Zero mentality
Remember to be patient in life adversity. When life is good, remember to converge. Remember to watch and talk when you are happy in life. When you are frustrated in life, remember to follow your fate. When you are in a bad mood, you should cultivate yourself. When you are happy, you need to dive.
Know, try, wrong, think, understand; Try again, make mistakes again, think again, get again, understand again; Try again, make mistakes again, and understand again. It seems that there are countless investment opportunities in one's life, but there are few opportunities that are really worth taking. This is not just to understand your ability circle and market. The most difficult thing is that you are willing to miss it? Will you compromise and beg for the second time because the opportunity has not appeared?
Aftermarket perspective
The oil price fell back in the shock on Monday. It is worth mentioning that the monthly difference structure has weakened slightly during the rebound of oil price in the past few days, which shows that the tight supply situation is easing. The typical reaction is that after the news that Russia will lift the gasoline export ban came out on Monday afternoon, the oil price fell back from the daily high, From the reaction of oil price to the news, it can be seen that investors are still very cautious in oil price assessment at the present stage, and their confidence is still insufficient. The political situation of the core oil producing countries in the Middle East, such as Iran's president's accidental death due to the crash and the Saudi king's health problems, has attracted market attention + The ministerial meeting is only one week long, facing many uncertainties, investors should observe carefully crude oil Changes in the market.
Domestic futures market Monday silver Copper has surged to new highs since its listing, and the enthusiasm of the market is very high, which means that extreme fluctuations are easy to occur, and the risk of the commodity market is increasing. Although the oil price performance is relatively calm, the sentiment of the commodity market is easy to cause systematic risks, and will also affect the volatility of oil prices, It is suggested that investors should pay attention to strengthening risk control awareness in the process of participation. At the current important time window, the oil price is very likely to fluctuate significantly. Pay attention to the rhythm and participate cautiously.
Daily news
【 one 】 WTI Main crude oil futures closed lower zero point two eight USD, decline 0.35%， newspaper seventy-nine point three dollar / Barrel; Brent main crude oil futures closed lower zero point two seven USD, decline 0.32% , reported eighty-three point seven one dollar / Barrel; INE Crude oil futures closed higher 0.21% , reported six hundred and nineteen point six Yuan.
【 two 】Increase of USD index 0.12%， newspaper one hundred and four point six two ； HKEx USD/RMB increase 0.17%， newspaper seven point two two four five ； Decline of US 10-year treasury bonds 0.13%， newspaper one hundred and nine point zero two ； The decline of Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.49%， newspaper thirty-nine thousand eight hundred and six point seven seven 。
Recent news
【 one 】Russian media: Russia will lift gasoline export ban
The Russian government has finally decided to suspend the temporary ban on gasoline exports due to the sufficient supply of the market, according to the report of the Russian Business News Agency, citing people familiar with the matter on Monday. It added that the Ministry of Energy had confirmed the news. Russia from three month one The export of gasoline will be prohibited from six But the economic union led by Moscow and some countries that have signed direct intergovernmental agreements on fuel supply with Russia are not restricted. The Ministry of Energy and Resources said, "Due to the saturation of the domestic market and the completion of the unscheduled maintenance of the refinery three month one The temporary ban on the export of gasoline, which came into effect on July 1, will be lifted. " RBC A source was quoted as saying that the decision to suspend the ban would be announced at the beginning of this week, but the source did not specify the time frame of the new decision. According to the Russian Ministry of Energy, refineries and oil depots have established inventories of motor gasoline, which can fully meet the needs of the domestic market. by five month fifteen Daily, gasoline inventory is two hundred and ten 10000 tons, diesel fuel inventory is three hundred and forty 10000 tons.
【 two 】Agency: The political situation of the two major oil producing countries is unclear, and oil prices are driven to rise
Iranian media reported that the Iranian President and Foreign Minister were killed in a helicopter accident; Earlier today, the Saudi Crown Prince cancelled his visit to Japan on the grounds of health problems with the king. IGmarkets analyst Tony Sycamore "If the Saudi King's health is not good, the uncertainty that has enveloped the energy market this morning will increase after the news of the Iranian President is heard," he added, WTI Crude oil price is breaking through two hundred Daily moving average eighty point zero two After the US dollar, it may further rebound to eighty-three point five zero USD. Head of International Commodity Strategy, Netherlands Warren Patterson It is believed that the market seems increasingly insensitive to geopolitical developments, which may be due to OPEC's large amount of idle capacity.
【 three 】Analysts and traders said that the spot crude oil market weakened because the demand was less than expected when the supply was sufficient.
European demand seems particularly sluggish. In recent weeks, Brent crude oil （Brent crude） The key crude oil grade of has weakened, and the discount to mature Brent crude oil has reached the highest level in a year.
Summer travel is about to begin, and demand in the United States seems to be weakening. Although the planned maintenance season has ended, refinery utilization has not rebounded.
So far this year, the demand in many markets seems to be lower than expected, which has depressed the spot price of crude oil. According to the analysts interviewed, if demand does not rebound soon, this may bring pressure to the bill market, and oil futures prices may further decline.
The weakness of physical demand and oil price may make OPEC + The Group has sufficient reasons to extend the current production reduction plan to the second half of this year. OPEC + Will be on six month one A meeting will be held on July to decide whether to extend or cancel the contract two hundred and twenty 10000 barrels / The production reduction agreement of.
The above chart data source is Wenhua Finance IFIND Haitong Futures Investment Consulting Department
The content was originally created by Haitong Futures Energy R&D Center
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