Common feed proteins in China are Soybean meal 、 Rapeseed meal , cottonseed meal, DDGS peanut Meal, fish meal, sunflower meal, meat and bone meal, etc. Soybean meal accounts for the largest proportion. The proportion of soybean meal in the crude protein provided by feed protein is 72% in 2021/22 and 73% in 2022/23. In 2022/23, the total supply of rapeseed meal will be 7.05 million tons, with 2.54 million tons of pure protein converted, accounting for 5.77% of the total supply of pure protein in feed protein, which is relatively small. The total supply of domestic feed protein soybean meal will take the lead.
Source: Brick Agricultural Big Data, General Administration of Customs, Unit: 10000 tons
Note 1: Due to the large proportion of domestic fishmeal, the proportion of domestic fishmeal is mainly
Note 2: The yield of fermented soybean meal is not considered. If fermented soybean meal is classified as soybean meal, the proportion of soybean meal is higher
Note 3: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal and cottonseed meal are crop years, fish meal, DDGS and other protein raw materials are natural years, and the crop year is aligned with the month in the natural year
Note 4: Other protein materials include Corn Protein powder, sunflower meal, meat and bone meal, peanut meal and other feed protein materials not separately listed
Soybean meal: Soybean meal imported from China soybean Crushing production is dominant, and the import volume is very small. The net import is negative. In 2022/23, the domestic output of soybean meal will be 74.86 million tons, which is far higher than the total value of other feed proteins. It is the largest feed protein raw material. According to the conversion of pure protein, soybean meal provides 73% of the crude protein in the protein raw material, accounting for an absolute position. Soybean meal has a high content of crude protein and a balanced structure of amino acids, which is suitable for all kinds of livestock and poultry, aquatic products and all stages, including breeding livestock and poultry.
Rapeseed meal: Rapeseed meal in China is still pressed domestically Rapeseed The production is dominated. The pressed rapeseed is mainly domestic rapeseed, accounting for 65-78% in recent eight years. The imported rapeseed is mainly imported from Canada. In addition, the overall import of rapeseed meal in China has shown an increasing trend in recent years. In 2015/16, the import of rapeseed meal was only 180000 tons, and in 2022/23, the import of rapeseed meal reached 2.21 million tons. The import of rapeseed meal is mainly from Canada. The annual supply of rapeseed meal is 6.5-7.1 million tons, and the converted protein ranks second in feed raw materials. Rapeseed meal is mainly used for aquatic products. In addition to the price advantage of rapeseed meal in some regions and stages, the proportion of rapeseed meal in livestock and poultry feed is small.
Up to now, the habit of use and the number of rapeseed meal are relatively small. Rapeseed meal is still mainly aquatic, used as the main protein raw material for fresh water and low value mariculture feed or added with auxiliary feed protein in high-value mariculture feed. Rapeseed meal is mainly used for aquatic feed, which accounts for more than 70% of the demand.
The demand for aquatic feed is seasonal. Generally, after the Spring Festival, the demand for aquatic feed increases gradually from south to north, reaching the peak of demand in July August every year. The data of the Feed Industry Association also shows the characteristics of this cycle.
Source: Feed Industry Association, monthly data will not be released in September 2022
More than 70% of rapeseed meal is used for aquatic products. Domestic rapeseed meal is mainly supplied by domestic rapeseed pressing, and domestic rapeseed is mainly winter rapeseed. The market time is mainly from May to June. Rapeseed is pressed in time after harvest to meet the demand for rapeseed meal of domestic aquatic products. Spring rapeseed accounts for a relatively small proportion, which is mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia and western regions, accounting for 10%. In winter, the amount of aquatic products in the pond is reduced, and the demand for feed from low-temperature aquatic products is reduced. Winter is an off-season for aquatic products demand. In addition to a small amount of aquatic products demand, rapeseed meal can only compete with other meals in winter. For livestock and poultry, the competition needs to reflect its price advantage, that is, the price of single egg white is lower than that of soybean meal. If the quantity of rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports is low in winter, although winter is an off-season for aquatic feed demand, it can also be digested in a large proportion. However, if the quantity of rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports is high, it is easy to lead to a large pressure on the winter stock of rapeseed meal. If the quantity of aquatic storage in winter in that year is small, and the temperature in the spring of the new year rises slowly, rapeseed meal is easy to bear pressure.
In 2023, the high price of fish meal and rapeseed meal will lead to the high price of aquatic feed, while the price of aquatic products will decline, resulting in a large proportion of losses in aquaculture. In the third quarter of 2023, aquaculture farmers will generally clear the pond, reducing the expectation of storing the pond in winter. Even though the scale of aquaculture facilities has increased in recent years, aquaculture farmers will generally clear the pond in the late autumn, and the aquatic feed will decline in the fourth quarter. While the demand for aquatic feed declined, the imports of rapeseed and rapeseed meal were at a high level, and the imports of sunflower meal as a substitute for rapeseed meal also increased.
Customs data show that China's rapeseed imports from November to December 2023 totaled 1.074 million tons, an increase of 128000 tons compared with 946000 tons in the same period of 2022. The rapeseed imports from November to December were 534000 tons, an increase of 72% compared with the same period of 2022. The increase in rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports superimposed the impact of low price sunflower meal imports. Rapeseed meal has a huge supply pressure and faces low levels of aquatic products, livestock and poultry, Rapeseed meal can only compete with soybean meal in livestock and poultry by reducing its single protein price. On February 28, the price of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 2480 yuan/ton, the price of single protein was 68.89 yuan, the price of soybean meal was 3240 yuan/ton, and the price of single protein was 75.35 yuan. Rapeseed meal has a significant price advantage.
China's imports of rapeseed and rapeseed meal are mainly concentrated in spring rapeseed in the Northern Hemisphere, which is listed in winter. This factor also makes China's imports of rapeseed and rapeseed meal mainly concentrated in November to the first quarter of the next year. The customs has not yet announced the import of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in January, but it is known from relevant information that the import of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in January remained high, forming pressure. Rapeseed meal was in the most pessimistic period of the year in January. Due to the temperature drop again around the Lantern Festival, the temperature in other places is still low except South China, where the temperature meets the requirements for seeding. The slowdown of aquatic seeding delayed the demand for rapeseed meal, and the market was under pressure.
The low price of rapeseed meal and the low price of renting ponds have reduced the cost of aquaculture in 2024, and the amount of aquaculture will not be less in 2024. Moreover, the high price of fish meal has reduced the cultivation of some meat products and turned them into omnivores. The protein raw material of omnivore aquatic feed is mainly rapeseed meal. Rapeseed meal is faced with high inventory and low demand in the short term. However, with the temperature rising in mid March, the demand for aquatic products increasing and the import of rapeseed and rapeseed meal decreasing in the later period, the price of rapeseed meal is still expected.
