[20240519] Energetic group balance table and views
crude oil
Viewpoint: Brt80-90 interval oscillation. Macroscopically, it is slightly bearish, but the trend has not yet turned. Europe and China continue to release macro bullish signals, and the re inflation logic of early transactions needs to be verified by this week's CPI data; The focus of the market is still on the micro, inventory accumulation+weak spot; In the short term, there is still support around 80% before the arrival of the signal that the geography has not yet eased significantly.
Data source: WIND, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Steam coal
Viewpoint: Shanxi's output may increase; The price of imported coal is inverted, and the volume of imported coal arriving at the port is slightly lower than that of the previous year; The daily terminal consumption has recovered, but the inventory is still high,; The demand for replenishment is weak. On the whole, the current supply and demand are weak, the downstream has weak acceptance of coal rebound, and the coal price may continue to be weak.
Data source: WIND, Zijin Tianfeng Futures urea
Viewpoint: In terms of supply, Nissan is reduced due to maintenance; The export policy is relaxed, but the export profit is poor, so we need to pay attention to the rebound of international prices; At present, the demand for compound fertilizer is still good, and there is still a certain demand for plates. On the whole, the current basis of urea is high, and the downstream demand continues to be strong, but it is expected to weaken, and the future price may continue to maintain wide volatility in the short term.
Data source: WIND, Zijin Tianfeng Futures asphalt
Viewpoint: Neutral bias (pyrolysis price difference). The weekly demand improved but still could not let the refinery go out of storage. The balance sheet was still surplus in May, driving downward.
Balance sheet: adjust the output according to the maintenance situation, and adjust the demand according to the high-frequency data.
Data source: WIND, Zijin Tianfeng Futures PTA
Viewpoint: PTA balance is slightly improved, but the drive is limited, and the cost of crude oil and PX Stabilizing, there is little room for short-term downside, and focus on selling bearish opportunities.
At the supply end, the maintenance of PTA device is slightly increased. The maintenance of Hengli Huizhou and Jiaxing Petrochemical was completed and restarted, and the maintenance of Yisheng New Materials on May 16 was expected to restart in early June. Honggang Petrochemical plans to maintain until May 21, when Fuhaichuang is affected by raw materials or reduces the load subsequently, Hengli 1 # and Weilian continue to maintain, and the new units Yizheng and Taihua recover to full load. Pay attention to Hanbang's restart progress in June.
On the demand side, the weaving side steadily lowered the load slightly, and by the 17th, the operating rates of texturing, weaving, printing and dyeing had remained 93%, 77% and 85%. The polyester production was reduced jointly, and the load was reduced to 88.5%. The load was estimated to be 89.5% in May and 90% in June.
PTA balance sheet, new materials at the supply end are overhauled in advance, Fuhaichuang is expected to reduce the load, supply is slightly improved, and PTA balance destocking is limited. In the early stage, the negative impact on PX eased, the gasoline cracking stabilized, and the space below PTA was limited under the seasonal expected improvement, focusing on the opportunity of selling and bearish.
Data source: WIND, Zijin Tianfeng Futures PX
Viewpoint: PX maintenance accidents increased, balance slightly improved, short-term negative relief, maintenance accidents increased, focus on seasonal improvement.
PX device is dynamic, and accidental maintenance at the supply end has increased. The overhaul of Daxie is cancelled, the restructuring problem of Zhejiang Petrochemical is expected to reduce the PX load for two weeks, and Fuhua disproportionation affects the PX line for four weeks, and Fuhai is under overhaul. In terms of overseas devices, South Korea SKGC and Japan Chuguang continue to repair, and India Reliance slightly reduces the load.
From the balance point of view, PX accidental maintenance increased, balance is expected to continue to improve, and short-term focus on seasonal improvement.
Data source: WIND, Zijin Tianfeng Futures MEG
Viewpoint: glycol After the festival, there was an increase in the maintenance of the supply side, and the polyester load was reduced, and the balance was slightly removed from the warehouse. At present, both explicit and implicit inventory are not high, so pay attention to the opportunity of buying low.
