On May 24, Penghua Fund, Guoshou Security Fund and other institutions issued an announcement to improve the accuracy of the net value of their bond based product shares, all due to the large redemption of their products.
The reporter combed and found that, Since May, more than 20 institutions have issued announcements to improve the accuracy of net value of product shares. For a long time, since this year, there have been nearly 200 bond bases that have issued announcements to improve the accuracy of net worth.
The reason is that some insiders pointed out to reporters that the supply side disturbance has increased recently, and the bond market has increased volatility in the shock. However, since April, allocation forces such as rising wealth management scale and large amount of money of non bank institutions have still formed potential support for the bond market, and attention can be paid to structural allocation opportunities in the callback.
"Redemption tide" reappears
On May 24, Guoshou Security Fund released an announcement that the large redemption of Guoshou Security Margin pure debt semi annual regular open bond initiated securities investment fund occurred on May 23. In order to ensure that the interests of fund holders will not be adversely affected by the decimal point retention accuracy of the net value of shares Industrial Bank The joint stock limited company agreed to keep the precision of the net value of the shares of the fund on May 23 to the eighth decimal place, and rounded to the ninth decimal place.
On the same day, Penghua Fund, Morgan Asset Management and other institutions also issued announcements to improve the accuracy of their product share net value, all due to large redemption. Since May, more than 20 institutions, including Manulife Fund, Hongta Laterite Fund and Rongtong Fund, have issued announcements to improve the accuracy of the net value of the bond base, most of which are bond funds. In terms of product type, medium and long-term pure debt funds account for the majority.
Redemption reasons vary
The industry believes that the large redemption of some debt bases is related to the recent turmoil in the bond market, reflecting the cautious attitude of institutional investors to stop profits in time. On April 23, the Central Bank shouted about the risk of long-term bonds, mentioning that the underlying logic of the decline in the yield of long-term bonds is the lack of "safe assets" in the market. With the issuance of ultra long-term special bonds in the future, the "asset shortage" will ease, and the yield of long-term bonds will also rise.
On April 24, the "bond bull" running all the way suddenly stopped, the yield of inter-bank main interest rate bonds rose sharply, and the treasury bond futures closed down. On the whole, the shock of long-term interest rate debt is more obvious. In terms of debt base, the net value of many debt based products fluctuated, especially many medium - and long-term pure debt funds suffered "heavy losses". Wind data shows that, as of May 24, since the bond market callback on April 24, there are still nearly 900 products that have not "come out of the pit" among the more than 3000 medium - and long-term pure bonds (calculated separately for different shares) in the whole market, and the interval return rate is negative.
Hongyi Yuanyuan Fund also pointed out that, in addition to the impact of factors such as the increase of supply side disturbances such as super long term bad news, the frequent emergence of real estate policies and the recovery of the equity market have also attracted a lot of funds from the bond market to transfer to equity products.
"In addition, at the end of each quarter, many institutional customers will choose to redeem part of the funds in the bond based products at the end of the quarter for the purpose of scale sprint and other purposes because of the demand for liquidity." A person from the market department of a Beijing public offering institution disclosed to the reporter, "If the product institutions account for a relatively high proportion, the redemption behavior of the institutions will cause large fluctuations in net worth."
Some insiders told reporters that if the holder structure of the basic debt body is relatively simple, it is also easy to have large redemption. "If the proportion of institutional holdings of the bond base is very large, and the proportion of individual holdings is very small, or the proportion of individual holdings of the bond base is very large, and the proportion of institutional holdings is very small, then these two more extreme situations are prone to large redemption." The person said, "We believe that a more healthy holding structure is that the proportion of institutional holders and individual holders is relatively balanced."
Ultra long term especially Marginal good bond market of national debt
Speaking of his views on the recent bond market, Chen Yiping, fixed income investment director and director of bond fund department of HFT Fund, said that the current level of risk-free yield basically coincides with the trend of economic fundamentals. "Judging from a series of policies recently issued by the government, relevant departments are working hard to create a stable market environment and try their best to reduce the volatility of the bond market caused by market gaming sentiment." Taking the issuance plan of ultra long term special treasury bonds recently announced by the Ministry of Finance as an example, he said, For the bond market, the implementation of the special national debt issuance plan is conducive to stabilizing the supply expectation of ultra long term interest rate bonds. Considering that the issuance rhythm is relatively gentle, the actual impact on the market may not be too great, and it is only possible to form a certain disturbance to the yield of ultra long term national debt at individual issuance time points.
"Regardless of the monetary policy cycle or the fluctuation of funds, in the context of the switch between old and new drivers, the long-term elasticity of interest rate debt will still be small in 2024 only from the perspective of economic fundamentals." An insider analyzed that for the long-term end of interest rate debt, with the gradual convergence of interest rate level and economic growth, the elasticity of economic fundamentals will be small, The long-term interest rate ceiling is difficult to break, and the quarterly changes in supply and policy provide band trading opportunities.
"Recently, the arrangement for the issuance of ultra long term special treasury bonds was announced. The issuance window lasted for seven months, and the actual issuance rhythm was relatively gentle." Cheng Hao, deputy director of the fixed income department and fund manager of Fidelity Fund, believes that the issuance rhythm of ultra long term special treasury bonds is relatively stable, and marginal good for the bond market.
"For the bond market, the bond yield declined significantly after the issuance plan was issued. The main reason is that the supply shock of bond issuance was less than expected, and the market anxiety has eased. On the whole, we believe that the expectation difference in the rhythm of this special treasury bond issuance plan is marginal good for the bond market, and the expectation for the volatility of medium and long-term treasury bond yields has improved. " Cheng Hao said, "In the short term, when interest rates are approaching or even breaking through the historical bottom, the overall volatility of the bond market is also increasing. Market participants are becoming more sensitive to negative factors, and the sentiment of stopping earnings is easy to be triggered. Investment strategies should be flexible."
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