Hezhong Yibao Technology Co., Ltd. changed its name to "Douyin Payment Technology Co., Ltd.".
# comment:
Up to now, 36 payment institutions have been approved to change their names, and the word "payment" has been added to their names. There are also many payment companies, such as Xunfu Information Technology Co., Ltd., Tianyi E-commerce Co., Ltd., Ruixiang Business Service Co., Ltd., whose company names still do not contain the word "payment". However, the national enterprise credit information publicity system shows that the payment institutions approved to change their names have not yet completed the formal industrial and commercial registration changes.
At present, the country attaches great importance to the standardization of the domestic payment system. Previously, the country issued relevant regulations that the same shareholder shall not directly or indirectly hold more than 10% of the shares or voting rights of two or more non bank payment institutions of the same business type, and the same actual controller shall not control two or more non bank payment institutions of the same business type (unless otherwise specified by the country). With the gradual normalization of the domestic non bank payment industry, non licensed bank payment companies such as domestic payment solution providers and payment security service providers are expected to benefit.
● US PPI fell 0.2% month on month in May, CPI data was lower than expected
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Event: Data released by the US Department of Labor on June 13 showed that the US producer price index (PPI) fell 0.2% month on month in May.
# comment:
Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the US PPI fell 0.2% month on month in May, expected to rise 0.1%. On a year-on-year basis, PPI rose 2.2% in May after rising 2.3% in April, which was also lower than the expected 2.5%. From the CPI data, the consumer price index (CPI) of the United States increased by 3.3% in May, which was lower than the 3.4% expected by experts. According to the US CPI and PPI data in May, the US inflation and labor market are cooling down. However, the slowdown of short-term inflation data in the United States will not immediately change the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance on interest rate cuts. As Federal Reserve officials said, it is necessary to further observe whether the inflation data can continue to slow down.
Federal Reserve officials will also hold four meetings in the rest of this year, in July, September, November and December. The recent US CPI and PPI data can give the Federal Reserve more confidence and enable it to cut interest rates with ease. At the same time, the data released showed that the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the first time last week was 242000, the highest level since August last year, and the market expected 225000. Since January 2022, the unemployment rate rose to 4% for the first time in May, which is still a relatively low level.
● The production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in the first five months increased by more than 30% year on year
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Event: According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on the 14th, in the first five months of this year, China's automobile production and sales reached 11.384 million and 11.496 million, up 6.5% and 8.3% year on year respectively.
# comment:
In May, I National New Energy The pace of replacing traditional fuel vehicles with automobiles continued to accelerate. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 940000 and 955000, up 31.9% and 33.3% year on year respectively. The market share climbed to 39.5% after reaching 36% in April. Recently, the automobile market policy has been continuously favorable, providing strong support for the sustained and rapid growth of new energy vehicles.
Although the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China is growing rapidly, there are also many automobile enterprises facing the problem of increasing revenue without increasing profits. To solve this problem and stand out in the future industry competition, automobile enterprises need to constantly deepen their comprehensive strength in products, technology, marketing, etc., especially through leading technical advantages to improve gross profit margin. At present, with the technology of the leading new energy vehicle enterprises in China gradually becoming mature, new energy vehicles have the advantages of replacing traditional fuel vehicles in terms of price, cost and technology. Under the background of rapid iteration of intelligent driving technology, they may focus on the intelligent driving field of new energy vehicles, including intelligent central control, laser radar, sensors, intelligent driving chips and other subdivisions.
● The central bank makes a sound! Accelerate the de stocking of commercial housing stock
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Event: On June 12, the Central Bank held a meeting in Jinan to promote the work of affordable housing refinancing, investigate and promote the pilot experience of the early rental housing loan support plan, and deploy the work of promoting affordable housing refinancing.
# comment:
The meeting pointed out that the establishment of affordable housing refinancing, encouraging and guiding financial institutions to support local state-owned enterprises to purchase the existing stock of commercial housing at a reasonable price for the allocation or lease of affordable housing in accordance with the principles of marketization and rule of law, is the financial sector's implementation of the CPC Central Committee Political Bureau's plan to comprehensively digest the stock of real estate and optimize the incremental housing Important measures to promote the construction of a new development model of real estate. The meeting stressed that, in accordance with the idea of "government guidance and market-oriented operation", we should learn from the early pilot experience, focus on promoting the implementation of affordable housing refinancing policies to achieve results, and accelerate the de stocking of commercial housing stocks.
At present, the strength of the real estate policy has significantly increased. From accelerating the de stocking of commercial housing stocks to constantly expanding the scope of the supply side "old for new" policy, this round of local policies has been implemented more quickly and comprehensively than before. Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, three first tier cities, also witnessed the relaxation of purchase and loan restrictions in May. The attitude of the NPC also further clarified the determination to stabilize the real estate market, especially the attitude to destocking and stabilizing house prices will effectively boost market confidence, and the real estate market may continue the trend of stabilization and recovery.
● The Ministry of Finance issues 50 year super long term special treasury bonds for the first time
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Event: On June 14, the Ministry of Finance issued the 50 year ultra long term special treasury bonds for the first time, with a total amount of 35 billion yuan, and the coupon rate was determined to be 2.53% by the underwriting group after competitive bidding.
