Source: Xingzheng Futures Author: Xingzheng Futures
Text of research report
Summary
methanol ： Spot quotation, Jiangsu 2965 (50), Guangdong 2745 (35), Lunan 2560 (15), Inner Mongolia 2340 (10), CFR China main port 286.5 (4)
In terms of fundamentals, in the mainland, the domestic operating rate has maintained a low level recently. Last week, the national methanol operating rate was 65.14% (-4.74%), and the methanol operating rate in northwest China was 69.31% (-9.89%). The maintenance was planned on June 15 in Guanghui, Xinjiang. The maintenance of the 400000 t/a methanol plant in Linhuan, Anhui started on May 7, and the 600000 t/a coal to methanol plant in Donghua, Inner Mongolia was ignited and restarted, After the products are delivered on May 10, the half load operation is maintained, and the full load is expected to be restored by the end of May.
In terms of ports, the total inventory of Zhuochuang Port last week was 572000 tons, 52000 tons less than the previous data. In terms of overseas, the operating rate of the external market continues to decline, reaching a historical low. In Malaysia Petronas, the operating load of Unit 1 is low, and Unit 2 is shut down for maintenance. It is planned to restart and recover in the near future. At present, one set of methanol units in Meteor and Supermetanol in Venezuela are shut down for maintenance, and the remaining units are operating stably. At present, BMC in Brunei is restarting and operating stably, Iran Zagros PC two sets of methanol units are shut down for maintenance.
In terms of demand, the traditional demand has gradually entered the off-season. Recently, there are many rumors about the MTO loss maintenance in coastal areas. Zhejiang Xingxing MTO plant has implemented maintenance. Nanjing Chengzhi's 600000 t/a methanol plant is operating normally, and its 295000 t/a MTO plant in Phase I is not satisfied with the maintenance load. It is planned to shut down for maintenance on May 20, and Shandong Hengtong's 300000 t/a MTO plant is 80% in operation, It is planned to stop for maintenance for 20 days on May 15. It is said that Fude MTO has suffered serious losses or will stop.
To sum up, recent domestic spring inspection starts have declined, overseas devices have repeatedly been in low inventory at the port, and the downstream MTO factory maintenance information on demand is frequent. Zhejiang Xingxing has fulfilled the maintenance, and Nanjing Chengzhi is about to enter the maintenance; Recently, the transaction of methanol port has been enlarged. There is a certain liquidity problem in the paper cargo in mid May. The continuous strengthening of the port basis has led to a rebound in the market. It is expected that the methanol spot and contract in the near month will remain relatively strong when the port is suspected of stock squeeze. In the near future, we will focus on the port inventory and paper cargo liquidity.
urea ： Spot quotation, Shandong 2368 (- 9), Anhui 2404 (4), Hebei 2346 (- 4), Henan 2348 (0)
Last week, the domestic urea market generally rose steadily, and the market turnover was fair. On May 17, the average price of small and medium-sized particles in the national market was 2380 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous working day. In terms of supply, the maintenance of upstream factories was fulfilled, and the daily output remained below 180000 tons. The supply side output declined slightly, and the supply tightening gave strong support to prices; In terms of demand, the downstream industry is in continuous demand, the production and sales of compound fertilizer are booming, the downstream of other industries are advancing steadily, and in terms of agricultural demand, the northeast and southern regions need to purchase rice fertilizer;
In terms of inventory, the total inventory of Zhuochuang urea enterprise last week was 268000 tons, 126000 tons less than the previous data. The upstream inventory continued to be largely destocked, which has been at a low level in recent years. In terms of export, urea for export inspection will be comprehensively checked and the policy will be tightened. On the whole, the supply of urea has decreased slightly in the near future. At present, it is in the peak season of agricultural demand. The inventory of urea enterprises continues to go to the warehouse and is at a low level, which has supported the market. The spot urea continues to rise, and the expected future price continues to fluctuate slightly.
1. Methanol spot market
Taicang market: Taicang methanol market is deadlocked, with prices ranging from 2890-2920 yuan/ton. Although the available resources are scarce, the resistance to high prices is highlighted, and the overall spot transaction volume is reduced month on month.
Jiangsu market: Jiangsu methanol market continued to rise through negotiation, with the mainstream negotiation intention price at 2950 - 2980 yuan/ton. In some regions, the supply of goods was tight, and low prices were hard to find.
Ningbo market: The methanol market in Ningbo has increased through negotiation, and some of the intentions refer to 2920-2930 yuan/ton, which is not sold at a low price.
Anhui market: the mainstream intended price of methanol market in Anhui today is 2640-2680 yuan/ton for acceptance, which is 15 yuan/ton higher than the average price of the previous trading day. The production enterprise is mainly responsible for shipping, and the downstream is mainly responsible for purchasing on demand, with the price center moving up.
Guangdong market: the price center of Guangdong market moved up today, and the mainstream negotiation was at 2730-2760 yuan/ton. The deal was successful.
Fujian market: Fujian methanol market has improved today, with the mainstream negotiation price of 2870 - 2880 yuan/ton. The local inventory is low, and the available supply is tight.
Inner Mongolia market: Today, the intended mainstream price of methanol in Inner Mongolia is 2310-2370 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton higher than the average price of the previous trading day. The production enterprise delivers goods at a discount, and the downstream purchase is mainly based on demand, with prices rising steadily.
2. Situation of urea spot market
The domestic urea market was mixed, and the follow-up of new orders was slightly slower. The load of compound fertilizer and plate is acceptable, and the raw materials follow up as required. The urea plant resumed production within the week, and the spot supply increased slightly. Specific area: The market price in Linyi, Shandong Province is 2388 yuan/ton, and the industrial follow-up tends to be cautious, and the actual transaction is single talk. The market price of Heze is 2360 yuan/ton, and the raw materials should be supplemented rationally, and the merchants should follow up the short term. The market price in Hebei is 2346 yuan/ton, and some units are stopped for maintenance, and new orders are ordered step by step.
At present, the domestic urea market is operating in a narrow and weak range, and the willingness to follow up just needs to slow down. The new orders of the factory are slightly weak, and the products to be delivered are mainly supplied to the surrounding markets.
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