Hong Kong property market "big earthquake" developers escape the default of buyers, and the house price will fall by up to 25%
As the bubble in the real estate market has accumulated and housing prices in many benchmark cities have turned downward, Hong Kong, famous for its high housing prices, has ushered in a "big earthquake".
"If you really want to, you can also talk about the price with the owner." Wang Jun (a pseudonym), the agent of Centaline Real Estate in Hong Kong, introduced to the reporter of the Huaxia Times that the owner bought the luxury house in Kowloon District of Hong Kong at a total price of about 16.5 million Hong Kong dollars when it opened at the end of last year. Now this luxury house has been hung on the website of Centaline Real Estate for 13.98 million Hong Kong dollars and is ready to be sold. In less than a year, it has fallen by more than 15%.
On November 13, Jones Lang LaSalle's latest housing market outlook pointed out that Hong Kong's housing market is entering a period of adjustment, and the average housing price will fall by 15% by the end of 2019; If the Sino US trade friction continues to worsen or the stock market continues to decline, the average housing price may fall by as much as 25%.
According to the data released on the official website of Midland Realty, the average price of second-hand housing in Hong Kong in October was 13269 Hong Kong dollars/foot (about 138000 Hong Kong dollars/square meter), down 2.2% month on month; Among them, Hong Kong Island District fell 2.1% month on month, Kowloon District fell 2.3% month on month, and New Territories District fell 2.3% month on month. At the same time, the sales volume of new residential buildings in Hong Kong fell to HK $11.2 billion in October, the lowest level in 16 months after excluding holiday factors; The number of new housing transactions in October was only 1130, about half of that in September.
What's more, the news that the reporter interviewed was more valuable than the decline of housing prices was that in the representative Hong Kong property market, "quasi land king" appeared in unsold auction, luxury houses were sold at discounts, investors sold, and even developers were fleeing to other markets.
Reduce house price in October
Hong Kong houses are too expensive, which is the most intuitive feeling in Hong Kong for many years.
The reporter of the Huaxia Times recently learned that, in addition to the fact that the price of second-hand houses in Haotian, Kowloon District, Hong Kong, has dropped more than that of first-hand houses, there is also a large bargaining space for second-hand houses in Yihai, East District, Hong Kong Island.
A second-hand two bedroom apartment located in the east of Hong Kong Island District. The total price shown on the official website of Centaline Real Estate is HK $9.5 million, with an area of 475 feet (about 45.5 square meters) and a building age of 6 years. When the reporter asked Huang Ling (a pseudonym), the agent of Centaline Real Estate in charge of the house, about the house, she said that the house had been sold for HK $8.38 million. At the same time, Huang Ling introduced that there is a two bedroom apartment with an area of 536 feet (about 51.5 square meters) in the Yixing Pavilion not far away. Now it sells for 9 million Hong Kong dollars, but you can talk about more than 8 million Hong Kong dollars with the owner. The exact amount depends on the owner. If you can pay by check, the owner can see your sincerity and talk more deeply.
As for the recent decline in Hong Kong housing prices, Huang Ling said that the previous bid was too high, and the recent decline in Hong Kong housing prices.
According to the report of Sing Tao Daily on November 13, Hong Kong, according to the comprehensive market news, the weekend booking volume of large housing estates fell by about 4% overall, and fell for five consecutive weeks. With the prospective buyers' attitude towards the market turning to wait-and-see, many large housing estates, including Quarry Bay Taikoo City, Tianshui Wai Jiahu Villa, Shatian First City, etc., failed to clinch deals in the first three days of this month. Industry insiders expected that, It is expected that second-hand transactions will hover at a low level, increasing the space for discussion.
In addition, according to the survey results of the Hong Kong Research Association in mid October, at present, 60% of the respondents are pessimistic about Hong Kong's economy in the next six months, and 40% of the respondents expect that housing prices will fall.
The number of house purchase default cases increased significantly
The fact that housing prices in Hong Kong have been falling in recent months is undoubtedly a heavy blow to the owners who have bought houses before.
Data from Hong Kong real estate information website Dataelements shows that as of October 26, Hong Kong has seen 36 cases of house purchase default this year, compared with 9 cases in the whole year last year. According to Hong Kong law, these buyers will lose the deposit already paid, which is 5% of the house value.
According to the above data, the total default of these 36 housing purchases is about HK $2 million. The price range of new houses involved in house purchase default is very wide, ranging from HK $4.9 million to HK $39.8 million. The cumulative total value of 36 houses is HK $247 million. However, about 66% of house purchase defaults involve a house price of less than HK $8 million.
According to the research paper released by CLSA, Hong Kong's real estate market is experiencing the worst macro environment in 15 years. Rising interest rates, economic slowdown and RMB devaluation are hitting Hong Kong's property market. It is expected that the housing price will be 15% lower in the next year. In addition, UBS previously published a research report that predicted that Hong Kong property prices would fall by 5% - 10% from now to the end of next year, which has not fully accounted for the impact of trade frictions on Hong Kong's economy.
