Natural rubber: the plate fluctuates violently, and where the rubber will go

Source: Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute

Core point: RU neutral NR neutral bias

Disk: RU and NR rose; RU-NR price difference weakens; The monthly difference of RU9-1 continues the C structure and weakens (- 25); The NR three month difference of one to two, two to three continues the C structure.

Fundamentals: RU: RU basis fell for two consecutive weeks, with poor spot demand (empty) However, the spot inventory of all latex decreased slightly on a month on month basis+the collection and storage of wheel stock is unknown+domestic imports declined year-on-year (many) , judging that RU prices continue to fluctuate widely this week. NR: month on month increase of futures inventory+seasonal accumulation of tires (empty) However, the standard rubber spot continued to be unseasonally destocked+the price of Thailand's raw materials rose+Thailand's exports fell sharply year-on-year (many) It is judged that the NR price fluctuated and rose this week.

RU05-RU09 monthly difference: Neutral bias The month difference of RU9-1 continued the C structure, with a month on month drop of 25 yuan/ton. When the monthly difference of RU9-1 is close to the expiration and cancellation of the warehouse receipt in November, the historical average value is between - 3000 and - 1000 yuan/ton, so there is a certain opportunity for reverse arbitrage.

RU-NR price difference: Neutral bias In terms of inventory, it is a pattern of deep strength and shallow weakness. RU-NR fell by 115 yuan/ton month on month last week, and there is limited room for RU-NR to weaken.

Supplied by Thailand ： Neutral bias Raw materials continued to rise, and exports fell sharply.

Domestic supply: neutral Hainan raw material prices rose sharply from January to April rubber The cumulative import volume decreased by 23% year on year.

Tyres: neutral In May, tires are accumulated seasonally. Semi steel operating rate was high, and all steel inventory was high year on year.

Social inventory: RU neutral bias NR neutral bias As of May 24, China's all latex spot inventory was 257000 tons, a month on month decrease of 0.5%. As of May 24, the spot stock of Qingdao Standard Rubber in China was 71000 tons, down 1.4% month on month.

Futures inventory: RU neutral NR neutral bias As of May 30, the inventory of Tianjiao Futures of the previous stock exchange was 217000 tons, a decrease of 0.7% month on month. As of May 30, Shanghai International Energy Center 20 # glue Futures inventory was 139000 tons, down 5.6% month on month.

RU basis: neutral Bias As of May 30, the SCRWF-RU basis was - 820 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan/ton month on month.

NR basis: neutral As of May 30, the STR20-NR basis difference was - 233 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton month on month.

Thailand: raw materials continue to rise and exports decline sharply

Thailand's raw material prices continue to rise

• As of May 30, the price of glue in Thailand was 80.7 baht/kg, 1.5 baht/kg higher than that on May 24.

• As of May 30, the price of Thai cup glue was 62.0 Baht/kg, up 2.55 Baht/kg from May 24.

Data source: Reuters, Longzhong, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute

Thailand's cumulative export volume from January to April decreased significantly year on year

• From January to April 2024, Thailand's total rubber exports (including natural rubber and mixed rubber) were 1.062 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 24.8%, which was at a historical high level.

• From January to April 2024, Thailand's natural rubber exports totaled 679000 tons, an increase of 0.3% year on year.

• From January to April 2024, the total export volume of Thailand's mixed rubber was 392000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 47.0%.

Data source: Thailand Customs, QinRex, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute

Domestic: rubber imports declined from January to April

Hainan raw material prices rose significantly

• As of May 30, the price of glue in Yunnan was 14000 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton higher than that on May 24.

• As of May 30, the price of glue in Hainan was 17300 yuan/ton, down 1300 yuan/ton from May 24.

Data source: General Administration of Customs, QinRex, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute

From January to April, the cumulative import of rubber decreased by 23% year on year

• From January to April 2024, China's total rubber imports (including natural rubber and mixed rubber) were 1.761 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.7%, which was at a historical low level.

