A share sudden diving, find the reason| Federal Reserve Sina Finance Sina.com

　 Source: Securities Star

The market opened lower and moved lower all day, and the three major indexes fell more than 1%.

On the market, the military industry shares once rose, Xinyu Guoke 20cm limit rise, Great Wall Military Industry Price limit. Electromagnetic shielding concept stocks rose sharply against the trend, Rumble electron 、 Zhengye Technology 、 Water Shares And other trading limits. AI PC concept stocks continued to be active, Yingli Shares "20CM" 3 connecting plate. On the downside, gold and nonferrous concept stocks adjusted collectively.

In terms of sectors, PEEK materials, AI PC, secondary new shares, military industry and other sectors led the rise, while precious metals, non-ferrous metals, education, short plays and other sectors led the decline. More than 4500 stocks fell in the whole market.

By the end of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index had fallen 1.33%, the Shenzhen Composite Index had fallen 1.56%, and the GEM Index had fallen 1.38%. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 847.7 billion yuan, 16.5 billion yuan higher than the previous trading day.

Overseas risk shocks A-share

Today, the A-share market fell into adjustment again, with nonferrous metals and precious metals leading the decline again. The real estate industry and its industrial chain continued the trend of differentiation and decline, while the PV sector, which was strengthened yesterday afternoon, also failed to continue its rise. As a result, the term "A-share" once again fell on the hot search list today.

It is worth noting that resource stocks such as nonferrous metals and precious metals fell sharply today, or due to the callback of the commodity futures market, which is behind the delayed expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

On the news side, the external commodity futures market was retreated across the board, with the overnight gold futures price falling 1.8% sharply, and the international copper futures price, which fell more than 1% overnight, fell nearly 4% again today. Behind this, the Federal Reserve released a heavy signal last night. The latest minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting show that there has been a lack of progress in reducing inflation in recent months. At the same time, the participants discussed whether they would be willing to raise interest rates if the inflation rate did not continue to decline towards the target of 2%.

The above statement means that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut widely expected by the market may be postponed again. In April, the economist team of Goldman Sachs Group said that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, the first in July and the second in November. But David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs Group, has updated his latest view, saying that the United States needs to deal with more severe inflation, and the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year.

Under the influence of this news, the yield of medium and long-term US bonds rose. The two-year US bonds rose 4 basis points to 4.86%, a new three week high. The benchmark 10-year US bonds rose 1.2 basis points to 4.43%. The interest rate cut was delayed and the yield of US bonds rose. The related events have severely reduced the bull market of commodity futures and also impacted the global risk assets. Last night, the three major indexes of US stocks collectively closed down, while the three major indexes of Europe fell across the board. A shares and Hong Kong shares also suffered today.

As for the impact on A-shares, it may have emotional impact in the short term. According to the Securities Times, insiders believe that the postponement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut will have a temporary impact on A-shares, but the market may soon return to the original slow track. On the one hand, A-share valuation is still at a historical low and has a high cost performance ratio in the world; On the other hand, the favorable policy will help the macro-economy continue to improve and support the index to further strengthen.

In today's rising direction, the military industry, electromagnetic shielding and other directions that are stronger against the trend belong to the lower plate that was relatively marginal before, which has limited driving effect on the market. In addition, in the context of shrinking, some funds began to flow into the Beijing Stock Exchange. Today, many individual shares of the Beijing Stock Exchange rose by more than 20% due to intraday changes. The Associated Press of Finance believes that, on the whole, the current market is still viewed as a sector shock structure, and in the future, we can pay attention to the emergence of a new direction of rising after the index stops falling again and stabilizes.

The National Development and Reform Commission, the Central Bank, etc

On the news side, the market today has many good things to note, and the NDRC, the Central Bank, and the CSRC have all made the latest announcements.

First of all, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China and other four departments issued the Notice on Key Work of Cost Reduction in 2024, saying that they should implement the key tasks of cost reduction proposed in the Government Work Report, fully support the high-quality development of the real economy, and focus on organizing and implementing 22 tasks in 7 aspects.

1、 Improve the targeted effectiveness of preferential tax policies. Including: optimizing preferential tax policies and strengthening supervision of enterprise related charges.

2、 Improve the quality and efficiency of financial services for the real economy. Including: creating a good monetary and financial environment, promoting the steady decline of loan interest rates, guiding the precise drip irrigation of financial resources, continuing to optimize financial services, and reducing the exchange rate hedging costs of small and medium-sized enterprises.

3、 Continue to reduce institutional transaction costs. It includes: creating a fair market environment for competition, strengthening intellectual property protection, standardizing bidding and government procurement systems, improving the long-term mechanism for preventing and resolving arrears of enterprise accounts, and optimizing the foreign investment environment.

4、 Relieve the pressure of labor cost of enterprises. Including: continue to reduce the implementation period of some social insurance rates by stages until the end of 2025, support enterprises to stabilize and expand their posts, and strengthen the joint construction and sharing of public training bases.

5、 Reduce the cost of raw materials for enterprise land use. Including: reducing the cost of land use for enterprises and strengthening the guarantee of energy resources.

6、 Promote logistics to improve quality, efficiency and cost. Including: implementing actions to reduce logistics costs, improving modern logistics system, and optimizing transportation structure.

7、 Encourage enterprises to tap potential internally. Including: support the transformation and upgrading of enterprises to reduce costs, and guide enterprises to improve production and operation efficiency.

It is worth noting that the notice pointed out that the important role of the reform efficiency of loan market quoted rate (LPR) and the market-oriented adjustment mechanism of deposit interest rate should be continuously played, and on the basis of maintaining the basic stability of the net interest margin of commercial banks, the cost of social comprehensive financing should be steadily reduced.

Secondly, the CSRC also has the latest voice today.

May 23, 2024 Financial Street On the forum series activities - the theme exchange activity of "capital market empowering new quality productivity", Zhou Xiaozhou, Director of the General Department of the CSRC, said that the CSRC would accelerate the implementation of the "1+N" policy system of the capital market, closely focus on serving the development of new quality productivity, further improve the basic system of the capital market, and further play the role of the capital market. It includes three aspects:

First, give better play to the function of the capital market and promote the agglomeration of high-quality production factors into the field of new quality productivity. The second is to continue to improve the capital market system and enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of new quality productivity. Third, strengthen the supervision of the capital market and promote financial innovation on the market-oriented and legal track.

A-share market is not over yet

Finally, return to the A-share market. At the current time point, investors may be more concerned about whether this round of market can continue?

First, for overseas liquidity risk, Huatai Securities It is believed that the probability of the first interest rate cut at the FOMC meeting in July has rebounded, but the first interest rate cut in September or later is still the benchmark situation. Looking ahead, the expectation of overseas interest rate cuts may return to a "pendulum", and the Federal Reserve's decision may be "data dependent". The follow-up observation windows are 05.31 (April PCE inflation), 06.07 (May non-agricultural employment), and 06.12 (May CPI, June FOMC meeting).

Secondly, for the domestic environment, Huatai Securities summarized three points: ① the economic data structure continued to differentiate in April, the scissors gap between industry/export and consumption widened, and the resilience of mass consumption was stronger than high-end consumption; ② The strength of the real estate policy exceeded expectations, and the effect was yet to be tested. From the end of the policy to the end of the sales, the real estate/insurance was dominant. However, the difference between this round and the previous real estate market might lie in that the boom of the varieties in the cycle rose first after the renewal cycle and external demand pulled some parts; ③ From both macro and micro perspectives, the export chain boom has a certain sustainability, and the chips are not crowded yet, but short-term super rising varieties may have callback pressure.

Looking back, Huatai Securities judged that the sustainability of the export chain and the chips guiding the market may not be over. There are three main bases:

1) Prosperity sustainability: from a macro perspective, it is judged that export growth began to pick up in 23Q4, and the current "canary" guides export growth or still up for 1-2 quarters; From a micro perspective, under the holistic approach, the three elements of replenishment (replenishment willingness/replenishment constraints/replenishment signs) guide the export chain with little excess capacity pressure to actively replenish its inventory or continue to do so for at least 1-2 quarters;

2) Chip crowding: after reviewing the 1Q24 public offering positions, the consensus of public offering on the export chain has improved, and the allocation coefficient of the export chain is still lower than that of the hub since 2010, only the allocation coefficient and quantile of marine equipment are higher;

3) Transaction crowdedness: the turnover rate and the proportion of turnover are investigated. The transaction crowdedness of the export chain may reach a high level, and some extreme industries may have callback pressure, and the high and low switch will be made along the transaction crowdedness.

In terms of specific allocation, Huatai Securities suggested that the dividend position should be appropriately reduced, and the public consumption of light industry/chemical fiber/chemical raw materials/insurance/Hong Kong stocks driven by policies and improved performance should be increased.

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