Drawn by: Jinbao AI Studio With the passage of time, the disclosure of 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report of A-share listed companies is nearing the end, and the main line of the market is returning to performance. From the specific situation, the performance differentiation of A-share listed companies is very obvious, and the market's response to performance changes is becoming increasingly fierce. Whether the performance growth is "up to standard" has become the criteria for judging whether the funds are concerned. Those whose performance growth exceeds the market expectations are sought after by funds, while those whose performance growth does not meet the market expectations may be abandoned.
Some market analysts pointed out that the end of April is generally the beginning of A-share "performance wave" speculation, and the hot spot of the market will shift to the growing blue chip stocks and high growth stocks, and the polarization will be very obvious. In this context, investors can focus on bargain hunting in industries with good performance, such as food and beverage, household appliances, gold and jewelry industries with sustained and stable demand.
■ Our reporter Lin Ke
Food and beverage
Stable supply and demand relationship in the terminal market
Although the food and beverage industry has a relatively large internal differentiation, from the past performance disclosure, the overall performance of the industry is fair, with many leading enterprises performing well. In the future, as the downstream end consumer market continues to recover, the industry revenue is expected to grow steadily.
From the perspective of segmentation, liquor, especially high-end liquor, is still the focus of the industry. According to the analysis of some institutions, the short-term mood fluctuation of the industry does not change the long-term investment value. At present, the liquor sector has entered the performance intensive disclosure period. It is suggested to pay more attention to the subject matter that the dynamic sales during the Spring Festival exceed the expectations, and the subject matter that the product price increase has made a substantial contribution to profits.
Guosen Securities Analyst Zhang Xiangwei pointed out that as a long-term high-quality asset, the liquor sector has a stable business model, a deep moat, stable cash flow and high dividend payout ratio, and should be given a certain valuation premium. In terms of fundamentals, April is in the off-season of the industry. Most liquor enterprises focus on market construction and consumer cultivation. At the end of April, the liquor sector will enter the performance verification stage. At the same time, the liquor sector, as a high-quality asset for pro cyclical transactions, has passed the low point of fundamentals, and the sector has strong valuation protection under policy support. In terms of investment target, continue to recommend products with strong brand power and anti cyclical product system Guizhou Moutai 、 Shanxi Fenjiu ； Management endowment outstanding Luzhou Laojiao ； Continue to benefit from the upgrading of regional consumption Yanghe Shares 、 Gujing Gong wine 、 Yingjia tribute wine 、 The fate of this world ； Pay attention to reform targets such as Wuliangye Etc.
Zhang Jinyi, an analyst of Ping An Securities, said that from the perspective of the mass consumer goods industry, the leisure food sector benefited from the expansion of downstream snack channels, and the annual report performance was good. It is suggested to focus on the two main lines of demand restoration and competition pattern optimization. The leisure food sector is expected to maintain a high boom. At the same time, prefabricated food can effectively improve the dining efficiency, improve the cost structure, and benefit from the improvement of the chain rate of downstream catering enterprises for a long time. At present, the prosperity of the downstream catering industry is gradually improving. The recovery slope of the big customer terminal is ahead of that of the small customer terminal. Leading enterprises with scale advantages are expected to quickly seize the market share Qianwei Central Kitchen 、 Anjing Food 、 Jinzai Food Etc.
Selected potential stocks
Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) Qinghua: 20% leading Huadan
Since the beginning of 2024, the actual dynamic sales performance of the company has been excellent, the dynamic sales at the dealer level has maintained a rapid growth year on year, and the inventory level is also at a low level in the industry. Among them, Blue and White series has made significant incremental contributions. Blue and White 20 is in a strong sales state in the Shanxi region, and its performance in the price band of 300 yuan - 400 yuan is better than most other competing products. Everbright Securities It is pointed out that the company is led by the blue and white series. It is estimated that the revenue growth of the blue and white series is faster than the average level. The blue and white 20 is expected to maintain a rapid growth momentum and break through the 10 billion level scale with the price increase. The revival version has become the value benchmark of products with fragrance at the price of 1000 yuan. At the same time, the company will also focus on regional resource investment, and it is estimated that the proportion of blue and white series is expected to further increase. In the medium and long term, as a fragrance leader, the company is expected to enjoy the dividend of fragrance expansion. The management is pragmatic and efficient, and the effect of channel model reform is expected to be further revealed, with both development quality and growth potential.
