Source: SDIC Andersen Futures Research Institute
1、 Deviation of short-term spot trend
After the May Day holiday, the secondary fattening groups continued to enter the field to supplement the fence and the breeding end was reluctant to sell the fence, Pig Spot prices continued to rise. Recently, the spot price of live pigs has accelerated to rise. From May 17 last Friday to May 24 this Friday, the average selling price of live pigs rose from 15.43 yuan/kg to 16.71 yuan/kg, up 1.28 yuan/kg, or 8.3%. From the perspective of northeast China, the price of Heijiliao pig rose 0.65 yuan/kg yesterday, and rose 0.3~0.55 yuan/kg today, which is significantly driven by emotions. On the other hand, the performance of the futures end is relatively calm. Recently, the pig futures price has shown a continuous high shock, and has not followed the spot market out of the fast upward market.
Data source: Yongyi Consulting 2、 In the context of capacity reduction, secondary fattening affects the supply rhythm
Due to the continuous reduction of productive capacity of sows in the previous year and the impact of pig epidemics in the fourth quarter, the market expects a decrease in pig supply this year, and is optimistic about pig prices. Since the Spring Festival this year, the secondary fattening supplement and marketing have continuously affected the rhythm of market supply, thus affecting the spot price of live pigs. From the statistics of Yongyi, the magnitude of the secondary fattening supplement increased again after the May Day holiday, accelerating the recent upward trend of pig prices.
Considering the rapid pull of secondary fattening and reluctance to sell sentiment on pig prices, the supply side sentiment has a greater impact. The consumer side is still in the off-season, and the real demand has not improved. We believe that once the reluctance to sell secondary fattening sentiment on the breeding side slows down, the possibility of pig price correction is large, and the futures price is now close to the peak.
Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs
Data source: Yongyi Consulting 3、 The estimated aquaculture profit based on the panel valuation is good, and the aquaculture enterprises can participate in selling hedging at high prices
Since September in the second half of 2023, Soybean meal 、 Corn The spot price of such varieties has declined significantly, which has promoted the decline of pig breeding costs. According to the announcement of the listed company, the total pig breeding cost of the breeding enterprise may be about 15 yuan/kg at present, including 14.8 yuan/kg for the industry leader Muyuan Shares in April and 14.4 yuan/kg for Wen's Shares in April.
According to the statistics of Yongyi Consulting, the cost of self breeding and self rearing of weaned piglets to the standard pigs was 13.6~13.7 yuan/kg, and the cost of fattening of purchased piglets to the standard pigs was 16 yuan/kg, which corresponds to the time point of listing at the end of October and the beginning of November. For the standard pigs sold at the end of August and the beginning of September, the full cost of self breeding and self raising for sale is 13.7~13.8 yuan/kg, and the full cost of purchased piglets is 15.48 yuan/kg. According to this cost calculation, the current valuation of the panel September contract and November contract is around 18.2 and 18.6 yuan/kg, and the profits of the hedged pig breeding are high, so the breeding enterprises can participate in selling the hedged pig at every high price. Historically, the average profit of pig breeding industry from 2010 to 2018 was 217 yuan/head before the outbreak of plague, and the current panel hedging profit is higher than that level.
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