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As the enterprise with the highest market value of A-share, Guizhou Moutai The frequent change of command also caused market concern to some extent.
The news about the change of leadership in Moutai has finally settled.
On the evening of April 29, Guizhou Moutai (600519. SH) announced that according to the relevant documents of the People's Government of Guizhou Province, Zhang Deqin was recommended as the candidate for the director and chairman of the company, and Ding Xiongjun was recommended not to serve as the chairman and director of the company.
The reporter from First Finance and Economics noticed that Ding Xiongjun did not appear in the list of proposed participants in the news of the proposed 2023 and 2024 quarterly performance briefing released by the company on the evening of April 26 a few days ago.
This is the fourth time in the past six years that the leader of Guizhou Moutai has changed. Zhang Deqin, the successor of this time, belongs to the "old Moutai people" and grew up from the grass roots of Guizhou Moutai in his early years.
Generally speaking, Guizhou Moutai and the chairman of the parent company Moutai Group shoulder to shoulder. This time, according to the announcement of Guizhou Moutai, Zhang Deqin also succeeded Ding Xiongjun as the new chairman of Moutai Group.
As the enterprise with the highest A-share market value, Guizhou Moutai's frequent leadership changes also caused market concern to some extent.
Observers who have studied Kweichow Moutai for many years told China Business News that the frequent change of the head of the company is a good thing for the stable development of a company, because it may affect the strategic stability of the company.
When the first three chairmen changed, the liquor industry of Guizhou Moutai was in an upward phase. Now, the liquor industry has entered a period of deep adjustment. Recently, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has become the focus of the market due to the instability of the wholesale price.
Can the new chairman maintain good wine prices? In recent years, behind the frequent change of chairman, Guizhou Moutai has gradually strengthened its control over sales channels. The new chairman still has to face the problem of how to balance the interests of direct marketing channels and wholesaler channels.
Ding Xiongjun leaves office
Ding Xiongjun will succeed Gao Weidong as the new leader of Guizhou Moutai at the end of August 2021.
After Ding Xiongjun took charge, the operating revenue of Guizhou Moutai increased from 106.19 billion yuan in 2021 to 147.694 billion yuan in 2023, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies also increased from 52.46 billion yuan in 2021 to 74.734 billion yuan in 2023.
During Ding Xiongjun's tenure, in order to promote performance growth, Guizhou Moutai frequently optimized product structure and expanded direct sales channels.
Among them, the expansion of direct sales channels contributed greatly to the performance growth of Guizhou Moutai.
In March 2022, Guizhou Moutai launched the digital sales platform "i Moutai" APP in the direct sales channel segment. Guizhou Moutai direct marketing channels mainly include self operated and "i Moutai" digital marketing platform channels.
The direct sales channel revenue of Guizhou Moutai will rise from 24.029 billion yuan in 2021 to 67.233 billion yuan in 2023. In 2023, "i Moutai" will achieve sales revenue of 22.374 billion yuan, accounting for more than 30% of direct sales revenue.
Ding Xiongjun is also trying to promote the young and fashionable signal of Moutai brand. From ice cream to coffee to chocolate, he frequently crosses the border, but the effect remains to be observed.
During Ding Xiongjun's tenure, he also raised the factory price of Maotai liquor. From November 2023, Guizhou Maotai officially raised the factory price of 53 degree Maotai liquor (Feitian, Wuxing), with an average increase of about 20%. The factory price of Feitian Moutai was also raised to 1169 yuan.
After nearly six years, the company raised the ex factory price again, which exceeded the market expectations. This price increase does not involve the terminal price increase, but the main part of the price increase is the profit cake of the wholesalers.
"In the past two years, Ding Xiongjun has realized the brand activation and rejuvenation of Guizhou Moutai through product diversification and direct marketing reform, and through the beauty of Moutai, cross-border cooperation and other ways. It should be said that these measures have improved the brand reputation and corporate profitability of Guizhou Moutai, and Guizhou Moutai has also maintained a stable and high-speed growth trend during Ding Xiongjun's period; Last year, the sales expenses of Guizhou Moutai rose by 40%, which may also be related to the implementation of a large number of brand landing promotion activities, the positive cross-border attempts of Guizhou Moutai, and the investment in the internationalization of Moutai. " Cai Xuefei, an analyst of the wine industry, told the reporter of China Business News.
In the past six years, the chairman has changed four terms
After May 2018, in the eyes of the outside world, the chairman of Guizhou Moutai was replaced like a horse watching a flower.