Luzhou Laojiao (000568) highlights its advantages
The company is the representative of Luzhou flavor liquor. In 2024, the payment collection work started early, the payment collection and dynamic marketing continued to advance in peak season, and the channel inventory remained at the level of about two months after the festival. Guotai Jun'an Securities pointed out that from the product side, the company has two major brands: Guojiao and Luzhou Laojiao. The future strategic core of Guojiao 1573, a large single product with a price of 1000 yuan, focuses on bottle opening, and unswervingly promotes consumer construction, circle marketing, marketing separation and other tactical actions; The current sales scale and price position of time-honored brands such as Tequ and Tequ 60 under Luzhou Laojiao brand are good; The forward-looking layout 1952, black cover and other products are expected to continue to work in the future. From the channel side, 2023 is the first year of the company's digitalization. After the launch of the new five code product, the full link digital scanning has further improved the marketing accuracy. The company has a strong valuation advantage under the high growth. In recent years, the company's dividend level has been excellent. Under the reinforcement of shareholder returns, the dividend ratio is expected to gradually increase in the future, and the investment value is prominent.
Qianwei Central Kitchen (001215) has comprehensive competitive advantages
The company has a profound catering gene, starting from serving Yum!, and is deeply bound to Yum! China, Wallace, Haidilao and other large chain catering enterprises with excellent product research and development capabilities and outstanding supply chain management capabilities. The company has successfully explored a set of customized service mode through serving major end customers, built a comprehensive competitive advantage integrating product research and development, quality control, flexible production, etc., and relied on the beacon effect of major end customers to sink the market of small end customers such as group meal, breakfast, rural kitchen, etc. through distribution channels. gf securities It is pointed out that, considering that the catering supply chain space of the terminal key customers is still considerable, the company has the ability to continuously obtain orders from key customers, and the compound growth rate of the company's big B revenue will be about 18% from 2023 to 2025. In addition, the company has a smooth logic in the development of small end customers. It can not only rely on the endorsement of large end customers to develop small and medium-sized customers, but also has a set of differentiated methods in dealer cultivation, and has R&D advantages in high replication categories.
The second growth curve of Anjing Food (603345) appears
The company has misplaced itself in the industry of quick-frozen hot pot ingredients, strengthened its own barriers, and established its leading position in the quick-frozen industry. On this basis, the company has constantly consolidated its competitive advantage and actively arranged prefabricated dishes for the second time. The company has sufficient potential energy reserves for growth and strong predictability for future growth. Guosen Securities pointed out that there are opportunities for both products and channels in China's quick frozen food industry. The company actively follows the market trend and develops the prefabricated vegetable industry at a high speed, which may create a new well. Compared with the United States and Japan, the concentration of quick freezing market is relatively high, while the Chinese market is relatively dispersed, and there are opportunities for industry integration. Although the stock price of the company has experienced a lot of correction, the current track is still expected to maintain a high profile. Under the support of solid fundamentals, the company's high growth attribute has not dissipated, future growth has strong certainty, and mid - and long-term valuation is expected to improve. Under the active business strategy, the company's performance is expected to maintain rapid growth in the next three years.
Household Electric Appliances
The big cycle of renewal is coming
With the continuous implementation of the "old for new" policy of relevant departments, the industry opportunities under the new round of policy catalysis deserve special attention. From the basic point of view, the regular reports issued by several listed household appliance companies show that the leading enterprises of Dajiadian have excellent performance, demonstrated the leading enterprises' business toughness, and showed the high dividend attribute; Individual stocks in the small household appliances sector have been differentiated, the leading performance in the subdivisions has been brilliant, and the domestic and overseas markets have performed well.
He Hongping, an analyst of Deppon Securities, pointed out that the relevant departments attach great importance to the current round of consumer goods trade in policy. Many places have responded positively and clearly proposed to increase the efforts of trade in, which is expected to drive a new round of improvement in the fundamentals of the home appliance industry and also to boost the evaluation level of the home appliance sector. It is still in the early stage of this round of policies, and it is suggested to focus on the sector opportunities driven by policies.
The last round of "household appliances to the countryside" policy has led to a rapid increase in the number of household appliances in China, especially color TV sets, refrigerators, washing machines and other household appliances in rural areas. From the analysis of the last round of "household appliances to the countryside", the current replacement cycle of household appliances has come, and the market space for "old for new" is large. Capital Securities Analyst Chen Meng also said that according to the group standard of Safe Service Life of Household Appliances, the average service life of household appliances is 8 to 10 years. Therefore, the first round of household appliances sold under the guidance of the rural household appliances policy is in the replacement period. It is expected that the new round of "old for new" activities of national household appliances will accelerate the release of demand for the renewal of large household appliances.
On the whole, in 2024, the domestic sales of household appliances will usher in a big cycle of renewal, and the policy is constantly strengthening this logic. At the same time, the overseas sales upgrade is continuously accelerating. Guolian Securities Guan Quansen, an analyst, pointed out that the dividend advantage of the household appliances sector is also very prominent, the valuation is still at a low level in the past decade, and the future business is more certain. "White electricity" suggestions Midea Group 、 Haier Zhijia 、 Hisense Home Appliances 、 Gree Electric Appliance ； "Black electricity" suggestions Hisense Video ； Sweeper attention Stone technology 、 Coworth ； Pay attention to the traditional kitchen electrical faucet in the post cycle Boss Electric 、 Bull Group 、 Vantage ； Attention to optional small household appliances Xiaoxiong Electrical Appliance Etc.
Selected potential stocks
Midea Group (000333) comprehensive high-end household appliance enterprise
The company covers smart home, new energy and industrial technology, intelligent building technology robot With the leading global technology group in automation and other innovative businesses, the total operating revenue in 2023 will be 373.7 billion yuan, up 8.10% year on year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 33.7 billion yuan, up 14.10% year on year. Haitong Securities It is pointed out that Midea products continue to rank first in the domestic online and offline market share among household appliances such as household air conditioners. In the global layout, the company continuously deepens and expands the global business layout through strategic acquisition and joint venture cooperation. Overseas OBM business has grown rapidly. In 2023, OBM business income has reached more than 40% of overseas smart home business income. OBM products have shown strong competitiveness in many overseas markets. On the whole, the company operates steadily, with strong certainty of double digit growth in its performance in 2024, high dividend ratio and dividend yield, and high allocation value.
Haier Zhijia (600690) leading enterprise of refrigeration appliances
The company plans to acquire 100% of the shares of the global commercial refrigeration business of Carrier Group in cash. This transaction can further expand the company's business layout in Europe, play a synergistic effect, and enhance competitiveness. At the same time, it will accelerate the expansion of the company's refrigeration business from home to commercial, relying on new technical support, end-to-end service installation capabilities, and good customer resources, Create new business growth points. Caixin Securities pointed out that the company's retail share of high-end refrigerators in the offline refrigerator market of 10000 yuan and more than 15000 yuan has risen to 39% and 17%, and high-end demand is constantly releasing. With the commissioning of the new factory, the company will further expand its leading edge in the high-end household appliances industry and drive the market to high-end and intelligent iteration. While focusing on its main business, the company actively seeks for new growth space, improves its supply chain layout, accelerates the pace of high-end products and globalization, and constantly improves its competitiveness.