# comment:
The 50 year ultra long term special treasury bonds issued this time will bear interest from June 15, 2024, and the interest will be paid semi annually on June 15 and December 15 of each year. The principal will be repaid and the last interest will be paid on June 15, 2074. Although national debt has a series of outstanding advantages, risk factors should still be considered.
Ultra long term special treasury bonds belong to bookkeeping treasury bonds. Such treasury bonds can be traded in the market during their duration, with high liquidity. The trading price will fluctuate according to the market situation. Individual investors should pay attention to the risk of market interest rate and treasury bond liquidity. At present, the domestic market interest rate is in a downward trend. The interest rate of ultra long term treasury bonds is attractive to some extent, and the price of ultra long term treasury bonds is also in an upward trend. However, attention should be paid to the subsequent rise in interest rates. If the subsequent market interest rate changes its trend and shows an upward trend, then the price of ultra long term special treasury bonds will decline accordingly.
● Wu Qing, Chairman of the CSRC: comprehensively implement the supervision of "long teeth with thorns"
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Event: On June 12, the People's Daily published an article on the front page, "How to accelerate the construction of a modern financial system with Chinese characteristics". The article points out that a complete and effective financial supervision system should be established and a series of systems and policies should be introduced quickly.
# comment:
As for how to strengthen financial supervision, Wu Qing, the chairman of the CSRC, said that it is necessary to accelerate the construction of a comprehensive and three-dimensional capital market supervision system and fully implement the "long teeth and thorns" of supervision. Wu Qing pointed out that the supervision of listed companies should highlight the whole chain supervision and improve the investment value of listed companies, and continue to work around the three aspects of strict listing, strict and continuous supervision, and increased delisting supervision. Institutional supervision should promote the return to the original source, become better and stronger, further compact the "gatekeeper" responsibility, guide various industry institutions such as securities and futures funds to correct their business philosophy, and improve their compliance level, professional service ability and core competitiveness.
Prior to this, Wu Qing, the chairman of the CSRC, publicly said that he would continue to make efforts to eradicate the soil and conditions of corruption, accelerate the formation of a clean and healthy capital market ecology, and set the tone for the development direction of the capital market in the future. With the gradual implementation of various policies, an open, transparent and resilient capital market is worth looking forward to.
● The second order after the new "National Ninth Article"! The two core points of the IPO meeting are concerned by regulators
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Event: The 16th review meeting of the Listing Review Committee was held on June 14, and the review results showed that Beijing Capprin Optoelectronics Technology Co., Ltd.'s initial offering met the issuance conditions, listing conditions and information disclosure requirements.
# comment:
After the launch of the new "National Nine Rules" in April this year, the regulator stressed the need to strictly supervise the whole chain from IPO listing to delisting, strictly control the access to issuance and listing, strictly supervise listed companies continuously, and strengthen delisting supervision. Therefore, for enterprises planning to IPO on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, the quality of science and technology innovation is undoubtedly the focus to consider whether they are qualified or not. At the same time, in the context of the phased tightening of IPO rhythm, two consecutive companies proposed to be listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board have held meetings recently. The focus of face-to-face inquiry between the exchange and enterprises has also become the focus of the market and other queuing enterprises.
At present, the supervision at the meeting stage focuses on two core points: first, the performance of enterprises needs to be sustainable in a certain period of time in the future, that is, if they are successfully listed in the future, they should try to avoid significant fluctuations or declines in performance, and there should be feasible countermeasures. Second, the products and technologies of enterprises need to be advanced and competitive in the industry. At the same time, the enterprise's financial risk, operational independence and other issues were also mentioned in the on-site inquiry.
● In May, the consumer price of domestic residents rose by 0.3% year on year, with prices rising steadily
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Event: In May 2024, the national consumer price will rise by 0.3% year on year, the food price will fall by 2.0%, the non food price will rise by 0.8%, and the PPI will fall by 1.4% year on year in May.
# comment:
Judging from the consumer price data of May, the consumer market generally operated smoothly in May, and the national CPI fell seasonally on a month on month basis, with the same year-on-year growth rate as last month. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 0.6% year on year, continuing to rise moderately. It is worth noting that pork prices have turned to rise under the influence of continuous capacity reduction for 15 consecutive months. Pork prices are strong, supporting food prices.
According to PPI data, in May, affected by the rising prices of some international bulk commodities and the improvement of the supply and demand relationship in the domestic industrial product market, PPI rose 0.2% month on month, changing the continuous downward trend of the first six months. Among them, the price of means of production increased by 0.4% from 0.2% down last month. Affected by the rising price of non-ferrous metals in the international market, the price of domestic non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry rose 3.9% month on month, including the prices of copper smelting, aluminum smelting and gold smelting rose 7.0%, 3.4% and 2.8% respectively.
Risk warning:
The information provided by this public account is used for investment in the securities market, which may lead to investment risks; Some of the contents involve high-risk financial products, please refer to investors carefully.
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