• From January to April 2024, China's total imports of natural rubber were 697000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 23.6%, which was at a historical low level.

• From January to April 2024, the total import volume of China's hybrid rubber was 1.063 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1%, which was at the historical average level.

Data source: General Administration of Customs, QinRex, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute

In May, tire seasonal inventory

Semi steel operating rate is high, and all steel inventory is high year on year

• As of May 31, the weekly capacity utilization rate of China's semi steel tires was 80.09%, unchanged month on month. The available days of inventory were 32.19 days, up 2.68% month on month.

• As of May 31, the weekly capacity utilization rate of China's all steel tires was 65.20%, down 1.51% month on month. The available days of China's all steel tire inventory were 44.28 days, down 1.45% month on month.

Data source: Longzhong, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute

In May, the inventory of full and semi steel tire enterprises increased month on month

Data source: Longzhong, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute

Deep and light colors continue to be removed

• As of May 24, China's all latex spot inventory was 257000 tons, a month on month decrease of 0.5%.

• As of May 24, the spot stock of light colored glue was 530000 tons, a decrease of 1.0% month on month.

• As of May 24, the spot inventory of dark glue was 781000 tons, a decrease of 1.6% month on month.

• As of May 24, the spot stock of Qingdao Standard Rubber in China was 71000 tons, a 1.4% month on month decrease; The inventory of mixed glue was 468000 tons, with a month on month decrease of 1.7%.

Data source: Longzhong, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute

The inventory of RU and NR decreased month on month

• As of May 30, the inventory of Tianjiao Futures of the previous stock exchange was 217000 tons, a decrease of 0.7% month on month.

• As of May 30, the inventory of Shanghai International Energy Center No. 20 rubber futures was 139000 tons, a decrease of 5.6% month on month.

Data source: Longzhong, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute

Dark colors increase more than light colors

Light colored glue rose sharply

• As of May 30, the price of concentrated latex was 11400 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton month on week.

• As of May 30, the price of domestic all latex was 14850 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton month on week.

• As of May 30, the price of 3L in Vietnam was 15100 yuan/ton, 800 yuan/ton higher than last week.

• As of May 30, the price of RSS3 cigarette adhesive in the domestic market was 18100 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton month on month.

Data source: QinRex, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute

The price of Thai standard and hybrid rose significantly

• As of May 30, the price of Thai standard was 1890 dollars/ton, up 80 dollars/ton month on week, and the price of printed standard was 1830 dollars/ton, up 90 dollars/ton month on week.

• As of May 30, the CIF price of Thai concrete was 1880 US dollars/ton, up 80 US dollars/ton month on week, while the CIF price of Malaysian concrete was 1830 US dollars/ton, up 70 US dollars/ton month on week.

• As of May 30, the RMB price of Thai Hybrid was 14900 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton month on week.

Data source: QinRex, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute

RU-NR is weak but space is limited

RU and NR rose sharply, RU-NR price difference weakened

• As of May 30, the closing price of RU09 was 15670 yuan/ton, up 640 yuan/ton month on month. RU01 closed at 16880 yuan/ton, up 670 yuan/ton month on month.

• As of May 30, the closing price of NR was 13460 yuan/ton, up 760 yuan/ton month on month.

• As of May 30, the RU-NR price difference was 2210 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton month on month.

Data source: Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute

Thai hybrid RU price difference weakens

• As of May 30, the SCRWF-RU basis was - 820 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan/ton month on month.

• As of May 30, the STR20-NR basis difference was - 233 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton month on month.

• As of May 30, the price difference between Thai concrete and RU was - 2301 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/ton month on month.

Data source: Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute

NR, RU monthly difference C structure

• As of May 30, the monthly difference between RU09-01 was - 1205 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton month on month.

• As of May 30, the difference between the first consecutive month and the second consecutive month of NR was - 60 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton month on month; The difference between NR for two consecutive months and three consecutive months was - 30 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton month on month.

Data source: Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute

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