Source: China Grain Network
During the May Day holiday, torrential rains in southern Brazil triggered floods, seriously affecting Rio Grande do Sul soybean The harvest triggered the market's bullish enthusiasm, and the main contract of CBOT soybeans rose above 1250 cents/bushel. As Brazil's weather premium was digested by the intraday trading, the bulls left the market before the release of the USDA's supply and demand report in May, and the futures price of the main CBOT soybean contract fell back to around 1200 cents/bushel. Later, although the data in the USDA's supply and demand report in May was somewhat empty, the tariff rumors stimulated the US market Soybean oil US soybean futures prices are still strong and volatile, supported by rising futures prices and weather speculation.
Following the trend of CBOT soybeans, since May Soybean meal The operating center of gravity of the main contract has risen significantly, and the overall situation is that the center of gravity of the main contract will rise sharply at first, and then fall slightly to a strong oscillation near 3550 yuan/ton. As the spot stock of soybean meal continues to rise and the fundamentals are short, the basis is more relatively weak, showing a small weak trend. As of May 17, the average price of 43% of domestic protein soybean meal was about 3450 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan/ton from the end of April. The contract basis in North China was - 110 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the end of April. The contract basis in Guangdong was - 140 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the end of April.
The arrival of imported soybeans in Hong Kong increased, and the stocks of soybeans and soybean meal in oil plants rose
Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that in April 2024, domestic soybean imports will reach 8.57 million tons, an increase of 54.69% over the same period last month and 18.04% over the same period last year. From January to April 2024, the cumulative import volume will be 27.15 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.34%. The arrival of domestic imported soybeans in May is expected to be about 10 million tons, and that in June is about 11 million tons. With the increase in the arrival of imported soybeans in Hong Kong, the shortage of soybean stocks in the oil factory eased, and the stocks continued to rise to a level higher than that of the same period in the previous two years. Therefore, the operating rate of the oil factory increased as a whole. By the 19th week, the operating rate of domestic oil plants had risen to above 50%.
Due to the rise of breeding profitability, the operating range of soybean meal has also moved down from above 4000 yuan/ton, stimulating the rise of soybean meal consumption demand, and the proportion of soybean meal added in the country has increased. Therefore, the soybean meal delivery volume of the oil factory increased, and the turnover was significantly higher than that in January and February, especially the contract turnover of the oil factory in the far month increased significantly. However, with the rapid recovery of the operating rate of the oil factory, the soybean meal inventory of the oil factory has continued to increase since April, which is significantly higher than the level of the same period last year. In May and June, domestic soybean imports continued to increase in Hong Kong. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be good, and the soybean meal of oil plants is expected to continue to accumulate.
Brazil's soybean premium price is firm, and the cost of domestic soybean imports is high
Although the future price of US soybeans fell in April, domestic oil factories were active in buying ships. The Brazilian real weakened. The local soybean crushing profit in Brazil was considerable, which supported the CNF premium quotation of Brazilian soybeans. In May, southern Brazil was hit by floods, StoneX estimates that Brazil's soybean output will be reduced to 147.8 million tons in 2024 from 150.8 million tons previously, superimposed on the impact of floods on harvesting, storage and port logistics. At the same time, domestic ship buying is active, and Brazil's soybean export premium and discount quotation will get new support and continue to remain strong, thus bringing support to domestic soybean import costs and soybean meal spot basis. As of May 17, Brazilian soybeans were shipped in June at a CNF discount of 153 cents/pu, up 13 cents/pu from the end of April. The dutiable price of domestic imports of Brazilian soybeans delivered in June was 4075 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the end of April.
Although the loss of Brazil's soybean production caused by the flood will not change the pattern of loose international soybean supply and demand, the rainstorm damage to infrastructure has led to a decline in the soybean export capacity of Rio Grande do Sul, which may affect the subsequent pace of domestic soybean imports to Hong Kong, thus boosting the domestic soybean meal spot and basis, which needs close attention.
There are enough hype topics, and the US bean and soybean meal plates will be shaken slightly, waiting for the opportunity
From the perspective of the current market environment, on May 9, in order to oppose the government's new economic policy, many industries in Argentina held a 24-hour national strike, and the ports and soybean mills in the surrounding areas of Rosario's main hub were suspended. There is still great uncertainty about whether the strike will be repeated in the future. In terms of planting and production, soybean harvesting in Brazil and Argentina was delayed due to heavy rainfall. As of May 12, the soybean harvest in Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil was only 79%, down from 86% in the same period last year. As of May 8, Argentina's soybean harvest was 47.8%, 13% lower than the average in the same period of five years. As of May 12, the sowing progress of American beans was 35%, lower than the 39% expected by the market, 45% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 34%. Rainy weather has slowed down the pace of spring sowing in the United States, but it has not changed the overall tone of the progress of American soybean planting. If there is no further change, it will mainly support the United States, and it is difficult to bring new growth.
Although the flood benefit in southern Brazil has been basically fully traded by the US market, even if the final loss of 2 - 3 million tons of output expected by the market is difficult to bring a new lift to the US soybean market. However, considering that drought threatens Russia's wheat production, Sino US trade relations are tense, the international geopolitical situation is volatile, the floods in southern Brazil, the strike in Argentina, US soybeans are in a sensitive period of weather speculation and many other topics, the overall market environment is too much, and it is very easy for new news to bring up the market, it is expected that the short-term CBOT soybeans and domestic soybean meal will operate in a narrow range and strong, Wait for a new message to appear.
Safe, fast and guaranteed futures account opening on Sina cooperation platform
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP
Editor in charge: Zhao Siyuan