Real estate tycoon flees
As one of the "Four Little Dragons in Asia", Hong Kong's unique international economic and trade port makes it a truly chosen son. The Hong Kong dollar exchange rate directly benchmarks against the US dollar, which also makes Hong Kong dollar assets more marked with "US dollar assets". Hong Kong's property market naturally becomes a hot topic for speculators in the mainland and even the world.
However, since August this year, the Hong Kong banking industry has started to raise interest rates, and the Hong Kong property market has shown signs of cooling. The Hong Kong property market continues to be depressed. In the event that it is unlikely to make money in the future, the Hong Kong real estate giant Nanfeng Group immediately voted with its feet and turned to the new market.
It is reported that Nanfeng Group completed the acquisition of most shares of London developer Endurance Land at the beginning of October, and will enter the British real estate market in this way.
It is worth mentioning that Nanfeng's big move is only 10 days away from the purchase of MillHarbour Quarter, a super high-rise residential development project at Canary Wharf in London, by Sun Hung Kai, the largest developer in Hong Kong, on September 27.
It is understood that Nanfeng Group, which started from textile industry, is an old Hong Kong real estate giant. Founded in 1954, it has developed more than 130 real estate projects and is one of the first Hong Kong funded real estate enterprises to enter the mainland. In May 2017, Nanfeng won the most expensive commercial plot in Hong Kong - Kowloon Kai Tak Plot with 24.6 billion Hong Kong dollars, becoming the new land king of Hong Kong.
Influenced by the cooling of the property market, according to EGI data, Hong Kong investors have sold properties worth 17.5 billion pounds in Hong Kong in the past 12 months (most of them were mainland buyers), of which Nanfeng sold 900 million pounds of Hong Kong properties, ranking top five. At the top of the list is the Changshi property owned by Li Ka shing, which sold about 4 billion pounds of Hong Kong property.
Sale of luxury houses, popular auction of "quasi land king"
The luxury housing market in Hong Kong has also shown signs of loss recently.
On October 16, the Hong Kong Lands Department announced that the bid for the luxury residential land at 12 Wenhui Road on the top of Hong Kong Peak failed to meet the requirements, and announced the bid flow. It is reported that the above land covers an area of about 189400 square meters (about 21000 square meters), which is the first sale in more than 8 years. It is a rare large super luxury residential project. The market valuation is about 24.259 billion to 48.518 billion Hong Kong dollars.
It is understood that there are 5 enterprises bidding for this project, including Sun Hung Kai Real Estate, Henderson Real Estate, Changshi Group and Jiahua International, and Jiulong Cang is united New World Development, Xinhe Real Estate, Nanfeng Group, Chinachem Group and China Overseas Development formed a consortium for bidding. However, none of their offers reached the minimum price set by the government for the land, and the government did not accept the five bids received.
This is a small number of large official land in the expensive area of Hong Kong Peak. Although the lot is of high quality and the land quality is good, the market has a big difference in land valuation due to the recent cooling of the property market.
At the same time, on the website of Zhongyuan Real Estate - Online Building Search, the reporter of Huaxia Times found that the phenomenon of loss sale of luxury house sellers also began to appear. A two bedroom apartment located in Block 9, Haotian, Kowloon District, Hong Kong, with an area of 581 feet (about 54 square meters), the total price is 13.98 million Hong Kong dollars, and the unit price is about 258000 Hong Kong dollars/square meter.
According to Wang Jun, Haotian belongs to a luxury residential area and is located in the central area of a school district with famous schools. The house is one year old and was completed in December 2017. When it was opened, the price was higher. The total price of houses of the same type was about HK $16 million - 17 million, nearly HK $300000 per square meter.
The next day, when the reporter logged on the website of Centaline Real Estate - Online Property Search again, he found that the total price of the house had changed from 13.98 million Hong Kong dollars to 13.5 million Hong Kong dollars, and the total price had dropped by 480000 Hong Kong dollars in just one day. In less than a year, the price of second-hand houses in this area has dropped by nearly HK $3 million, or nearly 20%, compared with the price of first-hand houses. Wang Jun told reporters that he could talk about the price with the owner again.
In response to the recent downturn in the Hong Kong property market, Huang Tao, general manager of the Guangzhou Zhongyuan Real Estate Project Department, told the Huaxia Times that the Hong Kong property market has indeed seen a sharp decline in turnover recently, and the transaction price has also eased. There are two main reasons: First, Hong Kong's economy has begun to weaken, and the impact of income, expectations and the Sino US trade war on the property market has gradually emerged; Second, Hong Kong's housing prices have been rising for so many years, and now they are at a high level. It is time for a correction, so there is a decline.
Huang Tao believes that Hong Kong's property market is in a period of adjustment, which is almost synchronous with the situation of the mainland's property market, which is also normal. However, Hong Kong's property market is more market-oriented, and the intensity and amplitude of this fluctuation are much greater than those of the mainland.
Editor in charge: Zhang Guoshuai
