Source: Guantong Futures Author: Guantong Futures
Text of research report
Strategy Analysis
Downstream construction began to decline slightly, but China's manufacturing PMI was in the expansion range for two consecutive months. Ultra long term treasury bonds are about to be issued, and demand is expected to improve. Pay attention to whether subsequent demand can continue to rise. This week PP The operating rate dropped 4 percentage points month on month to a low level. Petrochemical accumulated more stocks during the May Day holiday, but it was in line with expectations. The first week after the May Day holiday, petrochemical destocking was OK, but this week's destocking was slow. Pay attention to the post holiday destocking, and stack crude oil The decline is limited, and the PP valuation is still low. However, the inventory of PP finished products is limited, and the high priced raw materials are resisted. The L-PP price difference falls back at a high level, and PP is held in a light warehouse with multiple orders in the early stage.
[Current market]
Futures:
The reduction of PP2409 contract operated in shock, with the lowest price of 7555 yuan/ton and the highest price of 7606 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 7564 yuan/ton, up 0.21% below the 20 day moving average. Positions decreased by 43 to 434210.
On hand:
The prices of PP spot varieties are mostly stable. 7500-7700 yuan/ton for wire drawing and 7850-8000 yuan/ton for copolymerization.
Fundamental Tracking
On the basic level, the supply side, Dongming Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical Second Line and other units were shut down for maintenance, and the operating rate of PP enterprises dropped by 4% to about 80% compared with last week, 2% lower than the same period last year, and the operating rate of PP fell again to a low level.
In terms of demand, by the week of May 10, the downstream operating rate of PP had slightly decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 51.56% compared with that before the May Day holiday, which was equivalent to the level in the middle of January, and the plastic weaving orders had slightly decreased.
During the May Day holiday, Sinopec accumulated 210000 tons to 930000 tons of inventory, 50000 tons higher than the same period last year. The amount of accumulated inventory was basically the same as that in the past two years, which was in line with expectations. On Tuesday, the early inventory of Sinopec increased by 5000 tons to 890000 tons month on month, 45000 tons higher than the same period last year. Under the demand for downstream replenishment after the holiday, the first week of petrochemical destocking after the holiday was OK, but this week's destocking was slow, and attention was paid to the post holiday destocking.
Crude oil at the feedstock end: Brent crude oil 07 contract rose to $83/barrel, and China's propylene CIF price remained unchanged at $850/ton month on month.
Safe, fast and guaranteed futures account opening on Sina cooperation platform
Sina statement: This message is reproduced from Sina's cooperative media. The purpose of posting this article on Sina.com is to convey more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm its description. The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP
