Our reporter Peng Yang
At the end of April, the central bank's open market operation still maintained a small amount of "drip irrigation". On April 29, the Central Bank launched a RMB 2 billion reverse repurchase operation, and the bid winning interest rate remained unchanged at 1.8%. Industry experts predict that the central bank will continue to carry out flexible and accurate regulation according to the supply and demand of liquidity and changes in market interest rates to ensure reasonable and sufficient market liquidity; At the same time, depending on the specific situation of government bond issuance, it will study and carry out treasury bond trading to maintain the stability of market expectations.
Appropriate amount of liquidity
From April 1 to April 29, the Central Bank has carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 2 billion yuan for 21 consecutive working days. From the perspective of market interest rate, as of the closing of April 29, the interest rate of pledged repo of 1-day bonds in the inter-bank market (D R001 ）Reported 1.83%, 7-day bond pledge repo rate (D R007 ）It reported 2.1%, maintaining stable operation on the whole.
Everbright Bank Zhou Maohua, macro researcher of the Financial Market Department, said that since April, due to factors such as the small issuance of government bonds and the small maturity of reverse repo, the overall market liquidity is abundant, basically in line with the seasonal law.
"The central bank maintains a small amount of reverse repo in order to better maintain the liquidity stability of the banking system." Everbright Securities Zhang Xu, the chief fixed income analyst, said that the continuous small reverse repo launch at cross festival and cross month time points just shows that the current liquidity of the banking system is in a relatively abundant state from the side.
Pang Ming, Chief Economist and Director of Research Department of Jones Lang LaSalle in Greater China, said that the risk of greater than expected fluctuations in liquidity is limited, and the market capital is stable across months.
Enrich liquidity management tools
Industry experts said that from past experience, liquidity in May will generally show a loose pattern. The central bank subsequently or directly purchases treasury bond assets as appropriate to inject liquidity into the market.
"The consolidation and enhancement of the current economic recovery and positive trend still need reasonable and sufficient liquidity as support, which determines that the trend of capital interest rate in the future is still stable. In the next two months, government bond issuance may speed up, which may cause some disturbance to the capital." Zhang Xu said.
Zhou Maohua said that the current fiscal policy and monetary policy are positive, and the central bank's adjustment of short-term liquidity is relatively flexible. It is expected that liquidity will remain stable and slightly loose in May.
In terms of liquidity regulation, in addition to the conventional open market operating tools, the head of the central bank's relevant department recently said that the central bank's treasury bond trading in the secondary market can be used as a liquidity management method and a reserve of monetary policy tools. The scale of China's national debt market has ranked the third in the world, and its liquidity has improved significantly, which makes it possible for the central bank to carry out cash bond trading in the secondary market.
"Under the circumstance that the central bank is concerned that the current interest rate level may be low and considers steadily introducing the secondary market to carry out treasury bond trading as a liquidity management method, it is expected that the central bank will carry out liquidity management more flexibly and accurately according to the liquidity supply and demand and changes in market interest rates, and effectively smooth the capital disturbance caused by short-term factors such as special treasury bond issuance, so as to maintain reasonable market liquidity The interest rate of margin and maintenance funds continues to fluctuate near the policy interest rate. " Pang Ming said.
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