Special topic: "Precious metal craze" continues: gold continues to hit a new historical high, silver rises above $32
Last week, COMEX yellow Gold price Georgia rose 2.23% to 2419.80 US dollars/ounce, and Shanghai Gold Depository Bank rose 0.62% to 564.86 yuan/gram.
Inflation. Last week, the inflation data landed. Among them, the CPI monthly rate declined for the first time in seven months, and now it has fallen back to the low level since December 2023. Specifically, after the quarterly adjustment in April, the monthly rate of core CPI declined more than expected, by 0.1%, recording 0.3%. The annual rate of core CPI not seasonally adjusted in April, the annual rate of core CPI not seasonally adjusted and the monthly rate of core CPI after seasonally adjusted all went down ahead of the market expectations, recording 3.6%, 3.4% and 0.3% respectively. The fall of inflation data has improved the interest rate cutting sentiment, and the market bet on the probability of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September has increased.
Economic operation. Whether it is the monthly retail sales rate of the United States in April, or the manufacturing index of the Federal Reserve of New York in May, or the monthly industrial output rate in April, or the manufacturing index of the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia in May, various economic data have weakened by varying degrees. The inhibitory effect of high interest rates on the economy may be stronger, and the market's doubts about the sustainability of the high interest rate operation may be rising.
On the whole, the fall in CPI data has raised the market's expectation of an inflation correction. The continued weakening of economic data has made the market's expectation of high interest rates difficult to sustain. In addition, the recent weakening of the dollar index has caused short-term or strong fluctuations in gold prices. However, it should be noted that, on the one hand, the fall of single inflation data has limited effect on the promotion of the disk, and the space above the gold price should not be overly optimistic in the short term; On the other hand, recently, the officials of the Federal Reserve have been hawkish. For example, Governor Bowman once said that inflation will remain high for a period of time. If inflation stagnates or rebounds, he is willing to support the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate hikes. Obviously, the current interest rate reduction bet or in the economic data and Federal Reserve officials' statements back and forth, we need to be alert to the impact of officials' statements on the disk.
Source: Wind, Jinshi Data, Everbright Futures Research Institute
Writer: Wu Aihua
Qualification: F3074355
Investment consulting qualification: Z0017696
Disclaimer: The opinions, suggestions and conclusions in this paper are for reference only. The data in the report are from public information. The relevant analysis and suggestions do not constitute the basis for the investment operation of the said varieties. Any investment decisions made by investors based on this have nothing to do with the company and the author.
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