Before that, the chairman of Guizhou Moutai was Yuan Renguo, who grew up step by step from the company's front-line liquor making staff. He steered Guizhou Maotai for 18 years. Under the leadership of Yuan Renguo, Guizhou Moutai has developed a huge dealer network system. Both special dealers and Maotai liquor stores have played an important role in making Guizhou Moutai stronger and bigger. However, with the increasing premium ability of Feitian Moutai liquor brand, when the products are under the joint control of manufacturers, resulting in long-term supply exceeding demand, The price chaos of Maotai Liquor also started from dealers, even price rent-seeking and manufacturer price out of control.
On May 6, 2018, Li Baofang succeeded Yuan Renguo and officially became the new chairman of the company. At the beginning of Li Baofang's term of office, it coincided with the recovery of the whole liquor industry. As the leader of the liquor industry, Guizhou Moutai was paid more attention by the market due to the soaring price of its main product Moutai.
At the time of the soaring price of Maotai liquor, a huge round of anti-corruption action was launched in Guizhou Maotai, and the marketing system of Maotai liquor itself was also the prelude to reform. In the process of this change, a large number of illegal Moutai liquor dealers were cleared out. At the same time, many senior executives were also investigated for bribery, including Yuan Renguo.
Li Baofang once responded to the reasons why the company should carry out marketing system reform in a general meeting of shareholders. He once said that the traditional marketing system has extensive management, a single channel, too much discretion, and resource allocation is not open, fair, and transparent, forming the space and soil for power rent-seeking. With the economic and social development and changes, the existing marketing system of Moutai is relatively traditional, single, incompatible, uncoordinated and other contradictions and problems are more prominent; The marketing system is not perfect, and self operated channels and social channels have not formed effective complementation; Market flattening is not high, and the ability to regulate and balance the market is insufficient.
Under Li Baofang's iron hand reform, Guizhou Moutai's direct sales channels began to expand. He is also paying attention to the development of series liquor, trying to break the dominance of Maotai liquor.
In March 2020, Li Baofang stepped down and was replaced by Gao Weidong, but his tenure did not exceed two years. However, in the eyes of the outside world, Gao Weidong has not left too deep a mark on the development of Maotai Group. Later, Gao Weidong was also sentenced to life for taking bribes of hundreds of millions of yuan.
Ding Xiongjun served as Chairman of Moutai Group for two years and eight months.
It can be said that after Ding Xiongjun took office, he continued the direct marketing channel of Li Baofang era and expanded the development idea of Moutai series liquor.
In the past six years, the chairman of Guizhou Moutai has changed four times. From Li Baofang to Gao Weidong, and then to Ding Xiongjun, these were not born in the wine industry, but all descended into Maotai as officials.
At present, Zhang Deqin, who succeeded Ding Xiongjun, has not only been struggling in the liquor industry for many years, but also an old Moutai man.
According to public data, he entered the Guizhou Moutai Liquor Workshop after graduation in July 1995, and served as the assistant to the general manager of the company and the director of the liquor warehouse workshop from April 2004 to May 2010.
From May 2010 to December 2011, Zhang Deqin was promoted to assistant general manager of Maotai Group, and also served as deputy secretary of the party committee, chairman and general manager of Guizhou Maotai Distillery (Group) Co., Ltd.
From December 2011 to August 2018, he successively served as Deputy General Manager of Maotai Group, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of Guizhou Maotai Distillery (Group) Co., Ltd.
From June 2019 to July 2019, Zhang Deqin briefly left the wine industry and then returned to the wine industry. After returning, his identity has become the head of Guizhou Xijiu Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd.
It is worth mentioning that Xi Jiu Holding is a group company established after Xi Jiu split from Moutai Group, behind which is the wholly-owned shareholding of the State owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Guizhou Province. Before assuming the post of Chairman of Moutai Group, he was the Secretary and Chairman of the Party Committee of Guizhou Xijiu Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., and the Secretary and Chairman of the Party Committee of Guizhou Xijiu Co., Ltd.
The channel game is still in progress
Over the years, in the process of frequent changes in the chairman of Guizhou Moutai, we can see that the internal control of the channel is strengthening step by step.
In 2018, Guizhou Moutai's direct sales channel revenue was 4.376 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 6%. By 2023, the direct sales channel revenue of Guizhou Moutai will reach 67.233 billion yuan, accounting for 44.65%. In the first quarter of 2024, the proportion of Guizhou Moutai direct sales channel in the main business income will slightly decrease to 42.33%.
The promotion of direct marketing channel reform in Moutai has touched the interests of dealers. A liquor dealer told China Business News that because the quota of Maotai liquor means huge income, many dealers in Maotai are not satisfied with some new policies, but they dare to be angry.
At present, Zhang Deqin, the successor, has to face the problem of how to balance the direct sales channel and the wholesale channel.
