Short term freight rates are still supported, and soda ash is slightly strong, causing shock _ Sina Finance

Source: Funeng Futures

zero one

Focus

1. The market is mainly driven by the news that CMA has resumed its voyage to the Red Sea, that is, Dafei has resumed the transit of Suez Canal served by the Asia Mediterranean BEX2 route.

2. At present, the geopolitical conflict has not eased. Previously, Dafei resumed its voyage under the protection of the French Navy, and most ship companies did not meet this condition. Therefore, the probability of large-scale resumption is low, and short-term freight rates are still supported.

3. August is about to enter the traditional peak stocking season of the European line. At the same time, the transport capacity is tight due to the supply chain disturbance. It is expected that the short-term contracts in recent months will run stronger. Far month is still disturbed by geopolitical conflicts. In addition, this year is a big year for the delivery of transport capacity, and the space for subsequent freight price game increases.

4. Technically, the moving average system is upward, and the short-term market enters the shock stage after rapid rise. (For reference only)

PVC

PVC suggested that more ideas should be involved and macro policy trends should be paid attention to.

1. On the policy side, there has been good news. Following the proposal of real estate purchase and storage, the State Council will hold a discussion on real estate on Friday to further boost market sentiment;

2. Due to the limited movie sound in Inner Mongolia, the supply of calcium carbide is tight, the price fluctuates and rises, and the cost side has some support, and the subsequent summer high temperature still has some disturbance on the supply of calcium carbide;

3. The maintenance of PVC production enterprises increased. The new maintenance capacity from May to June was 3.15 million tons/year, and the supply side inventory was expected to decrease;

4. Technically, the PVC moving average system is upward, and the Changyang Line is above all moving averages, which is expected to continue to be strong in the short term. (For reference only)

Soda ash

The supply side is disturbed by the environmental protection policy, and the macro benefit is continuous. The soda ash may operate with strong shocks, so we can focus on the opportunities of bargain hunting and multi entry.

1. In the past two days, environmental protection news spread again in some regions. The market's expectation for the production reduction of soda ash supply increased, triggering increased speculation on the supply side of soda ash.

2. The macro benefits are continuous: this week, the market news spread that "the government purchases and stores the stock housing", the NDRC said that it promotes the construction of affordable housing, and the super long special debt policy boosted the market trading sentiment.

3. Fundamentals: the supply of soda ash has declined, the output of soda ash is 709600 tons (- 10600 tons on a weekly basis, - 1.47%), and downstream photovoltaic Glass Continuous ignition, strong demand support, and inventory continued to be slightly removed to 85300 tons (- 0.62 million tons on a weekly basis, - 0.70%).

4. Technical aspect: today, the main force of soda ash has broken through the 2200 line again, and the 20 day moving average has broken through the 10 day moving average. The momentum of bulls has become stronger, and the overall situation is relatively strong. (For reference only)

zero two

Today's Morning Post

crude oil : Inflation pressure in the United States has eased, but demand concerns continue to fluctuate widely

PX : Although the stock is abundant, it is supported by maintenance and oil regulation logic, and the space below is expected to be limited

PTA : The maintenance is increased, and the stock removal is maintained in the short term. The price performance is relatively resistant.

glycol : The import is expected to pick up in May, and the superimposed coal processing unit will restart. The long-term supply pressure is expected to increase, and the upward pressure is expected.

Spun : The short fiber stock has been accumulated again, but the profit is low, focusing on cost drive

PP : Stable supply, downstream low demand follow-up, oscillatory operation

PE: The maintenance of the device continues, but the downstream peak season ends and the operation is oscillatory

LPG: overseas supply increased, PDH started at a low level, which was slightly volatile

PVC: favorable policies plus supply contraction, strong shocks

methanol : Low inventory game, weak demand, high methanol shock

styrene : Cost support superimposes the expectation of supply and demand improvement. It is suggested to focus on multiple opportunities of styrene callback

urea : Supply decreases and demand increases, inventory decreases, market sentiment tends to be cautious, and urea range fluctuates.

Glass: the profit of glass is low, and the supply may be slightly reduced in May, and the operation may be volatile in the short term.

Soda ash: Today, affected by the downstream favorable situation and the expected overhaul of the unit, the volume of soda ash increased upward, and operated under short-term or strong shock. We continued to pay attention to the overhaul of the unit.

caustic soda : The downstream demand of caustic soda is weak and stable, and the short-term caustic soda price may fluctuate. It is recommended to operate cautiously.

Grease: MPOB data shows that Malaysia's inventory has rebounded, and palm oil is still under pressure in the short term, but the panel has digested some bad news in advance, and the downward space is limited. Recently, Indonesia has been affected by adverse weather, or has an impact on palm oil production. Pay attention to the production place in May June

Protein meal: Brazil flood slightly affects 2023/24 soybean Output, but domestic soybeans are concentrated in Hong Kong, short-term Soybean meal Mainly shock, Rapeseed meal Slightly stronger than soybean meal due to entering peak season

Coal and coke: The demand of steel mills for raw material replenishment still exists, and coal mines and coke enterprises have resumed production rapidly. Recently, the bad mood has been released, and the double coke industry has rebounded.

cotton : The difference between internal and external prices is widening, import pressure is high, overlapping demand is general, and cotton is weak

Steel ore: the macro expectation is improving, and the output of molten iron continues to rise, iron ore Demand improved, steel mills maintained a good pace of de stocking, and steel ore prices rebounded in shock.

Ferroalloy: manganese ore supply disturbance event fermentation, silicon and manganese fluctuations intensified.

Industrial silicon : In southwest China, there is an expectation that the electricity bill will fall and the production will increase, and the shock is weak.

Lithium carbonate : The growth rate of supply is higher than that of demand, and lithium carbonate is weak

Copper: supply at the mine end shrinks, and copper prices fluctuate slightly.

Aluminum: the fundamental support becomes stronger, and the aluminum price is relatively strong.

alumina : Under the ore supply gap, there is support below the alumina.

Stock index: The real estate policy continues to relax, reducing the drag on the economy. Driven by the stable growth policy, it is expected that the operation center of the future index will move up.

gold : Weak economic data joined in the cooling of inflation, Gold price Short term operation is expected to be strong.

zero three

Yesterday's market overview

Rise and fall of main contract