Source: GF Futures Research
Yu Peiyun Z00195196
Market Guide: Nickel rose more than 3% in mid session today.
Drive 1: The expectation of overseas interest rate cut is rekindled, and good news about domestic real estate spreads frequently. The macro sentiment is warmer, and the sector is rising
Overseas, the US CPI and core CPI in April increased by 3.4% and 3.6% respectively year on year, the lowest growth rate in three years. The US retail sales in April and the NAHB real estate index in May weakened. The pricing of swap contracts showed that the probability of interest rate reduction expected by traders in September rose to more than 80%, the US dollar index fell, and precious metals and nonferrous metals rose. On the domestic side, new policies have been introduced in Beijing, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and other places in China, which are expected to recover. In addition, local geopolitical conflicts are frequent, so it is necessary to consider the impact of inflation expectations caused by events on bulk commodities, as well as the incremental demand of strategic materials for industrial metals. Leading sheep "Doctor Copper" made a strong breakthrough, COMEX copper warehouse squeeze event fermented, and varieties in the nonferrous plate were mostly boosted by linkage.
Drive 2: tight balance among ferronickel, intermediate products and nickel sulfate, slow approval process of Indonesian nickel ore, and ore price driving up the cost of nickel products
Fundamentally, Indonesia's nickel mines account for more than half of the world's total. The RKAB approval process for Indonesia's nickel mines is slow, and the mineral resources approval of some factories is still not passed. The domestic trade price of nickel mines is strong and stable. In the Philippines, although the rainy season in the main mining area ended and the number of nickel ore ships arriving at the port increased, the sea freight was high and the quotation of high-grade nickel ore still rose.
From the perspective of line breakdown: (1) The "refined nickel alloy/electroplating" line has increased both supply and demand, and the downstream purchase is on the low side, but not on the high side. The Indonesian integration cost gives the following reference around 120000 yuan, so it is not advisable to lower the price of resources. The marginal concern is the progress of new capacity launch. LME nickel investment fund position turned to net long position. (2) In the line of "MHP - nickel sulfate - ternary battery", some traders released MHP that arrived in Hong Kong in July, and the coefficient was somewhat loose compared with that before; In May, the three-way production scheduling declined. The current price is rising along with nickel products. Later, the price of nickel sulfate may become stable. (3) "Ferronickel - stainless steel ”Line, nickel ore rose, ferronickel market was bullish, and the spot atmosphere improved. "Domestic efforts to promote the construction of all additional treasury bond projects by the end of June" improved demand expectations, but inventory and warehouse receipts were still high, steel prices fluctuated, steel mills recovered profits, and production resumed in May.
In summary, nickel ore resources are temporarily tight, ferronickel, nickel intermediate products and nickel sulfate are in tight balance, and only pure nickel is in trend accumulation. There is a story about raw materials and demand, and the rising cost leads to the upward shift of the shock center of gravity.
Drive 3: New Caledonia situation and Indonesia volcano news disturbance boost sentiment, with limited real impact temporarily
On the news side, (1) New Caledonia broke out the most serious riots in more than 30 years, and Prime Minister Atal announced the implementation of a curfew and the prohibition of TikTok. The output of Xinka nickel mine accounts for about 6% of the world's total. It mainly exports 1.3-1.8% nickel ore and water quenched nickel. The commencement rate of wet process projects is low, and the actual impact is limited at present. (2) The warning level of Ibu volcano in Indonesia has been raised to the highest level, which is located in Hamahara Island, Maluku Province, Indonesia. Nickel ore in Indonesia is relatively concentrated, mainly in Sulawesi Island and nearby islands. Locals commonly call it Big K Island and Small K Island. The former accounts for 70-80% of the total nickel resources in Indonesia, while the latter accounts for 20-30%. According to SMM, the emergency has no impact on the normal production of the mine in the small island of K at present, and may have some impact on aircraft transportation later.
Future prospects:
On the whole, the sentiment of nonferrous metal plate is warmer and the nickel ore is tighter to support the plate shock center of gravity to move up, the impact of the situation in New Caledonia and the volcanic eruption in Indonesia is temporarily limited, and the trend accumulation pattern of pure nickel is still suppressed. Shanghai Nickel The market first pays attention to the 150000 barrier, and if an effective breakthrough is formed, the market will continue to be bullish. The main focus of the future market is still on the macro logic of the market and the approval process of Indonesia's nickel mine.
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