The general rise of black futures is coming, and the favorable policies of real estate ignite bulls

The general rise of black futures is coming, and the favorable policies of real estate ignite bulls
09:24, May 17, 2024 Market information

   Associated Press, May 17 (Editor Chen Kandi) At the close of this Thursday afternoon, domestic futures black series commodities rose significantly by more than 2%. Influenced by the favorable real estate situation, bulls swept away the bad clouds for a while. Yesterday night, the market continued to be long. As of this morning, Screw thread steel Up 1.28% Hot coil Up 1.02% iron ore Shizhang 1.20% coke Up 2.55% coking coal Up 2.46%

On the 15th, Hangzhou Lin'an District Housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau issued the Announcement on the Collection of Purchasing Commercial Houses as Public Rental Housing Suppliers, which will purchase a batch of commercial houses as public rental housing.

For a while, the market discussed in succession, and this may lay the foundation for the introduction of "old for new" and other stock asset revitalization policies.

The Executive Deputy Chief High School Student of the East China Region of the China Index Research Institute told the media that over the past period, Zhengzhou, Changsha, Nanjing and other core cities have introduced relevant policies to support the "old for new" housing to digest the stock of real estate. The content of this promotion in Lin'an District of Hangzhou is on the one hand a beneficial attempt to revitalize the stock and reduce the stock, on the other hand, it is also a support for the supply of government public rental housing.

At the same time, according to the Information Office of the State Council, at 4:00 p.m. on May 17, the heads of the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development and other departments will hold a regular briefing on the policies of the State Council to introduce relevant information on the implementation of supporting policies for housing guarantee and delivery. The Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development, the General Administration of Financial Supervision, state-owned banks and other ministries and institutions have respectively transferred key personnel in their own real estate field and established joint working groups; The scope of "guaranteed delivery building" assistance may be further expanded, and the purchase of stock housing is under discussion.

In addition, today is also the first day of issuance of 30-year ultra long term special treasury bonds.

   Short term prices may end the correction and enter the rising range

As for the big rise of the black sector, the institutions also agreed that it was related to the favorable real estate situation and macro policies.

Chen Weichang, the person in charge of black goods of Zhonghui Futures, told the media that on May 14, Lin'an District, Hangzhou, issued the Announcement on the Collection of Purchasing Commercial Housing as a Supplier of Public Rental Housing; On May 16, Dali, Yunnan, issued the Implementation Opinions on Further Promoting the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Industry (Trial), proposing to encourage the purchase of stock houses as security houses or talent houses. Previously, the discussion on the local government's next purchase of stock housing to resolve the current industry dilemma continued for some time, and the introduction of the above local policies seems to confirm that this idea is gradually landing into reality.

As the steel plant has maintained a low production level, the inventory of construction steel is not high, even at a low level compared with previous years. In the later period, we need to pay close attention to the promotion scope and progress of real estate and infrastructure policies, which may become one of the main transaction logic of black goods in the future. If the policy can be promoted quickly, it will undoubtedly form a strong driving force for the demand for steel, especially deformed steel bars, and will also form an important support for the black plate, Chen Weichang said.

According to Mysteel's data, on May 16, the national construction steel turnover (237 samples) totaled 169667 tons, an increase of 56.65% month on day and 32.95% month on week. In terms of the relative index of turnover, 72.3 in China increased by 26.2, 103.9 in East China increased by 44.2, 48.1 in the South increased by 13.9, and 58.6 in the North increased by 15.5.

My steel website pointed out that at present, the fundamentals of construction steel continue to improve, consumption continues to pick up, production continues to pick up, driven by improved profits, inventory speed accelerates year on year, and the stock removal slope performance is good, driving the market pessimistic expectations.

On the other hand, with the acceleration of the issuance of special bonds in the second quarter, the terminal funds have gradually improved. In addition to the frequent emergence of recent macro policies, there are good incentives for the property market, chemical bonds, and infrastructure construction. The short-term price may end the callback and enter the rising range.

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Editor in charge: Zhang Jingdi

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