At the supply end, the maintenance of ethylene glycol oil system was extended, and there was an accident in the coal system. Zhenhai continued to stop, and the restart of Fujian Refining was delayed. Sinopec Wuhan and Hainan Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. slightly increased the negative load of the ring ratio, and Zhejiang Petrochemical One Line cracking was restarted. After the ethylene glycol was started, the satellite's negative load was reduced; Tongliao 5.13 was overhauled for 15-20 days, Henan Energy Yongcheng 5.15 was shut down for 10 days, Weihua is expected to discharge materials nearby on the 20th, but Yanchang has not been restarted, Hubei Sanning was overhauled and subsequently converted to synthetic ammonia production, Jianyuan was shut down for 10 days, and Yuneng and Zhongkun are discharging materials. Ethylene glycol overseas trends: Taiwan Zhongxian plans to stop production for one month in June, LG Dashan starts to switch production to EO in May, Lotte stops production for 700000 tons, and South Asia has not been restarted.
On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream weaving slightly decreased, polyester production decreased, and the load decreased to 88.5%. In May, the load assessment decreased to 89.5%.
From the balance point of view, the maintenance of oil supply system has been extended, the unplanned increase of coal plants has reduced the negative demand, the balance is expected to go to the warehouse slightly, the current inventory is not high, and attention is paid to the opportunity of low purchase.
Data source: WIND, Zijin Tianfeng Futures styrene
Viewpoint: The biggest change this week came from the new delivery factory warehouse, and the change of the disk pricing center will lead to the price moving down 150-200 points. The fundamentals of pure benzene are stable and tight, the demand for styrene is picking up, and the port stocks of both are at a low level. The future concern comes from the weakening of overseas oil transfer, and the increase in imports of pure benzene may occur. However, the gasoline peak season in North America has not really started, and aromatics support still exists. After the negative impact of the panel joke factory and warehouse, it began to reflect that the fundamentals improved. In the short term, it is expected that the unilateral price will continue to rise, and the price range will remain 8900-9600. The bilateral proposal is to expand the price difference between styrene and pure benzene.
Data source: WIND, Zijin Tianfeng Futures PVC
viewpoint ： Fundamentals, Semi coke and calcium carbide rebounded, and ethylene prices declined slightly. PVC supply dropped to around 78%. Weekly export declines, but there are still export expectations. Affected by the real estate policy and the marginal improvement of fundamentals, the market has risen significantly. It is expected that the future demand will be good, and it cannot be verified or falsified at this stage. The rebound in the market led to the rise in the spot market, the increase in hedging demand, and the purchase of just as needed. Again, the 09 contract, reality versus expectation, industry versus capital, fundamentals versus technology.
In terms of strategy, The fundamental margin has improved, the overall macro atmosphere of commodities and the real estate policy are expected to be better, and empty orders are avoided.
Supply and profit: 49.94% (- 1.42%) of the construction started in semi coke. Shenmulan charcoal 980 yuan/ton rose 40% from last week; The maintenance of calcium carbide rose by 68.1% (-2.35%), and Wuhai calcium carbide rose by 100 yuan from last week to 2800 yuan. Ethylene CFR dropped by 5 to 856 US dollars/ton in Northeast Asia. PVC construction started and decreased by 2.37% to 78.32%. Industrial chain profit: the loss of northwest integration at PVC end was 380, and the loss of carbide method was narrowed significantly. Shandong caustic soda The chlorine profit is 505, the comprehensive profit in North China is 100, the comprehensive profit in Northwest China is 220, and the price difference between two tons is 2933. Semi coke lost 56% and calcium carbide lost 80%.
Demand and inventory: The downstream profiles started 48.89%, and the pipes 50.94%, unchanged last week. On May 10, the export volume to be delivered was 160600 tons, an increase of 11400 tons over the previous period. The social warehouse is 547500 tons (- 01000 tons), the factory warehouse is 377400 tons (- 0.25 million tons), and the overall stock is slightly removed.
macroscopic: The real estate policy is frequent, and many places buy back the property, reduce the down payment ratio, guarantee the delivery of the building, etc., so the mood is good.
Data source: WIND, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Caustic soda
Viewpoint: The high level of supply declined. Shandong mainstream 32 caustic soda rose 10 points to 740, and the price of Jiangsu liquid caustic soda continued to rebound. The FOB of exported flake caustic soda was USD 465, and the FOB of 50 caustic soda was 370-380. The order of 50 caustic soda was received and the situation was alleviated. downstream alumina Although the resumption of production is in progress, there is no clear time node, and Shanxi and Henan enterprises that have resumed production are mainly supplemented by imported ores, with less alkali consumption than domestic ores. The focus of caustic soda demand is the recovery of domestic mines. The maintenance of caustic soda increased in the week, the delivery of goods to downstream large factories decreased, and the vehicle pressure was relieved. From the panel view In 2009, the current premium is high, the spot price rises slightly, and the panel premium narrows slightly. 09 and 9-1 are expected to have sufficient transactions in peak season.
Strategy, The low price in 2009 can wait for the premium to narrow, and more than 09 orders and 9-1 sets can be rolled.
Raw salt: The supply of lake salt is tight, the price center of gravity is rising, and sea salt is stable. Lake salt 275, sea salt 310.
Liquid chlorine: Shandong liquid chlorine dropped by 200 to 250, and the price of liquid chlorine fell due to downstream maintenance.
Current price: North China 32 liquid caustic soda reported 740 (2312 yuan); 50 alkali report 1320. Futures 09 reported 2828 (converted to 32 alkali 905), 09 basis - 516. The basis strengthened slightly.
Supply: The caustic soda started 86.90% this week, down 2.9 percentage points.
stock: The inventory of enterprises with a capacity of more than 200000 tons in Longzhong caliber is 408000 tons (- 28000 tons).
Requirements: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 42.844 million tons, and the operating rate is 95.60% (+0.22%). The operating capacity of alumina is 84.35 million tons, 81.56% (-0.63%) of which was started. Yunnan Electrolytic Aluminum continued to increase its production capacity, and the remaining capacity may resume production in the near future. There is still no specific schedule for the resumption of production of domestic alumina ore.
Data source: Wind, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute methanol
Viewpoint: At the beginning of the week, the paper cargo end was crowded, leading to a sharp rise in the price of the plate. Then the real estate policy stimulated the collective rise of commodities, leading to a sharp rise in methanol prices this week, especially the spot end. From the supply side, there is still too much maintenance in the mainland, and the port volume is not high in the past two weeks, which leads to the tight supply of port goods, and the port inventory goes to the warehouse again; In terms of demand, traditional demand has weakened slightly but not significantly, olefin maintenance has increased significantly, and low profits of olefins have led to negative feedback. The slight weakening of mainland demand has led to a slight cooling of mainland sentiment, but the tight port market has led to hot ports and obvious market differentiation. On the whole, the regional supply is tight to support the price. Although negative feedback has started but has not yet been fed back to the inventory, the price may still be strong before the inventory has yet to rise, but the upward momentum may gradually weaken, cautious but strong but not recommended to follow up. Pay attention to the dynamics of the olefin plant.
Data source: WIND, Zijin Tianfeng Futures polyolefin
Viewpoint: The price of polyolefins rose sharply in the week, mainly due to the support of the recent excessive maintenance volume and the macro favorable situation. Supply and demand, supply side PP /PE maintenance increased significantly, and PP maintenance loss increased significantly. In terms of demand, the operating rate of downstream devices has little change, the demand for PE agricultural film continues to show seasonal weakness, the operating rate of PP downstream fluctuates in a narrow range, and downstream profits continue to be compressed. To sum up, with the sharp rise of futures prices in the near future, the spot side is also rising significantly, and the valuation side is also continuing to repair in the near future. At present, the PE panel valuation is on the high side, the PP valuation is on the neutral side, the off-season superimposes the pressure of low profits in the downstream, the upper space is cautious, the supply and demand side is still on the high side of the maintenance volume, there is still support, it is expected that the high level will fluctuate, and it is not recommended to pursue the high level.
Data source: WIND, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Disclaimer
This report is based on the public data or field research data that Zijin Tianfeng Futures Co., Ltd. and its researchers believe to be credible, and only reflects the different assumptions, opinions and analysis methods of the author of this report, but Zijin Tianfeng Futures Co., Ltd. does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of these information, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Co., Ltd. does not guarantee that these information will not be changed. The information and opinions expressed in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any final operation suggestions for investment, law, accounting or tax. Zijin Tianfeng Futures Co., Ltd. does not make any guarantee for the final operation suggestions on the contents of the report, Any investment decision made by the investor according to this report has nothing to do with Zijin Tianfeng Futures Co., Ltd. and the author of this report.
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