Every reporter Li Yuwen
On June 3, A-share banking sector fell, mainly led by small and medium-sized banks. As of the closing, only Bank of Communications (SH601328, share price 7.09 yuan, market value 526.5 billion yuan) agricultural bank (SH601288, share price 4.41 yuan, market value 1.54 trillion yuan) bank for economic construction (SH601939, share price 7.06 yuan, market value 1.77 trillion yuan) Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (SH601398, share price 5.44 yuan, market value 1.94 trillion yuan), Bank of China (SH601988, share price 4.44 yuan, market value 1.31 trillion yuan) The share price was the same as the last trading day.
Photo source: Oriental Fortune As of the closing on June 3, the remaining 37 bank shares had declined to varying degrees. Among them, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank (SH601825, with a share price of 7.32 yuan and a market value of 70.59 billion yuan) closed down 7.34%, the largest decline. Bank of Jiangsu (SH600919, share price of 7.96 yuan, market value of 146 billion yuan) Jiangyin Bank (SZ002807, share price of 4.01 yuan, market value of 9.87 billion yuan) fell by more than 3%, CITIC Bank (SH601998, share price 7.01 yuan, market value 374.7 billion yuan) Bank of Nanjing (SH601009, share price 10.09 yuan, market value 104.3 billion yuan) Bank of Suzhou (SZ002966, with a stock price of 7.79 yuan and a market value of 28.56 billion yuan).
In addition, the reporter noticed that just the previous trading day, the State Administration of Financial Supervision released the data of major regulatory indicators of the banking and insurance industry in the first quarter of 2024, and the net interest margin of banks, which has attracted much attention in the industry, continued to narrow. After the net interest margin of commercial banks was lower than 1.7% for the first time and reached 1.69% at the end of the fourth quarter of last year, the net interest margin of commercial banks further decreased to 1.54% in the first quarter of this year.
Nearly 90% of A-share banking stocks fell
As of the closing of June 3, among A-share banking sectors, Bank of Communications, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank and ICBC rose slightly by 0.57%, 0.46%, 0.28% and 0.18% respectively. The closing price of Bank of China was the same as that of the previous trading day, while the other 37 banks all fell to varying degrees, and the proportion of "floating green" shares was close to 90%.
Image source: Flush iFinD Among them, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank once fell by more than 9%, closing at 7.32 yuan, down 7.34%. Bank of Jiangsu and Bank of Jiangyin fell 3.75% and 3.14% respectively, and both fell more than 4% during the session. CITIC Bank, Bank of Nanjing, Bank of Suzhou Changshu Bank A number of individual stocks, such as, fell by more than 2% at the end of the day.
The reporter, as an investor, called the investor hotline of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank to inquire about the reasons for stock price fluctuations. The staff said, Concerned about the abnormal fluctuations of stock prices, the company has no major changes in fundamentals, nor any matters that should be disclosed but have not been disclosed 。 "We understand that this stock price change may be more about some factors at the transaction level. At the early stage of the market, there may be some expectations for the adjustment of some index constituent stocks, and some funds may 'escape' after the adjustment of constituent stocks. However, this has nothing to do with the company's fundamentals. At present, the company's operations are normal."
Main regulatory indicators of commercial banks in 2024 In addition, the reporter noted that the General Administration of Financial Supervision released the data on major regulatory indicators of the banking and insurance industry in the first quarter of 2024 on May 31. Among them, the net interest margin of banks, which has attracted much attention in the industry, continues to narrow. After the net interest margin of commercial banks was lower than 1.7% for the first time and reached 1.69% at the end of the fourth quarter of last year, the net interest margin of commercial banks further decreased to 1.54% in the first quarter of this year 。
Among them, the net interest margin of large commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks, urban commercial banks, private banks, rural commercial banks and foreign-funded banks was 1.47%, 1.62%, 1.45%, 4.32%, 1.72% and 1.47% respectively. In addition to private banks, the net interest margin of other types of banks narrowed compared with the fourth quarter of last year.
Source: Website of the State Financial Supervision and Administration Administration Everbright Securities (Rights protection) Wang Yifeng, chief analyst of the financial industry, said in the research report that the net interest margin continued to fall under pressure in the first quarter of 2024, mainly due to the asset side, while the lower yield of interest bearing assets was mainly affected by several factors, including the cumulative effect of LPR reduction and insufficient effective credit demand, the yield of new loans was under pressure; Residents' willingness to increase leverage is relatively insufficient, and retail credit pricing with relatively high yield is squeezed; With the maturity and renewal of high priced loans in the early stage, the interest margin is facing greater pressure of rolling repricing on the asset side; The impact of the one-time reduction of the stock mortgage interest rate on the interest margin is still waiting.
However, in April this year, the "manual interest compensation" of high interest rate deposits was stopped, which will provide a certain buffer for the pressure of narrowing bank interest margin. According to the calculation of Everbright Securities, regulating "manual interest compensation" deposits will boost the interest margin of state-owned stock banks by 7 to 8 BP.
"Entering the second quarter, with the factors such as repricing at the beginning of the year, the reduction of the stock mortgage interest rate and other factors being digested, and the further release of the deposit 'interest rate cut' dividend, the pressure of narrowing the interest margin is expected to be significantly eased, and the subsequent net interest margin of the banking system may usher in a turning point." The above research report mentioned.
The "package" policy of real estate is expected to drive the valuation repair of the banking sector
Although most A-share banks fell today, for a long time, the growth of the banking sector has been in the forefront of the market since this year. According to iFinD data, as of the close of June 3, the Shenyi Banking Index has increased by 18.29% year to date, second only to the 18.63% increase in coal, ranking second in all industries.
Image source: Flush iFinD The high dividend yield and dividend ratio are considered to be the important reasons for banking stocks to attract market funds, The proportion of cash dividends in 2023 profit distribution plans of many banks exceeds 30% 。 From the perspective of dividend yield, take CCB as an example, the dividend of CCB in 2023 exceeded 100 billion yuan, and the dividend yield exceeded 9%. Sheng Liu Rong, chief financial officer of CCB, mentioned at the 2023 annual performance meeting, "I talked with colleagues from relevant institutions of CCB in Hong Kong, and he said that the dividend rate of 9% return became his first choice for financial management last year. In the future, we also hope to continue to maintain a good dividend ratio."
However, the valuation of bank shares is still low, and the current PB is still only about 0.5 times, At present, the P/B ratio of 42 A-share listed banks is less than 1 。 It is worth mentioning that the recent introduction of a "package" policy on real estate is expected to lead to the repair of the valuation of the banking sector.
Image source: Central Bank website On May 17, the central bank and other departments issued several real estate market documents, making centralized adjustments to the commercial personal housing loan interest rate, personal housing provident fund loan interest rate and the minimum down payment ratio of personal housing loans.
Guolian Securities The research report mentioned that the current bank valuation is low, and the important reason is that the risks in real estate, urban investment and other fields lead to the pressure on the quality of bank assets. The implementation of the real estate "package" is expected to improve the operating conditions of real estate enterprises and ease the pressure on cash flow. The risk of banks in the real estate field is expected to be mitigated and the valuation is expected to be repaired.
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