Source: feed industry information network
Over the weekend, the egg price remained strong and continued to rise slightly, with the average price exceeding 4 yuan/kg. According to the survey of Zhongtai Futures, as of May 19, the average price of pink eggs was 4 yuan/jin, and the average price of red eggs was 4.05 yuan/jin. At present, the egg price has reached above the comprehensive breeding cost line, and the layer breeding is profitable.
The supply side has not changed much, and this increase in egg prices is mainly driven by the consumer side. Inventory in production areas and circulation channels is still low, egg Consumption is released quickly in a short time. The price of vegetables in the south has risen, the substitution effect of eggs has strengthened, the arrival of goods in the southern market area has increased significantly, and downstream traders prefer to receive goods. There is not much surplus, and the price of eggs continues to rise. The market circulation speed was accelerated and the rising atmosphere was strong. However, with the rise of egg prices, the pace of old chicken elimination slowed down, while the growth rate of new chicken production accelerated, and the supply of eggs was sufficient. With the arrival of the plum and rainy season, the high temperature and high humidity weather is not conducive to egg storage. Egg quality problems occur frequently, and the enthusiasm of the market for shipment increases, to prevent the rapid decline of egg prices in the later period.
Logic and view: The spot market has risen strongly in the near future, and the discount range of futures contracts has increased in the near future. In the short term, it may remain strong, but in the later period, it is still possible to follow the spot market down, and focus on the future spot market decline. The core logic of the far month lies in the low egg price to reduce production capacity. Recently, the egg price has risen, and breeding has turned to profit. The pace of old chicken elimination is expected to slow down, which is not conducive to the reduction of production capacity of laying hens and suppresses the rising space in the far month. In terms of operation, it is suggested that we should mainly wait and see, wait for the high position to short, and pay attention to the rhythm.
Safe, fast and guaranteed futures account opening on Sina cooperation platform
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP
