In October, as the weather turns cold, the Beijing property market turns cold suddenly.
On the one hand, the supply of new houses continues to blowout, on the other hand, the market wait-and-see mood is becoming increasingly strong, coupled with the impact of the National Day Golden Week and the new housing provident fund policy, making the overall transaction volume of the property market drop significantly. Industry insiders believe that the Beijing property market still faces imminent sales pressure at the end of the year, and continues to increase with the listing of more restricted houses. The restricted houses with poor location attributes that are more difficult to eliminate may start a price war.
Supply exceeds demand, and the real estate market turns cold
Since October, the supply of new houses in Beijing has continued to explode.
According to the statistics released by the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban Rural Development on pre-sale commercial housing residential projects, the Securities Times reporter found that from October 1 to 28, 22 projects had obtained pre-sale certificates in 28 days. In addition to a large number of limited competition housing projects and several co ownership housing projects, there were several luxury housing projects with pre-sale unit prices of more than 90000 yuan/square meter, and the maximum unit price reached 119000 yuan/square meter. In addition, according to the statistics of Real Data, the total housing supply of the limited competition housing projects approved for listing in October reached more than 5000 sets, an increase of 33% month on month.
Since the listing of restricted auction houses in June, the supply of new housing market in Beijing has grown rapidly, and the market feature of oversupply is prominent. According to the statistics of Heshuo, 32510 commercial residences were supplied in Beijing's new housing market in the first 10 months of this year, but the turnover was less than 20000, only 19118. The market supply and demand ratio reached an astonishing 1.7:1. The difficulty of deconstruction has increased, and the inventory crisis looms.
Among them, the transaction of the limited auction house was far less than expected. According to the data of Centaline Real Estate Research Center, as of the end of the day, there were 15982 houses listed in 26 restricted housing projects in Beijing, while only 2581 houses were signed online, accounting for only 16% of the total. Although the online tag data lags behind, the actual sales statistics are only 30%.
Due to the impact of a large number of restricted housing listings in the new housing market, the sales of second-hand housing in Beijing also fell to the edge of 10000 units in October, with a month on month decline of 40%, hitting a new low in sales in nearly eight months since February this year.
Not only did the trading volume fall, but also the transaction price of second-hand houses fell. Real Data data shows that the real-time transaction volume of Beijing second-hand housing market in October decreased by 12.5% month on month, and the absolute level of transactions fell to the level in November 2017; The average price continued to fall to 61103 yuan/level, down 1.2% month on month. Buyers are in a strong wait-and-see mood, the pace of market transactions slows down, and the enthusiasm for entering the market decreases. Owners' expectations continue to loosen, the proportion of price increases in the price adjusted housing supply falls back to the low level after the "317 regulation", and the bargaining space continues to expand.
In a word, Beijing property market transactions turned cold as a whole. According to the statistics of Heshuo, 12911 new and second-hand houses were sold in Beijing in October. Compared with September, the number of sold houses decreased by 35.2% and the area of sold houses decreased by 32.3%.
Look around, 50 buildings have "Double 11" discounts
In October, the Beijing property market, especially the second-hand housing market, saw a sharp drop of more than 40% in transactions. On the one hand, it was related to the reduction of one week of online signing data during the National Day holiday, and on the other hand, it was also related to the tightening of provident fund policy in September. In the low temperature market, the enthusiasm of both buyers and sellers of second-hand houses to enter the market has dropped.
"After the adjustment of the provident fund policy in September, the purchasing power of the market, especially the purchasing power of the first purchase, was further weakened. At the same time, the market expectation was further affected by this, and the enthusiasm of customers to enter the market was reduced." Xu Xiaole, the chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, pointed out that due to the wait-and-see mood and sluggish demand, the difficulty of market transactions in October continued to increase, and the transaction cycle was further extended. The average price of new listing also showed a downward trend. In the transaction link, the owners continued to make concessions and the bargaining space was further expanded.
Xu Xiaole believes that the current market expectations are loose, the buyers and sellers are not very enthusiastic about entering the market, and the restricted housing projects are concentrated in the market, which will divert some second-hand housing market demand. It is expected that the transaction volume and price of second-hand housing in November will continue to remain low, and the average price will fluctuate near the current level.
Zhang Dawei, the first analyst of Centaline Real Estate, predicted that with the continuous increase of the follow-up supply, the restricted houses with poor location attributes that are becoming more difficult to deconstruct may start a price war.
"At the end of the year, Beijing's property market is still facing imminent sales pressure, and continues to increase with the listing of more houses with limited competition." Guo Yi, chief analyst of Hezuo, told the Securities Times.
It is understood that with the arrival of the traditional "Double 11" e-commerce shopping carnival, the real estate industry in Beijing has also set off a real estate promotion upsurge - "Hezhuo Double 11 CD Festival". Several large brand real estate enterprises, including Vanke, Poly, Jindi, China Railway, COFCO, Sino Ocean, and China Merchants, have participated in the Beijing real estate market, and the number of preferential properties has reached 50, More than 150 preferential houses were launched, with a total amount of 50 million yuan. The activity was launched by Beijing Heshuo, a real estate marketing agency. Up to now, the activity has attracted hundreds of interested customers, and some of the 150 preferential houses have been subscribed.
However, Guo Yi also stressed that the preferential housing supply for the above activities is only available to buyers in limited time and quantity during the "Double 11 CD Festival", which is also the first cross real estate enterprise, cross regional and cross product promotional activity in Beijing's real estate industry, but it does not mean that the developer will reduce prices in a large area. "In fact, there are quite a lot of 50 projects. In fact, there are 150 special houses in total. On average, there are only 3 houses in one project, and the number of houses in a single project is relatively small," she said.
Guo Yi said that the price discount was not transparent before, and the "Double 11 CD Festival" put forward the idea of "real house supply and real discount". Instead of making gimmicks, it really brought home price reduction and exemption to buyers, and really gave benefits to end consumers.
Editor in charge: Chen Xin
