Changjiang Small Metal Network (www.ccmn. cn/xiaojinshu): May 17, Changjiang Integrated Battery Level Lithium carbonate 99.5% of the quoted price is 98000-11000 yuan/ton, and the average price is 104500 yuan/ton, which is the same as the last trading day; 99.2% of industrial lithium carbonate quoted 97500-108000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 102750 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous trading day. This week, 99.5% of Yangtze River integrated battery grade lithium carbonate reported a weekly average price of 105650 yuan/ton, down 3000 yuan; The average weekly price of 99.2% industrial lithium carbonate was 104600 yuan/ton, down 4050 yuan.
The price of lithium carbonate fell this week (5.13-5.17), and the overall market situation was weak. The market's sentiment towards the new energy sector fell back, and the increase in downstream production scheduling significantly narrowed. In addition, most enterprises' raw material inventory was high, and most of them were long-term orders. Under the effect of the sentiment of "buying up, not buying down", spot bulk orders also reduced their purchase, and the enthusiasm for market entry inquiry weakened, and the transaction atmosphere turned cold.
The disturbance weakens, the increment releases, the supply pressure rises again
The overhaul of major factories in Qinghai and other regions in China has basically ended, and the salt lake has entered the summer peak production season. Under the background of increasingly mature technology, resource development has been accelerated, and the output is expected to increase gradually. The impact of environmental protection inspection in Jiangxi has weakened, and most manufacturers have resumed production. The output has increased compared with that in April. At the same time, the source of imported goods has increased, and port inventory has gradually flowed into the spot market, further contributing to the pressure of oversupply. However, due to certain time cycle of procurement and transportation, spot circulation is still relatively scarce.
Although the policy will regulate the enterprises whose capacity utilization rate is lower than 50%, the current low utilization rate mainly occurs at the mica end, and the mica production process is mostly large salt enterprises, so the policy has limited impact on the supply disturbance. Recently, the Yichun Municipal Government issued the Notice on Further Strengthening the Guidance on the Utilization and Disposal of Lithium Slag in the City, which is expected to increase the cost of lithium mica manufacturers, but this policy mainly affects the date after September 1, 2025, and the previous date will not be affected.
With the introduction of the new energy vehicle policy related to "trade in the old for the new" in various regions, the market confidence in future demand has improved. Many enterprises in the lithium battery industry have increased their investment and announced the production expansion plan again. At present, manufacturers' quotations are strongly guided by market sentiment. Some smelters sign long orders for lithium battery enterprises, and supply to traders is restricted to prevent price hikes.
According to the latest data, the output of domestic lithium carbonate in April 2024 is about 52800 tons, an increase of 24% month on month and 80% year on year. In the first four months of this year, the cumulative output of domestic lithium carbonate reached 169700 tons, up 35% year on year. According to Chilean customs data, Chile exported about 22900 tons of lithium carbonate to China in April, an increase of 42.27% month on month and 162.25% year on year.
The implementation effect of the policy of slowing demand growth needs to be verified
At the end of April, seven departments jointly issued the Detailed Rules for the Implementation of the Car Trade in Subsidy, which defined the scope and standard of the car trade in subsidy. The 2024 Beijing International Auto Show, as well as the cooperation of manufacturers and dealers in the promotion, showed that consumers are still enthusiastic about new energy vehicles. However, due to the increasing number of models and the serious involvement of car companies, As a result, consumers suffered from difficult choices. On the contrary, the sales volume in April was lower than that in March.
According to the data of China Automobile Association, in April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 870000 and 850000, up 35.9% and 33.5% year on year, respectively, and the market share reached 36%. From January to April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 2.985 million and 2.94 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 30.3% and 32.3%, and the market share reached 32.4%.
However, many promotion policies such as "old for new" have been implemented in many places, and the market expects that new energy vehicles will grow in May. According to the latest data from the Passenger Car Association, 241000 new energy vehicles were sold in the retail market from May 1 to 12, an increase of 31% year-on-year and 10% year-on-year.
On May 14, the Office of the United States Trade Representative officially released the results of the four-year review of the 301 tariff on China. The tariff on China's electric vehicles will be increased from the current 25% to 100%, and the tariff rate on lithium batteries for electric vehicles will be increased from 7.5% to 25%. This news directly triggered the market's concern about short-term demand and had a certain impact on the lithium carbonate spot market.
Due to the increase of the proportion of customer supply, the decline of new energy vehicle retail data on a month on month basis, and the slowing down of production scheduling process of battery plants and cathode material plants, some manufacturers are less willing to purchase and less motivated to enter the market. Most of them are long-term cooperative orders. The overall stocking days of downstream enterprises have been extended compared with the previous period. The influence of the rising sentiment of traders and the attitude of lithium salt manufacturers to be reluctant to sell has led to a slight panic in the downstream. A small number of customers have increased their purchasing enthusiasm, but the actual transaction is more cautious. The spot market is still dominated by retail investors.
On the whole, the supply side tends to be loose, warehouse receipt inventory and social inventory show an increasing trend, and the downstream demand slows down in the end of the "gold, three silver and four" consumption peak season. However, encouraged by the "old for new" policy, the terminal market is expected to be boosted, spot purchase is expected to pick up again, and the cost side still has support, so the downward space of lithium carbonate price is limited, It is expected that the temperature will return next week. Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network Tel: 0592-5668838
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