Original title: Three Questions A Share Transaction Continuously "Breaking Trillion"
Reporter Zan Xiuli
As of September 10, the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has exceeded 1 trillion yuan for 38 consecutive trading days, approaching the historical record of 43 consecutive trading days in 2015.
What is the main driving force behind this round of A-share turnover breaking one trillion yuan in a row, and how is it different from the previous situation?
From the perspective of institutions and experts, institutions have significantly adjusted their positions, retail investors have frequent transactions, quantitative transactions are active, and all funds jointly drive the amplification of transactions. In the context of reasonable and abundant overall liquidity, the dividend of deep reform in the capital market continued to release, the market ecology continued to improve, and the capital structure was more balanced. There was no sudden increase in OTC capital allocation and leverage capital in the previous "sky high" transaction market. The trading hub of A-share market will rise.
Multiple funds jointly promote the turnover
"From the perspective of capital sources, the recent increase in the entrustment of bank financing subsidiaries, the continued issuance of some publicly raised fund star products, the increase in the scale of high-frequency quantitative transactions, and some funds invested in real estate entering the stock market may be the reason for the increase in the turnover of the stock market," Chen Li, chief economist of Sichuan Finance Securities and director of the research institute, told China Securities News.
stay CICC According to Li Qiushuo, executive general manager of the Research Department, some of the recent stock market incremental funds may come from individual investors. Private equity funds with a total asset management scale of more than 5 trillion yuan may also have a place in the recent incremental capital. Institutions such as public funds and foreign capital also played a role in improving market activity.
According to the analysis of the above people, in the context of the scarcity of high-quality assets, residents' savings funds and some real estate investment funds directly or indirectly flow into the stock market through personal accounts, public and private fund accounts, and bank financial accounts, helping the A-share market achieve a trillion yuan level of trading.
At the same time, the acceleration of stock capital stock swap is also one of the main reasons for the increase of market turnover.
citic securities A report released pointed out that small and medium-sized private equity institutions and hot money have frequently reduced and increased their positions in the past two weeks.
Haitong Securities Xun Yugen, the chief strategic analyst, believes that behind the recent trillion yuan level market transactions is the position adjustment of public funds and foreign institutions. "From the statistical data analysis, the two major types of institutional funds have gradually completed the position adjustment from 'Mao Index' to 'Ning Portfolio'."
"Behind the huge change of hands are mainly the adjustment of positions of public funds, the amplification of transactions of northbound funds, the increase of margin trading and securities lending, and the active medium and high frequency trading of quantitative private placement." Tianfeng Securities Song Xuetao, chief macro analyst, said.
Qiu Xiang, senior vice president and co chief strategist of CITIC Securities Research Department, believes that the transactions of small and medium-sized companies and popular track sectors are more active, which reflects that the sharp position adjustment of institutions and frequent transactions of retail investors jointly drive the amplification of transactions.
Seen horizontally, the mountain side peaks. From increment to stock, from retail investors to institutions, from public offering to private placement, from margin trading to quantitative trading... In the eyes of insiders, there is no "absence" of all funds in transaction volume.
As for the quantitative investment scale, market participants have different opinions, and the estimated figures are quite different.
According to the research report of Essence Securities, recently, the public funds presented the characteristics of stock game, and the contribution of quantitative funds to the turnover of A-shares may be increased.
Qiu Xiang said that the trading proportion of quantitative strategies in the A-share market has been stable at 10% to 15%, which has not been significantly enlarged recently. The increase in the volatility of the whole market has made some quantitative strategies reduce their leverage and reduce their actual exposure.
"In the near future, the contribution of quantitative trading, Beishang capital and financing transaction has remained stable. The issuance of equity funds has warmed up month by month since June, but the pressure of net redemption of stock continues to exist, the net inflow of allocated foreign capital has resumed, mainstream private equity continues to maintain high positions, and small and medium-sized active private equity positions have returned to a higher level." Qiu Xiang said, The current market capital structure is relatively balanced, which also accelerates the equalization of market style.
Increase in the scale of institutional capital entering the market
Institutional personages generally believe that the capital source of this round of market quotation is more "safe", which is quite different from the situation that a large amount of leveraged funds and OTC funds poured into the stock market in 2015. The dividend of deep reform in the capital market has been released continuously, and the market ecology has continued to improve, attracting a lot of institutional funds, long-term funds and resident funds to enter the market on the "basis".
According to the research report of Essence Securities, in retrospect, the sharp increase in turnover is often accompanied by the acceleration of the inflow of certain types of funds under the background of loose liquidity, which is reflected in the substantial increase in the proportion of such capital turnover, such as leverage funds in 2015 and public funds at the end of 2020.
Chen Li said that the biggest difference between this round of high turnover and 2015 is that the trillion yuan level turnover in many consecutive trading days in 2015 was caused by high leverage funds, while the leverage utilization rate of this round of high turnover is small, the proportion of institutional funds entering the market is relatively high, and there is little risk of significant fluctuations.
Industry insiders said that in 2015, a large number of illegal OTC funding swarmed in, ranging from 5 times leverage to more than 10 times leverage. With the continuous promotion of the deep reform of the capital market and the strict governance of OTC capital allocation, the security of A-share market funds is far higher than in 2015.
"The high turnover in 2015 was mainly affected by leverage funds and capital allocation. Now, among the incremental funds of this round of high turnover, public funds, retail investment and quantitative investment account for three parts of the world." Li Shengdong, chairman of the micro investment fund, said that similar to the situation that the turnover has exceeded one trillion yuan for several consecutive times, this time from the analysis of the rise and fall of the index, the small and medium-sized market capitalization style is relatively dominant. (Transfer down to A02 version)
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