Source: Jinqiao Textile Net
According to Shihezi, Urumqi, Aksu and other places cotton According to the feedback from the regulatory repository, the railway freight coefficient has been significantly reduced since mid April Zheng Mian The impact of the CF2405 contract entering the delivery month, the railway traffic volume of cotton has continued to rise in the past half month, gradually exceeding the highway traffic volume; The road traffic volume has dropped sharply in succession (also related to the change of warehouse planning in Shihezi area and the withdrawal of several original railway special lines). According to statistics, 405800 tons of Xinjiang cotton were transferred to the mainland in March. In April, various institutions and departments predicted that the cotton transferred to the mainland was about 400000 tons, basically the same as that in March. Due to the "reduction of roads and increase of railways" in transportation, the total amount has not changed much.
As Xinjiang cotton continues to move to consumption areas in the mainland in 2023/24, some cotton enterprises and textile mills in Xinjiang believe that the supply of cotton in the mainland is from cotton imports/ Cotton yarn The explosive growth of imports and the current commercial cotton inventory of nearly 1 million tons will be very loose. However, due to the massive transfer of cotton stocks in Xinjiang, it is likely that the cotton supply will be tight after August 2024, and even the phenomenon of cotton "support" will have to be recalled from the mainland.
The author judges that the possibility of "tight domestic cotton market and loose domestic cotton market" in the third quarter is very small. On the one hand, as of the end of April, it is estimated that the commercial inventory of cotton in Xinjiang is about 2.9 million tons (including the warehouse receipt for delivery of cotton in Xinjiang). Even if the amount of cotton transferred to the mainland from May to September is calculated as 1.5 million tons (300000 tons per month on average, significantly higher than the same period last year), There are still 1.3 million tons of cotton available for consumption by cotton enterprises in Xinjiang. According to the data released by relevant departments, by the end of 2023, Xinjiang has about 22 million spinning spindles, and the conversion rate of cotton output in Xinjiang is about 40%, that is, the average monthly cotton consumption is less than 200000 tons (some textile enterprises expand the production of high count yarn, blended yarn, and differentiated yarn this year, which is expected to be less than 200000 tons). Therefore, the total cotton consumption in May September may be less than 1 million tons, and the supply will still exceed the demand; On the other hand, there is a certain amount of cotton bonded in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and other places in Xinjiang port. Although the cotton quality index is general, it can effectively supplement the supply of low index and low spinnability cotton in Xinjiang. If the sliding tariff cotton import quota is increased in 2024, Xinjiang cotton enterprises are expected to increase their procurement of cotton from Central Asia and the countries along the Belt and Road.
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