Zhang Yaoxi: US Economic Data Pours More Cold Water on Interest Rate Reduction; Gold Callback Still Needs to Be Higher

May 24: On Thursday of last trading day (May 23): International gold/London gold fell sharply again and closed lower. The short position strength continued to increase, which is expected to fall further in the short term and hit the expectation that the 60 day moving average will support the target. Therefore, the high-altitude strategy remains unchanged for the time being.

　　 In terms of specific trend, Gold price From Asia Open at $2378.73/oz , recorded in the first short strengthening Intraday high: $2383.50 After that, it ran under pressure and fell all the way. Although it continued to rise in the European market, it was still under intra day pressure. After the US market opened in the evening, the trend fell again and continued to fall. All the way down, it fell below the mid track support of the daily chart and was recorded at the end of the day Intraday low: $2326.98 , and finally stopped falling, It closed at US $2328.32, The daily amplitude was $56.52, down $50.41, or 2.12%.

　　 In terms of impact, The US dollar index maintained its momentum of recovery and continued to close positive. The 10-year yield of US Treasuries rebounded strongly and closed higher, putting negative pressure on its gold price. The hawkish view of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting in May is still supporting the US dollar and depressing the gold price; Although in the European market, the market recovered due to the technical support of buying, after the opening of the US market, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week, the initial value of the global manufacturing PMI of S&P and the initial value of the global service PMI of the United States in May, collectively negative gold prices, reduced the urgency of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, making it fall again and continue to decline, while the total number of new housing sales in the United States in April was annualized (10000 households) The bullish reason for the gold price is that the interest rate is rising, which is also good for the US dollar. As a result, the gold price continues to fall and hit the intraday low, and finally closed down.

　　   Looking forward to today Friday (May 24): The international gold market opened first again to stop the decline and recover, but the strength is expected to be limited, facing the suppression of the moving average at the top of the main chart at the same time; In terms of the US dollar index, the bullish market has strengthened after the continuous rebound in the daily chart. Although it is also facing medium track resistance, the short-term moving average below the main chart supports it. The short signal of the indicators in the attached figure continues to shrink. Even if it does not break through the resistance and further rebound, it will maintain volatility, which is difficult to generate a continuous decline, but will limit bullion prices, And generate negative pressure on it. Therefore, the gold price has to see the short fall within the day, and the operation has to be carried out at a high altitude.

　　 In addition, the same is true for the 10-year yield of US bonds. In addition, the daily chart trend has broken through the middle track resistance. In addition, the short-term moving average has turned to support. The short position signal of the attached indicators has been reduced, and the bullish trend has turned to bullish development, suggesting that the future trend is more likely to rebound further, which will cause negative pressure on gold prices.

　　 On the day, we will focus on the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in May and the one-year inflation rate expectation in May. The former is biased towards negative gold prices, while the latter is biased towards positive gold prices. At the same time, we will also pay attention to the speech delivered by Federal Reserve Governor Waller. If you prefer hawks, you will end up in shock today, otherwise, you will end up in shock. However, we still do not change the current callback expectation. If there is a rebound, it depends on the callback. In addition, according to yesterday's Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostik, it may take longer for the United States to reduce inflation than in Europe, and individuals are more likely to be short and bearish.

　　 Fundamentally, yesterday The market's expectation of other central banks to cut interest rates has also cooled. Traders ruled out a rate cut by the Bank of England in June. also Lower the interest rate cut bet on the European Central Bank. The dollar was once depressed, but due to the support of the recent rebound in buying and the released economic data It shows that business activities are accelerating at the fastest speed in two years, and the initial PMI of manufacturing and service industries are higher than expected , which also boosted the strength of the US dollar, causing negative effects on gold prices 。

　　 In addition, the minutes of the Federal Reserve released hawkish views, and there are still comments from Federal Reserve officials that they will continue to maintain a high interest rate environment. The Federal Reserve's mouthpiece said that Fed officials need to keep interest rates at current levels longer than previously expected. Make its short power increase. The gold price is still faced with callback demand in the short term; Therefore, if you want to start the bull market again and pull up the market, it is expected that the bulls will further strengthen in the fourth quarter, creating a rise of hundreds of dollars again.

　　 Technically: monthly chart level ， Although the gold price rose strongly again this month, breaking the historical high created in April, the bulls have weakened significantly and stepped out of the sharp retreat market. If this momentum is maintained and the long shadow line is collected again, the expectation of reaching the top will be strengthened, and the future market will have a larger callback market, which is expected to fall to 2075 or below. On the other hand, if it returns to above $2400, it will continue to be bullish and strong, waiting for the historical peak to be refreshed.

　　 Perimeter level: Gold price Although it rebounded and closed positive again last week, this week it fell back and fell sharply, recovering the gains of the previous week. Now it has fallen below the 5-week moving average, KDJ has turned a dead fork downward, and the future trend is biased towards the expected development of shock and fall. The lower part focuses on the support of the 10 week moving average. If it falls below, it will increase its bearishness, coveting to reach around 2200 dollars, otherwise, it will maintain the high range of shock and wait to strengthen again.

　　 If you don't grasp the detailed space enough or can't continue to pay attention to it, you can add me to make a round the clock check for you.

　　 Daily line level: Gold price Yesterday, the market fell sharply again and closed down. While operating below the short-term moving average, it also fell further below the middle track. The bear power increased. The attached indicators MACD and KDJ remained bearish, and the ZZ indicator did not show a bottom signal. Therefore, there is still a need for the market to fall back in the future. It will continue to aspire to reach the 60 day moving average support, a target around $2287, The upper part focuses on the middle track and short-term moving average resistance.

　　 The specific real-time order making notice focuses on the physical warehouse guidance information.

　　 Reference of preliminary points within the day:

　　 International Gold ： Top attention two three hundred and forty-five Resistance near the dollar, and two three hundred and sixty-one Resistance near the dollar; lower Fang Concerned two thousand three hundred and ten Support near the dollar, and two thousand two hundred and ninety Support near the US dollar;

　　 international silver ： Top attention thirty point three five USD resistance, and 30.65 US dollars Elementary resistance; Follow below twenty-nine point seven five USD support, and 29.00 US dollars Meta support;

Safe, fast and guaranteed futures account opening on Sina cooperation platform

Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP

Editor in charge: Chen Ping