Recently, the global market ushered in a wave of "all metal craze".
On Friday, gold and silver surged again, the silver price climbed to an 11 year high, and the gold price also rebounded to an all-time high in April. The price of copper in New York and Shanghai Stock Exchanges hit new highs one after another after the epic price of copper in New York.
At the weekend, many gold stores quickly raised the retail price of gold. At present, the price of gold jewelry of various domestic brands has reached around 740 yuan/gram, and many gold stores have set new records.
Upsurge
By the end of Friday, COMEX gold had risen 1.44% to 2419.8 dollars/ounce, while London gold was up 1.61% to 2414500 dollars/ounce. COMEX silver rose 6.36% to US $31.775/ounce, while London silver now rose 6.60% to US $31.490/ounce, with silver prices hitting a new high since 2013.
In the end market, the price of gold jewelry will also be adjusted accordingly.
Overnight, the retail price of domestic brand gold jumped by a maximum of 12 yuan per gram, and the listing price of several gold stores broke the record again. If Zhou Shengsheng's listing price has risen to 740 yuan/gram, Chow Tai Fook mclon 、 Chaohongji They also offered a new high price of 739 yuan/gram.
The sharp rise of gold and silver last week was mainly due to the weak economic data in the United States, which boosted the expectation of interest rate reduction, and the expectation of the European Central Bank to cut interest rates in advance.
Data released by the United States on Wednesday showed that the overall CPI recorded 3.4% in April; The core CPI rose 0.3% month on month, the first cooling in six months, and the year-on-year growth dropped to the lowest level in three years.
This is a relief to Federal Reserve officials who are seeking to cut interest rates this year. Therefore, traders also strengthened their bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September and December. The interest rate futures market priced that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 52 basis points this year. According to the observation tool of the Federal Reserve of Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the probability of starting interest rate reduction in September is about 70%.
As for the future trend of gold, many institutions and analysts said that there is still room for gold price to rise in the future, or it will sprint to 2500 dollars/ounce.
Analysts believe that inflation concerns catalyzed by future geo events and the expectation of interest rate cuts in the United States may interlace to drive gold prices up; In addition, in the process of global multipolarization, the central bank will continue to purchase large amounts of gold, which may play a supporting role in gold prices.
In addition, Kitco's online poll shows that 58% of retail investors expect gold prices to rise next week.
Analysts are more optimistic about silver market
So far this year, spot gold and silver prices in London have risen by 17.06% and 32.43% respectively.
Although the price of precious metals has increased significantly since this year, the insiders are still optimistic about its future performance. Moreover, in contrast, analysts are more optimistic about the future market of silver.
In this round of recovery of precious metal market, as central banks around the country continued to buy, gold prices continued to hit record highs, and the gold silver ratio continued to open the gap. Although silver has performed well, its price has not yet exceeded the historical high. Recently, the increase of silver was significantly higher than that of gold, and the ratio of gold to silver began to shrink.
Some analysts pointed out that supported by potential factors such as the widening gap between silver supply and demand, silver may be in the front end of the strongest upward cycle in history.
In addition, Phil Streible, chief market strategist of the futures company Blue Line Futures, analyzed that the strong rise of copper is spilling over to silver, because silver is also regarded as an industrial commodity and widely used in solar energy Battery and other fields.
From the perspective of supply and demand, silver has always been in short supply: from 2020 to 2023, silver supply will only increase by 0.3%, while demand will increase by 5.2%, and accumulated inventory will decrease by 540 million ounces in just three years. In 2023, the global silver supply of minerals will decline by 6.3 million ounces to 830 million ounces, down 0.7% year on year.
Will copper continue to soar?
In recent months, the long short confrontation in the copper market mainly focused on the supply gap and the expectation of demand growth. This week, the market forces have undergone a dramatic change, and the forced market in New York City that took the lead shocked the financial circle.
This week, copper prices in New York and Shanghai reached new highs. On Friday, the copper price on the London Metal Exchange also recorded a 2.8% increase, approaching the historical peak in March 2022.
It is worth noting that, as of May 17, the spot processing cost index of SMM imported copper concentrate reported - 1.08 dollars/ton, and the index has turned negative for two consecutive weeks.
Huatai Securities It is believed that the fundamentals of supply slowdown and demand improvement in the copper industry in the second quarter may continue, and copper prices may easily rise but not fall in the short term; In addition, the optimistic market sentiment is basically in line with the good and low inventory, and COMEX copper prices may be forced into positions.
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