■ Market analysis
Futures, closed yesterday Soybean meal The 2409 contract was 3565 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton or 0.82% from the day before yesterday; Rapeseed meal The 2409 contract was 2896 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton or 0.63% from the day before yesterday. In terms of spot, the spot price of soybean meal in Tianjin was 3460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the day before yesterday, and the spot basis was M09-105, down 29% from the day before yesterday; The spot soybean meal in Jiangsu was 3410 yuan/ton, unchanged from the day before yesterday, and the spot basis was M09-155, down 29% from the day before yesterday; The spot price of soybean meal in Guangdong was 3490 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the day before yesterday, and the spot basis was M09-75, down 9% from the day before yesterday. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2890 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the day before yesterday. The spot basis difference was RM09-6, up 2% from the day before yesterday.
According to recent market information, although serious floods have occurred in southern Brazil recently, Brazil National Commodity Supply Company estimates in its latest report that Brazil will be in 2023/24 soybean The output was 147.7 million tons, higher than the 146.5 million tons predicted last month, because the sown area data was increased, but it was still 6.92 million tons or 4.5% lower than the record output of 154.6 million tons last year. Anec said that Brazil's soybean export in May was raised to 14.13 million tons, compared with 13.21 million tons estimated the previous week, slightly lower than 14.43 million tons estimated in the same month; The Brazilian soybean meal export was raised to 2.43 million tons, and the previous week's estimate was 2.34 million tons, higher than the 2.28 million tons of the same export.
The soybean meal price fluctuated strongly yesterday. At present, the premium and discount in Brazil remain strong, which has an obvious supporting effect on the lower part of the soybean meal. Meanwhile, the production reduction forecast caused by the floods in Brazil and the weather impact at the sowing stage in the United States also simultaneously support the strong operation of the soybean meal price. The inventory of downstream oil plants began to accumulate gradually, and the spot demand was relatively weak, so the spot price was relatively stable. In the future, we still need to focus on the inventory and start-up of the oil plant, the change of premium and discount, and the impact of the weather on North and South America. It is expected that the price of soybean meal will still be strong in the short term.
■ Strategy
Unilateral cautious bullish
■ Risk
■ Market analysis
Futures, closed yesterday Corn The 2407 contract was 2459 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.12% from the day before yesterday; Corn starch The 2407 contract was 2859 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.53% from the day before yesterday. In terms of spot price, the spot price of corn in Liaoning was 2330 yuan/ton, unchanged from the day before yesterday, and the spot basis difference was C07-129, down 3% from the day before yesterday; The spot price of corn starch in Jilin region was 2900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the day before yesterday. The spot basis difference was CS07+41, down 15% from the day before yesterday.
According to the recent market information, the Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company said that as of May 12, the harvest progress of corn in the first quarter of 2023/24 was 68.1%, 63.1% a week ago, and 72.4% a year earlier.
Yesterday's corn futures prices fluctuated in a narrow range. In terms of supply, overall, the food sources continued to be consumed. The market's food sources tightened, and the selling pressure weakened significantly. The traders' warehouse building costs were high, and their mentality of being reluctant to sell at low prices was strong, which supported the market price. The price of wheat fell instead of rising, which weakened the traders who had planned to vacate the warehouse and aggravated the tightening of food supply. In terms of demand, after the completion of periodic replenishment of feed enterprises, the demand is gradually reduced, and the port has more grain substitutes, which makes it difficult to increase the demand for domestic corn. This week focuses on the shipment rhythm of traders, the willingness of downstream enterprises to build warehouses, and the import of grain and policy adjustment. Corn prices are expected to fluctuate this week.
■ Strategy
neutral
■ Risk
nothing
Safe, fast and guaranteed futures account opening on Sina cooperation platform
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP
