Apple viewpoint
■ Market analysis
In terms of futures, the closing price of Apple 2410 contract was 7464 yuan/ton yesterday, up 29 yuan/ton or 0.39% from the previous day. In terms of spot goods, the spot price of 80 # commodity fruit in Qixia, Shandong was 2.8 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot basis was AP10-1860, down 30% from the previous day; The spot price of 70 # apple in Luochuan, Shaanxi, was 3.6 yuan/jin, the same as the previous day, and the spot basis difference was AP10-260, 30 yuan lower than the previous day.
Market information: the apple market in the production area is stabilizing, Shandong merchants are moderately motivated to get the goods, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable. The fruit farmers in the by-product areas have been clearing the warehouse in succession, and the quality of the goods in the warehouse is different, and the fruit farmers are actively shipping at the same price. At present, Shandong Qixia preserved fruit has rebounded slightly to about 0.56 yuan/jin. Late Fuji 80 # first and second grade red fruit farmers' good goods are 2.3-2.8 yuan/jin, and ordinary goods are 1.5-2.0 yuan/jin; Stripe goods are 2.5-2.8 yuan/jin, and 80 # ordinary goods are 1.5-1.8 yuan/jin. Fruit agricultural currency 1.3-1.8 yuan/jin; The third and fourth grade fruits are 0.7-1.2 yuan/jin, and the price is determined according to the quality. At present, in Luochuan production area, Shaanxi Province, the average price of over 70 # fruit farmers is 1.5-2.5 yuan/kg, the mainstream price of over 70 # fruit farmers' semi commodities is 3.6-3.8 yuan/kg, the high mainstream price in the warehouse is 0.7-1.2 yuan/kg, and the price of 80 # semi commodities for merchants is 4.3-4.8 yuan/kg, depending on the quality.
The future price of apples rose slightly yesterday. In terms of spot goods, the fruit setting in some production areas is poor, and the output may be lower than that of last year. Considering the factors of higher weather in recent production areas, or affecting the quality of apples in the new season, pay attention to the fruit setting in production areas and the downstream spot consumption. Last week, there was a slight slowdown in Shandong production area's inventory, with fruit growers mainly delivering at low prices. Merchants began to search for fruit growers of general or higher quality, and fruit growers' sentiment of carrying the price weakened, with the overall price declining compared with that before the festival. From the perspective of new season fruit, Shandong production area has entered the fruit setting period. The fruit setting in eastern towns of Qixia and Yiyuan depression area is poor, while that in other production areas is fair. During the week, the apple market in Shaanxi continued its polarization trend. After the May Day goods preparation, most of the customers and merchants from the place of origin made replenishment on demand, and the speed of goods delivery did not increase significantly compared with the previous week. The transaction mainly focused on the cost-effective supply of goods. Since May, most of the by-product areas have entered the inventory clearing stage, and the inventory traders have increased their willingness to ship. However, the market is slightly confused due to the uneven quality of the remaining goods in the inventory. There is not much surplus of fruit farm goods in Gansu production area during the week. Customers and merchants mainly replenish the goods as needed during the week, and the speed of goods delivery is average. The overall arrival of the three major markets in Guangdong has decreased significantly compared with the previous week. After the May Day holiday, the market stock mood has cooled. In addition, recent seasonal fruits have come into the market, which has restricted the sales of apples. The overall digestion speed of apples is still slow. Apple prices are expected to be stable and weak this week. Focus of this week: weather conditions at the place of origin, fruit setting in the new season, going to the warehouse at the place of origin, mentality of merchants and fruit growers, market trading atmosphere in the sales area, and quality problems of inventory supply.
■ Strategy
neutral
■ Risk
Global economic recession (downside risk); Consumption is less than expected (downside risk); Weather conditions (downside risk)
Jujube viewpoint
■ Market analysis
In terms of futures, the red date 2409 contract closed yesterday at 12780 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous day. In terms of spot goods, the quotation of first-class jujube in Xinjiang production area was 13.43 yuan/kg, the same as the previous day, and the spot basis was CJ09+650, up 10% from the previous day; The spot price of Hebei first-class grey jujube was 12 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot basis was CJ09-780, up 10% from the previous day.
According to recent market information, the temperature in the main production area of grey jujube in South Xinjiang was around 17 ℃ - 33 ℃ this week. With the temperature rising, the branches of jujube trees grew rapidly, and the new season jujube trees gradually entered the initial flowering period. At present, the overall growth is normal. The jujube farmers actively carry out bud wiping and pest control, and pay attention to the growth of red jujube in the production area. Fifteen cars arrived in Hebei Cuierzhuang jujube exchange market. The supply of goods was sufficient, and the enthusiasm of merchants to get goods was weakened. The transaction price was slightly loosened by 0.10 yuan/kg, with reference to 11.70-12.10 yuan/kg for the first class, and 13.00-13.40 yuan/kg for the super class. The transaction was on the left of three cars. Five cars arrived in Guangdong market, with reference to the price of Class B goods of 14.00-14.30 yuan/kg and the first class price of 13.00-13.20 yuan/kg. Customers purchased as needed, and the carrier delivered goods at a discount. The price was slightly lower than the opening price of 0.10-0.20 yuan/kg, and about two cars were sold as a whole.
The futures price of red dates continued to decline slightly yesterday. At present, the market in the sales area has sufficient goods. With the promotion of the Dragon Boat Festival, the spot transaction has been marginally improved, and the overall transaction is good. However, the main contract of red dates has maintained a volatile trend in terms of price. The production area has not yet reached its peak. Follow up to continue to pay attention to the arrival of goods in the sales area and the downstream festival consumption. The market focus is mainly on the growth trend of new season red dates and the stock situation at the Dragon Boat Festival. The growth of red dates in the new season may dominate the trend of the 09 contract. The germination time of grey dates in the new season is 15-20 days earlier than that of last year. At present, the growth is normal, the temperature in the production area is rising, and the branches of jujube trees are growing rapidly. Some buds have been seen, and they are about to enter the early flowering period; Although it is too early to judge the output and quality of the new season at this time, the weather in the production area may cause changes in the panel. At present, the Dragon Boat Festival is in the period of goods preparation. There is a certain demand for goods preparation in the traditional peak season market, and there is a shortage of high-quality goods at the large and secondary levels. Attention is paid to the arrival of goods in the market and the downstream capacity, and the price increases slightly in the short term. However, on the other hand, in addition to the smooth fluctuation of the spot price transaction, the current mainland merchants still have a certain wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. There is no hoarding of large goods for the time being, and the peak season is also difficult to drive the price to rise continuously, and the weak trend of other fruits and vegetables has a certain negative impact on red dates; Pay attention to whether the hedge funds purchased will continue to enter the market. At present, there are big differences between the long and short positions, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is general. Under the background of peak season, the shock is mainly strong.
■ Strategy
Shock is too strong
■ Risk
Local government support policy (upward risk), hot and dry weather (upward risk of far month contract), global economic recession (downward risk), consumption less than expected (downward risk)
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