Contributed by agricultural products collection and purchase website
At the beginning of 2024, on the eve of the Spring Festival, the cotton textile downstream ushered in a long missed replenishment cycle, especially reflected in the replenishment of the raw material end of the fabric factory. The industry is optimistic about the expectations of "gold, silver and four". However, after the Spring Festival, orders from April to April were cold, and the consumption of Xinjiang cotton was significantly weaker than that of the same period last year. Here we will explore several alternative ways of Xinjiang cotton consumption.
1. Downstream export of cotton spinning decreased
From January to March 2024, China's overall cotton textile export level confirmed overseas demand for China's sluggish replenishment. From January to March, the overall downstream export volume of cotton textile fell by 5.6% year on year.
In terms of the proportion of exports, the proportion of cotton textile exports to the United States, the European Union, Japan and South Korea all declined, and the proportion of exports to ASEAN only increased. Specifically, the decline in the number of cotton textiles exported to the United States, Japan and South Korea is the most obvious. In terms of the United States, from January to March 2024, the number of textile imports from China fell by 11.15% year on year; For Japan and South Korea, the number of textiles imported from China from January to March 2024 dropped by 25.97% year on year. It is analyzed that exports to Japan and South Korea fell sharply or were related to the exchange rate. The depreciation of yen against RMB was not conducive to Japan's imports.
The number of cotton textiles exported to EU and ASEAN has increased steadily, especially ASEAN. From January to March, ASEAN's textile imports from China rose 13.7% year on year; For the EU, the number of textiles imported from China from January to March 2024 increased by 5.3% year on year.
The demand for replenishment opened overseas has not been released to China and transferred to Southeast Asia. Since the continuous large-scale replenishment from January to September 2022, the United States has been in the process of slow destocking. As of March, the current pace of overseas destocking has slowed down, and even since February, there have been signs of replenishment. On the contrary, according to the export data of Southeast Asia, the number and proportion of China's cotton textile exports to Southeast Asia have increased significantly, including entrepot demand.
From the perspective of cotton textile downstream exports, we can infer from the perspective of cotton textile export quantity that the first quarter of 2024 cotton Consumption decreased by about 80000 tons, of course, this caliber includes both Xinjiang cotton and imported cotton.
2. The import window opens, leading to the substitution of imported cotton
The domestic import window was opened, and the imported cotton showed a large amount of cost performance. According to the domestic cotton price index, the import profit within the quota is 1300 yuan/ton, and the import profit under sliding allowance tax is 1100 yuan/ton.
From January to March, the domestic cotton import volume reached 1.05 million tons in total, of course, some of which also entered the national storage, and the rest of the consumption has basically become the replacement of Xinjiang cotton. From this point of view, contrary to the scenario at the beginning of 2023, the consumption rate of Xinjiang cotton in 2023 is faster than expected, resulting in low commercial inventory. The main reason is that Xinjiang cotton was more cost-effective at that time, so it replaced imported cotton with about 500000 tons.
At present, the port inventory has also reached a historical high of 582000 tons. The unavailability of port inventory is mainly due to the shortage of quota. The current quota price is 1150 yuan/ton. The market has been waiting for the issuance of sliding allowance tax quota for the new year. Once the quota exceeds the market expectation, imported cotton will continue to flow into China, which will probably lead to the narrowing of the difference between internal and external prices
From the perspective of direct substitution of imported cotton, we calculated that the direct substitution of this part reached about 380000 tons by using the average proportion of imported cotton in industrial inventory from January to March from the perspective of excluding the part entering the national reserve from the consumption scope. The proportion of imported cotton in industrial inventory increased by about 10 percentage points year on year, which has also been further verified.
3. Import Cotton yarn Become a more convenient alternative
In terms of cotton yarn import, 424700 tons were imported from January to March, an increase of 140000 tons year on year. Although the import window of imported yarn was closed from the end of February to March, the overall data from January to March did not affect the enthusiasm of the downstream to directly use imported cotton yarn as a substitute. This is mainly because for export orders, if imported cotton yarn is directly used, many procedures can be reduced in the traceability link, so that export orders can be completed more conveniently and safely.
The imported low count yarn will be more attractive to traders and downstream companies when there is import profit. From the perspective of import caliber on a year-on-year basis, the direct substitution of this part for Xinjiang cotton is about 155500 tons.
4. Fiber substitution attracts attention
In the process of downstream research in Guangdong, Lesser's alternative discussion has attracted wide attention. The proportion of materials used by Lesser is increasing. In the first quarter of 2024, the domestic Lyocell production capacity will reach 660000 tons, which is three times more than that in 2021. It is widely used in bedding, and knitting is still being promoted. However, it is still difficult for Lyssell to replace cotton. The cloth is easy to wrinkle and hard after washing. According to the average capacity growth rate and superposition ratio, Lyssell's consumption substitution for cotton from January to March was about 90000 tons.
On the whole, the weak consumption of domestic Xinjiang cotton from January to March 2024 is mainly due to the substitution of imported cotton and imported cotton yarn, which is completely opposite to the scene at the beginning of 2023. In addition, the proportion of China's cotton textile exports to Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea declined, while the proportion of exports to Southeast Asia only increased, and the overall downstream export of cotton textile declined. Fiber substitution such as Lysell has also gradually increased in recent three years. Taking the above factors into consideration, it is estimated that the direct consumption of Xinjiang cotton will decrease by about 600000 tons from January to March. （ Contributed by Agricultural Products Collection and Purchase Website, author: Zijin Tianfeng Futures Wang Qiyao , please indicate the source of the reprint, otherwise, it will be held accountable according to law.)
[It only represents personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. There are risks in the future market and investment should be cautious]
Statement of agricultural products collection and purchase website: This platform publishes this article for the purpose of transmitting more information, does not mean that it agrees with its views or confirms its description. The content of the article is only for reference, does not constitute investment advice, and operates accordingly at its own risk.
Safe, fast and guaranteed futures account opening on Sina cooperation platform
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP
