Weng Rongtao, an intern of the Southern Finance Omni media, Zou Liuwen, Ma Yingying, reported from Guangzhou
In terms of the domestic futures market, in the energy and chemical sector, fuel fell 1.11% and crude oil fell 0.66% in the week; In the black sector, iron ore rose 2.06% in the week and coking coal fell 1.65%; In the base metals sector, lithium carbonate fell 1.75%, Shanghai Nickel rose 6.01%, Shanghai Copper rose 3.77%, and Shanghai Zinc rose 0.42% last week; Precious metal plate, gold and silver rose for two consecutive weeks, silver rose 5.05%; agriculture products In the sector, palm oil rose 4.83%, eggs fell 0.15% and pigs rose 1.02% in the week.
Hot spot of trading quotation
Hot spot 1: International crude oil fluctuates downward, and the retail price of refined oil is limited or falls for the first time in a row this year
Multiple factors, such as the easing of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the rise of the EIA energy supply and the increase of the US crude oil inventory, have more obvious negative effects on the oil price. The international crude oil price has declined as a whole recently.
"In this round of pricing cycle, international crude oil mainly fell in a narrow range, Brent crude oil mainly fluctuated above $80/barrel, and the upward pressure level of crude oil was relatively strong. Recently, the change rate of crude oil continued to operate within the negative range, and the corresponding retail price limit of refined oil was expected to be lowered." Zhuochuang Information Analyst Xu Lei said that at 24:00 on May 15, the retail price limit of domestic refined oil products might open an adjustment window and usher in the "second consecutive decline" for the first time in the year.
Xu Lei analyzed that the oil price was mainly affected by the expectation of the Federal Reserve to postpone the interest rate cut and the prospect of oil demand. However, OPEC+the Alliance voluntarily extended the production reduction measures in the second half of the year and the tension in the Middle East has not yet eased, which has brought some positive support to crude oil. However, short positions dominated the crude oil price, which fluctuated narrowly within the negative range of this round of crude oil change rate, and the retail price of refined oil continued to be expected to decline.
Looking ahead to the future, Xu Wenwen, an analyst with Longzhong Information, believes that OPEC+has a firm position on production reduction, geographical instability still exists, and demand side pressure has weakened. Under the background of basically facing the good, the crude oil price still has positive support, and the probability of the next round of refined oil price increase is expected to be large.
After the opening of this round of price adjustment window, the retail price of domestic 92 # mainstream gasoline terminal rose around 8 yuan/liter, and the retail price of gasoline was still slightly higher than that of the same period last year. " Xu Lei believes that the US PPI growth in April was higher than expected, and the US interest rate remained high, increasing the concern of the Federal Reserve about the delay of interest rate cuts, and continuing to put pressure on crude oil prices. However, the uncertainty of tensions in the Middle East has strained the supply side, and it is expected that crude oil will decline slowly. In the next round, based on the current crude oil price, the change rate after recalculation is still in the negative range, and it is expected that the retail price of refined oil will be lowered at the initial stage of price adjustment.
Wang Yanting also believes that the trend of international crude oil is still weak in the short term, the probability of a new round of retail price reduction is large, and the news is still under pressure in the face of the late market. In addition, the demand for gasoline and diesel has no positive stimulus, and it is difficult to improve the demand. However, since the middle of the year, the number of local refinery maintenance manufacturers has increased. In addition, in May, the number of main unit refineries has also decreased, and the overall domestic resource supply will shrink. The pressure of excess supply of market resources may be relieved to some extent, which will support the overall market. In addition, the current price of gasoline and diesel has fallen to a low level, and some businesses have considered appropriate replenishment, and the market may recover. However, considering the uncertainty of the news, the main and local refineries are cautious in pushing prices, and the gasoline and diesel market may stabilize.
Hot spot 2: Precious metal prices have soared and plummeted, and silver may be on the edge of a bull market
The sharp rise and fall of precious metal prices affect the nerves of the market.
After nearly a month of adjustment, the precious metals that had risen like a rainbow ushered in the highlight moment again. The latest data shows that the spot gold price in London hit the highest of 2422.709 US dollars/ounce, approaching the record of 2431.78 US dollars/ounce set on April 12; The spot silver price in London exceeded $30/ounce for the first time in more than 10 years, reaching a maximum of $31.592/ounce.
Analysts said that in this round of recovery in the precious metal market, gold prices continued to break the record, so gold attracted more market attention. Although silver has performed well, its price has not exceeded the historical extreme value of 49.79 US dollars/ounce hit in 2011. However, supported by potential factors such as the widening gap between silver supply and demand, silver may be in the front end of the strongest upward cycle in history.
The market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is rising, which is an important help to promote the sharp rise of precious metal prices. Shen Enxian, chief strategist of Galaxy Futures, said: "The US CPI data in April weakened more than expected, and the superimposed economic data reappeared weak. The market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut rose, market sentiment improved, and precious metal prices showed strong short-term performance."
Gong Ming, an analyst with Jinrui Futures, said that in the future, if the inflation data in the United States weakens synchronously and the economic employment is still less than expected, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates earlier and further promote the rise of precious metal prices. "At present, the United States is at the end of the policy tightening cycle and is facing the pressure of sustained economic downturn. It is expected that the long-term allocation value of precious metals will continue to emerge under the expectation of interest rate cuts and the fermentation of risk aversion."
From the historical impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on precious metal prices, Gong Ming said that the two rounds of interest rate cuts in 1995 and 2019 were implemented against the background of little downward pressure on the economy. These two rounds of interest rate cuts were both precautionary, and the Federal Reserve stopped cutting interest rates after 2-3 cuts.
In terms of the gold price performance at that time, Gong Ming said: "The gold price performed well in the early stage of interest rate reduction, and there is still some momentum to rise after the official interest rate reduction. Compared with the current round of monetary policy cycle of the Federal Reserve, the interest rate reduction of precious metals may not be over."
Although the price of precious metals has increased significantly since this year, the insiders are still optimistic about its future performance.
As far as gold is concerned, Goldman Sachs pointed out in its recently released report that the "gold rush" of central banks in various countries, especially emerging market central banks, has supported the gold price to rise for a long time, and the future geopolitical situation and financial shocks will continue to drive the central bank's demand for gold. With the strong demand from emerging market central banks and Asian households and the expectation that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates, the gold price may have just begun to rise, and it is expected that the gold price will rise to 2700 dollars/ounce by the end of the year.
Xiong Yuan, chief economist of Guosheng Securities, also said that in the future, the central bank may still buy gold under the influence of factors such as currency oversupply and geographical situation. Although the short-term gold price may have a callback risk under the disturbance of transactional factors, the overall view on it remained biased during the year.
For silver, Liu Guangyuan said that although there is uncertainty in the market, the fundamentals of silver are still strong. In particular, it is necessary to pay close attention to the changes in the incremental demand of the industrial sector, especially the photovoltaic industry, which will be a key factor affecting the future trend of the silver market. With the increasing global emphasis on clean energy and sustainable development, silver, as a key material in the photovoltaic industry, is expected to further increase its market demand, thus bringing new growth opportunities to the silver market. "There are reasons to believe that the silver market may be on the edge of a bull market," said Liu Guangyuan.
Highlights of industrial policies
News 1: The Bank of Japan "abandons debt to protect foreign exchange". Is this round of yen depreciation over?
On May 13 local time, the Bank of Japan rarely "abandoned debt to protect foreign exchange" and reduced the purchase scale of Japanese government bonds, which was interpreted by the market as saving the yen. After the action, Japanese bonds were sold off, the yield rose, and the yen rebounded against the dollar. However, the market basically believes that actions are effective in the short term and depend on the US Japan interest rate spread in the long term.
The US side's statement on the same day showed that it still held a wait-and-see attitude towards the joint intervention of the US and Japan in the foreign exchange market.
On May 13 local time, the Bank of Japan cut its bond purchases from 475 billion yen to 425 billion yen for 5 to 10 year Japanese government bonds. The yield of Japanese government bonds rose along with it. The yield of 20-year Japanese bonds rose to 1.77%, the highest since 2013, and the yield of 30-year Japanese bonds reached the highest level since at least 2011. The yield of benchmark 10-year Japanese government bonds also rose to 0.96%, only slightly lower than the peak level in more than a decade. The US dollar plunged more than 40 points against the Japanese yen to 155.49.
Takahiro Otsuka, senior fixed income strategist of Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, said: "The Bank of Japan's reduction in the scale of government bond purchases is quite unexpected, which may help to improve the yield of Japanese bonds. Therefore, it is difficult not to regard this action as a response to the recent yen depreciation. The Japanese bond market may also experience more volatility as a result."
In fact, the Japanese government may have intervened in the foreign exchange market. On April 29, although the Ministry of Finance of Japan did not reply on whether to intervene in the exchange rate, the Deputy Minister of Finance of Japan, Makoto Kanda, said that he would continue to take appropriate measures to deal with excessive foreign exchange fluctuations, and announced whether to intervene in the exchange rate at the end of May. The market speculated that the Japanese authorities may have carried out two foreign exchange interventions on April 29 and May 2, which made the yen rapidly rise from 160 to around 152 against the dollar.
But before that, Bank of Japan Governor Yoshio Ueda had always maintained reservations about monetary policy intervention in the foreign exchange market. On May 8, he suddenly said that the rapid and unilateral decline of the yen was unfavorable to Japan's economy and was not advisable. He might take monetary policy measures against fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. The latest summary of the Bank of Japan's April meeting also shows that members of the Monetary Committee are paying close attention to the impact of the weak yen on inflation and believe that it may accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes. This led investors to speculate that the Bank of Japan would raise interest rates in advance rather than delay, and reduce the size of bond purchases.
Ataru Okumura, senior interest rate strategist of SMBC Nikko Securities in Tokyo, wrote in a report that the urgency of the Bank of Japan to take action to support the yen has risen to the level in November 2022. It is expected that the Bank of Japan will take action at the next meeting in June, including changing the scale of bond purchases. Shoki Omori, chief strategist of Mizuho Securities in Tokyo, said: "The Bank of Japan seems to be under pressure from the government to take action to cope with the yen depreciation and loose financial environment."
Japanese bond investors are still worried about the Bank of Japan's move. Previously, the Global Fund had sold 10-year Japanese bonds for 12 consecutive weeks, recording the longest consecutive selling since 2014, and only in May did it reverse this trend. Katsutoshi Inadome, senior strategist of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management, said: "The market is not sure whether this reduction in the scale of bond purchases is a one-off. In fact, another reduction may occur at any time, possibly as early as this Friday, which will continue to bring upward pressure on Japanese bond yields."
News 2: The "entropy effect" of the Federal Reserve's postponement of the monetary policy shift
As for the extent and frequency of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the conclusions given by the institutions have also been greatly reduced, which may bring the global economy into the suffering of "entropy effect".
"Entropy increasing effect" is a physical concept. In short, "entropy" is an indicator to measure the degree of chaos in the objective world. The increase of entropy means the increase of chaos, while the decrease of entropy means the decrease of chaos.
From the sound of "interest rate reduction may be a signal of economic normalization" released at the beginning of the year to the clear statement that "it may take longer to have confidence in interest rate reduction" after the latest monetary policy meeting, the public words of the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, who were different from each other, quickly cooled the market's enthusiasm for the Federal Reserve to relax its monetary policy. As for the extent and frequency of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the conclusions given by the institutions have also been greatly reduced, which may bring the global economy into the suffering of "entropy effect".
Stimulated by the weakening expectation of the Federal Reserve for interest rate cuts, the US dollar index has continued to rise this year, and non US currencies have collectively fallen, of which the euro has fallen 2.76%. On the one hand, this has increased the consumption cost of the euro area, making the weak consumption momentum even weaker; On the other hand, it has raised the price of imported products in the euro area, strengthened the inflation stickiness of the service industry in the region, and challenged the inflation easing situation that the euro area has not easily achieved.
The analysis found that the service sector inflation rate in the euro area is still as high as 4.0%, the investor confidence index in the region has been hovering in a negative range for 18 months, and the manufacturing manager's index (PMI) has been kept below the 50 rise and fall line, among which the German manufacturing PMI has contracted downward for nine consecutive months and is far away from the rise and fall line. Under the slowdown of the Federal Reserve and the continuous disturbance of the strong dollar, The economic outlook of the euro area is not optimistic.
The UK economy continued to experience negative growth in the third and fourth quarters of last year. Under the pressure of the strong US dollar, the pound fell back in three months in the first four months of this year, with a depreciation rate of more than 1.5 percentage points. Affected, the growth rate of UK retail sales has declined for two consecutive months. In addition, the unemployment rate in the UK has risen to 4.2%, with the growth rate in the first quarter hitting the highest in the past three years, reflecting that the labor market is cooling down. If the economic momentum of the consumer market and incremental consumption is not improved, it is not ruled out that the British economy will decline again.
Finally, look at Japan. The strong upward movement of the US dollar has made the yen break through the important threshold, falling below 160 for the first time in more than 34 years. The most direct impact of the continued depreciation of the yen on the Japanese economy is the rise in the price of imported products, and the price of more than 10000 domestic products has risen. Although the improvement of inflation is the goal pursued by the Japanese government, the cost inflation, especially the import cost inflation, is the last thing the Japanese government wants to see, because this kind of inflation can not stimulate consumption, but will inhibit consumption. The marginal decline of Japan's private consumption for 14 consecutive months is the best evidence.
In addition, although the devaluation of the yen can benefit large enterprises from exports, the survival environment of small and medium-sized enterprises is under further pressure. Last year, 9053 bankrupt enterprises with debts of more than 10 million yen reached. If the devaluation of the yen further increases the pressure of domestic product price reduction, the bankruptcy trend of Japanese small and medium-sized enterprises will intensify.
Looking forward to future performance
Energy and chemical sector
Crude oil: In the short term, focus on OPEC+may extend production reduction and the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates. The oil price range is volatile. In the medium and long term, the main producing countries may increase production to grab market share. In addition, the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates, so there is some room for oil prices to decrease before the summer peak consumption season. However, with the fall of the Federal Reserve's interest rate and the return of global oil consumption, attention is paid to the rhythmic mismatch between oil supply and demand. European and American crude oil futures may show a fluctuating upward trend in stages. (Guangjin Futures)
Black series plate
Iron ore: at the industrial level, the current iron ore supply and demand fundamentals are neutral and weak. On the supply side, the shipment of overseas mainstream mines rebounded on a month on month basis, and the non mainstream shipments contributed a large year-on-year increase, helping the port inventory accumulate rapidly; On the demand side, the recovery of the blast furnace of the downstream steel plant is relatively cautious, and the molten iron output has basically completed bottoming recently.
Although the actual supply and demand fundamentals are loose, the current macro expectation support is still strong. Recently, a number of first tier and second tier cities in China have again introduced real estate stimulus policies. Recently, the Ministry of Finance has also released arrangements for the issuance of ultra long term special treasury bonds, which forms an effective support for the demand expectation of terminal sectors such as real estate and infrastructure in the lower reaches of the black market. In addition, the overseas market's expectation for the interest rate cut of Wachovia has strengthened again, and the mineral price may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. （ Guotai Jun'an Futures)
Non ferrous metal plate
Shanghai Zinc: The price of Shanghai Zinc fluctuated strongly this week, ranging from 23255/t to 24025 yuan/t, with an amplitude of 3.25%. Macroscopically, the US CPI in April increased by 3.4% year on year, in line with market expectations, and the previous value was 3.5%; In April, the core CPI dropped to 3.6% year-on-year, the lowest since April 2021; The overall inflation level superimposed with the weak non farm data may suggest that the US economy is slowing down gradually, and the market may continue to revise interest rate expectations during the year, which is bad for the US dollar index, supporting the non-ferrous sector; Domestically, Hangzhou and other cities have increased their policies on the property market, and the central bank has cancelled the lower limit of the commercial individual housing loan interest rate policy for the first and second housing nationwide, which has a good macro atmosphere at home and abroad. Fundamentally, the supply is expected to tighten, and the zinc price fluctuates at a high level. Fundamentally, the supply of overseas ore ends is constantly disturbed, the shortage of ore ends has not been alleviated temporarily, and processing fees may still have downward space, supporting the continuous strengthening of zinc price. From the perspective of downstream consumption, this year's peak consumption season was compared with previous years, and the consumption performance was flat. The continuous downturn of black price in the early stage and the high zinc price led to the lack of confidence of galvanized enterprises. However, last week, the increase of galvanized pipes due to the rise of black price and profit led to the increase of orders, the decline of finished product inventory, and the increase of construction. （ Ruida Futures ）
Agricultural products
Eggs: The supply of eggs is too much, but the short-term egg market atmosphere has improved, the demand for eggs in the production and marketing areas has increased, and the support on the feed side has become stronger. Egg prices are not weak in the off-season before the plum rain season. However, the southern plum rain season will come in the future, and the recent increase may be limited, and the pressure on the egg plate before the Dragon Boat Festival stocking remains. (Zhengxin Futures)
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