"Zhang Deqin has a better understanding of the development history and logic of Guizhou Moutai. As the new chairman of the company, Zhang Deqin still has to face the problem of how to balance the channel development after taking office. Whether to expand the self operated channel of Guizhou Moutai or rely on the traditional channel agents of Moutai, the traditional dealers in Guizhou Moutai have strong local stickiness, high-quality circle resources and social influence The maintenance of Moutai price and market order has contributed a lot. " Xiao Zhuqing, an independent commentator of China's liquor industry, said that the proportion of sales performance of the direct marketing system in Guizhou Moutai is close to 50%, and further improving the proportion of direct marketing performance may cause Guizhou Moutai's traditional channel partners to slow down and resist or carry high net value private domain flow resources to change their business, which will affect the foundation of Maotai's channels.
For Zhang Deqin's arrival, some dealers think it is a good thing. As a manager from the liquor industry, he thinks more comprehensively about Maotai and sauce liquor, which is conducive to the development of Maotai and liquor industry.
Downward pressure on liquor prices
When Ding Xiongjun left office, Guizhou Moutai began to face the challenge of wine price pressure.
Xiao Zhuqing told China Business News that the recent instability of the transaction price in the Maotai liquor market may be a major factor contributing to the change of the company's leader.
Since 2023, the whole liquor industry has entered a period of deep adjustment, with weak market demand and slow dynamic sales. Recently, the wholesale price of Maotai liquor represented by Feitian in 2024 (loose bottles) has dropped below 2600 yuan, causing market concern.
Since 2023, the whole liquor industry has entered a period of deep adjustment, with weak market demand and slow dynamic sales. Recently, the wholesale price of Maotai liquor represented by the 2024 (bulk bottle) Feitian has dropped below 2600 yuan.
The liquor industry is a cyclical industry, which has gone through several cycles in history. The recovery of the last round of liquor industry will last from 2015 to 2022.
Since the second half of 2022, domestic beverage consumption has been weak. At that time, the industry judged that the liquor industry and liquor market had entered a new round of adjustment period.
On the other hand, since 2015, the price of Feitian Moutai has been rising, which once drove the price of other drinks up. Compared with other liquors, the price of Feitian Moutai Liquor is firm. By 2023, the wholesale price in the channel will remain above 2700 yuan/bottle.
Is the price of Feitian Maotai liquor up to the end now? In the history, Feitian Maotai Liquor has encountered the phenomenon of being unable to sell and the price being inverted. The production capacity of Maotai Liquor was affected by the fluctuation of market price.
At present, not only the price of Feitian Moutai shows signs of pressure. During Ding Xiongjun's tenure, Guizhou Moutai launched a series of high-end liquor Moutai, which was launched in 1935 and 2022. Due to the impact of external factors, the market is not smooth and dealers feel pressure.
Moutai launched Moutai 1935 to compete with other famous liquors at the price of 1000 yuan, Wuliangye General Five Luzhou Laojiao The national cellar 1573 is at the price of 1000 yuan. According to the previous official data, the ex factory price of Moutai 1935 was 798 yuan/bottle. However, after its listing, Moutai 1935 was actually divided into planned and unplanned ones. The latter's price was 1088 yuan/bottle, which also raised the purchase price of Moutai 1935.
In 2023, due to the weak domestic liquor consumption, the market price of Moutai 1935 will gradually fall back. On the e-commerce platform, there are many Moutai 1935 with a price of about 900 yuan.
Some dealers believe that it is not impossible to drive a 1000 yuan single product with the Maotai brand, but in the current situation, this action is a bit too hasty.
Recently, a number of market personages told China Business News that the price of some liquor products in Moutai is unstable, or related to the external environment, and the social purchasing power is insufficient.
but Everbright Securities (Rights protection) In the recently released research report, it is believed that the wholesale price of Maotai liquor is a synchronous indicator reflecting the relationship between supply and demand, rather than a forward-looking indicator. Although the pace of demand recovery cannot be predicted, Moutai has abundant means to adjust the relationship between quantity and price. The company can still reduce the demand for volume increase by optimizing channels and product structure, so as to effectively ease the pressure of supply side on price.
But this round of liquor industry adjustment, whether Moutai can carry the industry adjustment cycle is still in doubt.
Some private investors in Moutai said to the reporter of China Business News that they are more dissatisfied with the performance of Moutai's share price at present. Now the dividend ratio has not been raised, especially the dividend is not certain. In addition, the performance is relatively transparent, which cannot give the market expectations and surprises.
Looking back at the stock price of Guizhou Moutai, the closing price once reached 2601 yuan/share on February 10, 2021, which was the highest in history. Now, as of April 29, 2024, the closing price has shrunk to 1704 yuan/share.
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