Viewpoint: macro sentiment weakened again due to the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and the EU imposed tariffs on China's electric vehicles to suppress demand expectations; On the supply side, domestic bauxite supply is still tight, stimulating some provinces to accelerate the exploration and development of new bauxite mines; On the demand side, PV installed capacity increased by 14GW in April 2024, a negative increase of - 2% year-on-year; The increase in the sales of domestic new energy vehicles failed to bring about a rebound in the market. The fall in aluminum prices this week failed to attract active downstream procurement. Long funds in the market continued to reduce their positions, and the next action could not be reduced. The market was weak in the future 20000-21500. Pay attention to the support of the 20000-20500 intensive trading area.
On June 14, the aluminum inventory of the previous stock exchange increased by 11426 tons to 160165 tons; LME aluminum inventory decreased by 6500 tons to 1079050 tons. Changjiang Non ferrous spot A00 aluminum quotation 20560, down 90, discount Shanghai Aluminum 07 Contract 20. This week, the spot price of A00 aluminum of Changjiang Nonferrous Metals dropped 610 from last Friday, with an amplitude of 250 in four trading days this week. The inventory of the previous period increased by 11604 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 24450 tons.
Technical side: 07 contract jumped high after 20730 today and continued to decline to 20545 at the lowest and closed at 20565. 7264 positions were significantly reduced and the volume of transactions was reduced; This week's jump low opened at 21020 and continued to fall back, closing at 20565, breaking the 10 week moving average, and closing at 34980 with a significant reduction in positions. The volume of transactions shrunk, the MACD red column became shorter, and the weakness remained unchanged, but the momentum was weakened. Pay attention to the support of 20000-20500 in the dense trading area ahead.
Weighted contracts continued to fall after jumping high and opening at 20780. They closed at 20617, which was below the 10 day moving average. They closed at 8311, which was slightly smaller. The MACD green column grew longer, and the downward trend remained unchanged, but the momentum weakened, and the next support was 2050; This week, the jump opened low at 21104 and continued to fall. It closed at 20617 and cut 34501 positions significantly. The transaction volume was reduced. The MACD red column was shorter, the weak position was not corrected, and the capacity was reduced. The space below is 20000-20500.
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