Asphalt maintenance range is weak, and fuel oil demand is expected to remain good

Source: Xinhu Futures Author: Xinhu Futures

Text of research report

【 asphalt 】

The asphalt pan still maintained weak vibration in the interval. This week, the factory treasury went to the social treasury to collect funds. In May, the output increased on a month on month basis. It is reported that a refinery in Hebei released the delivery contract before the end of July, but due to the current tepid market performance, the middle and downstream customers have a strong wait-and-see mood and a low willingness to receive goods;

At present, the demand increment is also limited. The market in the north has improved recently, while in the south, the demand for road asphalt is general due to the excessive resources and the rainy season. Focus on short-term market crude oil Price changes.

【LPG】

The rainy season lasts from May to November. The water level is close to the 2020 level, and will continue to rise later. The Panama Canal Authority allowed dry bulk cargo ships to pass in the middle of May, which resulted in congestion of access gates, a sharp rise in VLGC auction fees, and a subsequent rise in freight, leading to an increase in landed costs.

Arbitrage from the Gulf of Mexico to the Far East will become slow due to Panama traffic problems, and the monthly difference in the external market will continue to strengthen. This week, the port volume was maintained at 600000 tons, there was no increase on the supply side, the demand side maintained the off-season logic, and PDH started and stopped alternately. In the middle of May, Silbang planned to start, but Haiwei Petrochemical planned to stop. The overall operating rate of PDH was not stable, the demand for raw materials procurement was limited, and the fundamentals were not driven. This week, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 91, and the number of warehouse receipts was at a seasonal low. Considering the low internal and external price difference and strong basis, short-term PG has a valuation repair, so we need to pay attention to the dynamic of warehouse receipts.

【 fuel oil 】

The demand side maintained a good expectation, and the Middle East entered the peak power generation season, so there was a demand for stock; In the peak season of bunkering, the marginal increase of high sulfur sales volume; Refinery feeding in the United States and China increased. The increment on the demand side conforms to the seasonal characteristics. When observing the actual demand landing, pay attention to the marginal increase on the supply side.

Russia's attacked refineries have been driving. Tuapse refinery was attacked by drones in January and started this week, with a refining capacity of 240000 barrels per day. The oil pipeline from Canada to the Pacific coast, Line 1, has a capacity of only 300000 barrels per day. Line 2, also known as TMX, has a capacity of 590000 barrels per day. It was put into operation in early May. The first batch of goods is scheduled to arrive in China in June. The opening of the pipeline has increased the supply of heavy oil resources in the Far East. The United States resumed sanctions against Venezuela, and the marginal flow of Venezuela's crude oil into the Far East increased.

In terms of inventory, Singapore's inventory increased by 16.4%, Fuchaila's inventory decreased by 3.8%, and ARA's inventory was at a medium high level. At present, there is no evidence that the seasonal demand for high sulfur will be stronger than that of last year, and there is a new increase on the supply side. Therefore, the high sulfur fundamentals in May are weaker month on month, and the price difference between high and low sulfur is expected to be weaker.

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