Hisense Video (600060) performance meets market expectations
In the first quarter of 2024, the company's revenue grew in double digits, and its net profit declined, which was in line with the previous market expectations. In the first quarter, the increase in the price of the whole machine promoted the growth of TV business revenue, but the active clearing of inventory led to structural adjustment, so the profit margin fell periodically. With the end of the destocking in North America and the approaching of sports events, the company will start theme marketing activities and increase the shipment strength. In addition, the increase in panel cost in the second quarter will narrow and the price of the whole machine will continue to rise. It is expected that the subsequent shipment growth and profit margin will gradually repair. CSC Securities pointed out that the company adhered to the strategy of high-end products, launched the new Xinghai model and full scene display products, further led the development of large screen and high-end products, and constantly optimized the product structure and profitability; In addition, the European Cup will be opened in June. As an official sponsor, Hisense is expected to achieve channel expansion and high-end breakthrough by virtue of brand marketing and new product launch.
Jiuyang Shares (002242) Leading enterprise of small household appliances
The company is mainly engaged in the R&D, production and sales of small household appliances, mainly including soymilk machine, wall breaking machine, electric rice cooker, air frying pan, cooker, water purifier, electric steamer, boiling water cooker, noodle machine and other products, of which some core competitive products continue to lead the industry. Shangkoningjia (China), a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, is mainly responsible for the brand promotion and marketing of Shark brand in China. At present, its products include floor washing machines, folding vacuum cleaners, sweeping robots, steam sterilization mops, electric mops, etc. In April this year, the company held the 30th anniversary new product launch conference, and launched a series of new space technology 3.0 products, such as the 0 coating non stick electric rice cooker 40N9U Pro, the space heat small clean R5 Pro, and the all-around wall breaking nutrition master Y8, which is expected to start a new round of kitchen revolution. Through the implementation of lean reform strategy based on long-term principle, the company will achieve double growth in revenue and net profit in the first quarter of 2024.
Gold jewelry
High gold price boosts demand explosion
Recently, with the continuous rise of gold price, A-share gold sector has also attracted the attention of market funds. Many gold stocks have benefited from the high gold price and started a wave of rising prices. At the same time, the whole industry of gold jewelry is also favored by the industry.
From the perspective of short-term performance, the market has different expectations for the time when the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates in the year. At the same time, the real yield of US bonds, the linkage between the dollar and gold prices and other circumstances have led to sharp fluctuations in gold prices. Nanjing Securities Analyst Yao Chengzhang pointed out that, in the medium term, referring to the history of the conversion of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase to interest rate reduction from 2018 to 2019, the gold price will perform better in the range from the expected fermentation of interest rate reduction to the actual landing of interest rate reduction. From the long-term perspective, the continuous increase of central bank demand for gold is expected to lift the gold price center. In addition, the current regional situation is unpredictable, and risk aversion is expected to further increase the cost performance of gold allocation. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on the Shandong Gold 、 Yintai Gold 、 CICC Gold 、 Chifeng Gold 、 Hunan Gold and zijin mining Etc.
As the international gold price continues to rise and consumer confidence slowly recovers, jewelry consumption is also growing rapidly driven by the mentality of maintaining value. Huatai Securities Analyst Lin Huanyu said that in the process of reviewing the development of high-end jewelry in Europe, at the stage of switching between economic, cultural and consumer groups, high-end brands can grasp the change of demand, base on their own positioning, continue to occupy the minds of users with products, services and brands, and can go through cycles and continue to grow. At present, most A-share gold jewelry listed companies are positioned in the mass market, and their products have high cost performance ratio. Through flexible channels and price strategies, leading brands can continue to increase their market share. In the future consumption differentiation stage, we are optimistic about the jewelry leader with both tonality and cost performance, and focus on Lao Fengxiang 、 Chaohongji 、 Zhou Dasheng And Chow Tai Fook, etc.
Selected potential stocks
Shandong gold (600547) output may meet rapid growth
The company focuses on the development and utilization of gold mineral resources, is the listed company with the highest output of mineral gold in China, and continues to maintain the leading position in the domestic gold industry. In 2023, the operating revenue will reach 59.275 billion yuan, up 17.83% year on year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.328 billion yuan, up 86.57% year on year. The grade of the company's mineral resources is 1.72g per ton, the resources are 1431.30 tons, and the equity resources are 1282.96 tons; The mineral reserve grade of the company is 1.32g per ton, the resource quantity is 545.97t, and the reserve is 455.18t. Haitong Securities pointed out that the company's controlling shareholder Gold Group also holds 29 gold exploration rights in China, with a total gold resource of 254 tons; It holds 10 gold mining rights in China, with a total gold resource of 95 tons. The company expects that the gold output in 2024 will be no less than 47 tons. In the next three years, with the multiple blossoming of the company's domestic business and the continuous promotion of its foreign business, the company's mineral gold output may usher in a period of rapid growth, consolidating its leading position.
Yintai Gold (000975) has clear development planning objectives
The company issued the outline of development strategic planning, and the production and reserves planning objectives were clear. The two-year planning goal of the company is to produce 12 tons of mineral gold at the end of the 14th Five Year Plan, and the gold resources and reserves will reach 240 tons. The three-year plan aims to reach 15 tons of mineral gold output and 300 tons of gold resources and reserves by the end of 2026; The goal of the five-year plan is to reach 22 tons of mineral gold output and 500 tons of gold resources and reserves by the end of 2028; The goal of the seven-year plan is to reach 28 tons of mineral gold output and more than 600 tons of gold resources and reserves by the end of the "fifteenth five-year plan". Essence Securities pointed out that the company will focus on achieving its goals at home and abroad through extensive growth in the medium and long term, giving full play to the international gene and flexible system advantages. The company will integrate the "scale development" of surrounding mineral resources, give priority to the existing mine surrounding resources, integrate and merge internally and externally, invest in mergers and acquisitions, "expand and develop", focus on the layout of important overseas metallogenic belts, and realize the volume, scale expansion and sustainable development.
Laofengxiang (600612), an old jewelry retailer
The company's main business covers three major industries, one is the gold jewelry industry represented by the "Lao Fengxiang" trademark; Second, the arts and crafts industry represented by the famous brand "Gongmei"; Third, the pen stationery and stationery industry represented by "Zhonghua" and other trademarks. In 2023, the company will achieve a revenue of 71.436 billion yuan, an increase of 13.37%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.214 billion yuan, an increase of 30.23%. Cinda Securities It is pointed out that the purchase, production and sales mode of the company in 2023 will enable it to obtain more profit elasticity of gold price rise; In addition, the scale effect of the company's gold wholesale model continued to strengthen, and the revenue growth was faster than the expense growth. In 2023, the company will vigorously improve the market layout of "Treasure Gold" and "Phoenix Happiness" theme stores, upgrade the theme image of new retail stores, and achieve a net opening of 385 stores, 5994 stores at the end of the period (including 15 overseas silver stores). It is expected that the company will maintain a net opening target of 300 to 400 stores in 2024.
Zhou Dasheng (002867) jewelry head brand
The company has established outstanding brand competitiveness through years of hard work and development. The market share of the "Zhou Dasheng" brand ranks the top three in the domestic jewelry market, and has become one of the most competitive brands in the jewelry market in China. Huachuang Securities pointed out that the company adopted the channel construction strategy of extension and scale first, opened its own stores in the core business districts of the first and second tier cities to create a model store, and radiated and driven the franchise oriented store chain network in the third and fourth tier cities. By the end of 2023, the number of self operated stores has reached 331, accounting for 6.5% of the total stores, and the number of franchised stores has reached 4775, accounting for 93.5% of the total stores. As the leading brand of domestic jewelry, the company has made great efforts in gold jewelry since 2021, innovated product design and process to meet consumer demand, upgraded the franchise service model, and achieved remarkable results. With the continuous expansion of the company's store layout and the increasingly rich gold product matrix, the company is expected to benefit from the high gold boom and usher in rapid growth.
Source: Financial Investment Report http://jrtzb.com.cn/
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