In the first ten days of May, the overall downturn of the domestic rice market did not change, and multiple players were short of the future market. Rice processing enterprises were slow to move their goods, dealers were not willing to stock up, and stored and aged rice in various provinces and regions were intensively rotated. The loose supply and demand led to low auction success rate. The rice market during the May Day holiday was not as active as expected. The market participants were cautious and had insufficient confidence in the market after the festival. It is expected that the rice market will continue to remain stable, medium and weak in the later period.
International rice price stops falling and recovers
Overseas procurement has increased
After the May Day holiday, the international rice price gradually stopped falling and recovered, among which the price of rice in Thailand and Vietnam rose, while the price of rice in Pakistan continued to fall slightly. According to the monitoring, as of May 9, Thailand's rice FOB quotation of 5% crushing rate was 614 dollars/ton, up 15 dollars/ton from last week, up 105 dollars/ton year on year; Thailand steamed rice FOB quotation is 616 dollars/ton, up 14 dollars/ton from last week, up 95 dollars/ton year on year; Thai fragrant rice FOB quoted 873 dollars/ton, up 15 dollars/ton from last week, up 3 dollars/ton year on year. The weakness of the Thai baht and the increase in overseas procurement demand boosted the price of rice in Thailand. The more The rice with a crushing rate of 5% in South China was quoted at $587/ton FOB, up $6/ton from last week, up $97/ton year on year; Vietnam fragrant rice FOB quoted 668 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars/ton from last week, up 93 dollars/ton year on year. Pakistan's rice with 5% crushing rate was quoted at 577 US dollars/ton FOB, down 3 US dollars/ton from last week, up 32 US dollars/ton year on year; Pakistan's 2% crushing rate, Basmatimi, was quoted at 940 US dollars/ton FOB, down 2 US dollars/ton from last week, down 333 US dollars/ton year-on-year.
The output of ground storage wheel increases significantly
Continuous loose supply of rice
In April, the local reserve rice in southern provinces began to enter the intensive rotation period. The number and frequency of rotation increased significantly compared with that in March, becoming the main supply force in the rice market at this stage Early indica rice And Late indica rice Mainly, Japonica rice There is also a small amount of rotation. According to statistics, in April, Hunan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang provinces sold 699000 tons of rice in total, an increase of 215000 tons or 44.4% over March. Since March, the gradual increase of paddy stored in the ground has turned out, and the loose supply and demand situation in the paddy spot market has further intensified.
In the first ten days of May, the rotation of local reserved rice in the southern provinces continued to advance, with a large amount of rice output in rotation and a further reduction in the amount of purchase in rotation. From May 6 to 8, Guangdong Province conducted two-way procurement and sales. The bidding procurement will produce 5000 tons of mid late indica rice in 2023, with the actual transaction price of 3200 yuan/ton, or about 130 yuan/ton; The accumulated sales volume of early indica rice from 2021 to 2022 is 58000 tons, the actual transaction price is 2400-3172 yuan/ton, and the premium is 0-172 yuan/ton. Hunan Province sold 18000 tons of indica rice from 2020 to 2023, with the actual transaction price of 2400-2820 yuan/ton, all of which were sold at the bottom price, and there were many auctions. Hubei Province sold 3000 tons of medium and late indica rice from 2021 to 2023, and the actual transaction price was 2780 yuan/ton, all at the bottom price. Jiangxi Province sold 14000 tons of mid late indica rice in 2021, with the actual transaction price of 2641 yuan/ton, basically at the bottom price. Jiangsu Province sells 5000 tons of japonica rice from 2022 to 2023, the actual transaction price is 2805-2811 yuan/ton, and the premium is 45-110 yuan/ton. Fujian Province will sell 2000 tons of japonica rice in 2022, the actual transaction price is 2803 yuan/ton, and the premium is 3 yuan/ton.
Loose spot supply of indica rice
Indica rice prices continue to weaken
In the first ten days of May, the southern indica rice market experienced intensive rotation of stored rice, and the situation of loose supply in the spot market intensified. However, the downstream consumption of rice remained weak. Under the situation of loose supply and demand, the indica rice market continued to weaken. As of May 9, the purchase price of "Fengliangyou" rice in Yichun, Jiangxi Province was 2770 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of rice was 3930 yuan/ton. The purchase and sales in the spot market were not brisk, and market participants were cautious. The purchase price of "Fengliangyou" rice in Yichang, Hubei is 2760~2800 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of rice is 3960~4000 yuan/ton. The purchase and sale in the spot market is light, and the market players are in a strong wait-and-see mood. The purchase price of ordinary hybrid rice in Changde, Hunan is 2720 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of rice is 3860 yuan/ton. The consumption of rice is weak, the dealers' enthusiasm for stocking up is not high, and the overall willingness to purchase is low.
The price of japonica rice is stable and weak
Low activity of spot purchase and sales
In early May, japonica rice production in Northeast China continued to advance, and the focus of market players gradually shifted to new rice production. Grass roots farmers' surplus rice has dropped to about 10%. Although some traders have stocks, they are not willing to sell at low prices. It is expected that rice prices will continue to stabilize and weaken in the later period.
As of May 9, the purchase price of ordinary round grained japonica rice market in Jiamusi, Heilongjiang Province was 2660~2720 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of rice was 3640~3700 yuan/ton. The activity of rice purchase and sales was low, and the market participants were cautious; The purchase price of "Suijing 18" rice in Qiqihar is 3460 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of rice is 4900 yuan/ton. The market main body is busy with the production of new rice, and the spot purchase and sales are still weak. The purchase price of Jilin Changchun super rice is 3100 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of super rice is 4360~4400 yuan/ton. The market demand is weak, and the price is stable. The purchase price of "Liaoxing" rice in Panjin, Liaoning Province is 3100~3120 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of rice is 4360~4400 yuan/ton. The delivery of rice is slow, and the market players enter the market cautiously. The purchase price of ordinary japonica rice in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province is 2840~2860 yuan/ton, and the factory price of rice is 3740~3760 yuan/ton. The downstream consumption of rice is weak, the price of rice is stable, and the price of rice is not in the market.
Rice bran market purchase price: Heilongjiang Jiamusi 2280 yuan/ton, Jiangsu Xuzhou 2320 yuan/ton, Liaoning Yingkou 2400 yuan/ton, Hunan Yueyang 2520 yuan/ton, all the same as last week. Rice bran meal market purchase price: Heilongjiang Jiamusi 1510 yuan/ton, Guangdong Zhaoqing 1940 yuan/ton, both down 30 yuan/ton; Jiangsu Xuzhou, 1680 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; Liaoning Yingkou 1680 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; Hubei Jingmen was 1780 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Rice husk price: Heilongjiang Jiansanjiang 320 yuan/ton, flat; Hunan Yiyang 400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. （ The original text was published on May 11, 2024, Grain and Oil Market News A03)
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