On September 8, RMB To USD The middle price was 7.2150, down 164 points; The middle price of the previous trading day was 7.1986, the official closing price of the previous trading day was 7.3279, and the closing price of the previous day and night was 7.3297. The offshore RMB fell below 7.36 and depreciated more than 200 points within the day.
The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 93%
CME "Federal Reserve Observation": the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25% - 5.50% in September is 93%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 5.50% - 5.75% is 7%; The probability of keeping interest rate unchanged by November is 48.3, the probability of cumulative interest rate increase of 25 basis points is 48.3%, and the probability of cumulative interest rate increase of 50 basis points is 3.4%.
Federal Reserve Logan: The Federal Reserve may suspend interest rate hikes in September, but there is "still work to do" to reduce inflation
Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Logan said on Thursday that although it is "probably appropriate" not to raise interest rates at the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve, further policy tightening may be needed to reduce the inflation rate to 2% in time. "The nature of forecasting is uncertainty. However, my benchmark estimate is that there is still a lot of work to do," she said. "The price increase in the past few years is unacceptable, and I still don't believe that we have eliminated excessive inflation." "When we meet later this month, it may be appropriate to suspend interest rate hikes again, but the suspension does not mean stopping." She said that the decline in inflation rate is "encouraging", but may not be low enough, especially when the labor market is still strong. In the coming months, further evaluation of the data and prospects may confirm that we need to take more measures to eliminate inflation.
Times observation: a little more confidence and calmly look at the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate
Although the People's Bank of China released the policy signal of maintaining exchange rate stability again last week by lowering the reserve requirement ratio for foreign exchange deposits, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell below 7.32 again, and the offshore RMB exchange rate even exceeded 7.33 in the middle of the day yesterday. However, although the absolute level of the value is at a low level, from the relative level of exchange rate changes, the probability of further weakening of the RMB is not expected to be large. When crossing the cycle trough, the optimist sees the possibility of upward movement in the future, while the pessimist is immersed in the past and the present. The financial market is an effective place for price discovery that is extremely sensitive to the marginal change trend USD Index With the suppression that the RMB/USD exchange rate is expected to remain strong in the short term, it may be difficult for the RMB/USD exchange rate to rebound significantly, and even an intermittent depreciation pulse will reappear at some time points. However, with the hedging of gradual repair of economic fundamentals, we can have more confidence and tolerance in the RMB exchange rate.
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