Reporter Han Yu
Near term, yellow Gold price Ge went out of the "roller coaster" market. Taking the international spot price of gold as an example, Wind data shows that since the beginning of March this year, the spot price of London gold (hereinafter referred to as "London gold") has risen rapidly, with a monthly increase of 9.28%.
This upward trend continued in the middle and first ten days of April. From April 1 to April 19, London cash prices rose again by 7.09%. From April 22 to April 30, the gold price began to turn downward, with a decline of 4.43% in seven trading days. As a result of the correction in the last ten days of the month, London gold spot prices finally rose only 2.34% in April.
From May 1 to May 20, the current price of gold in London showed a fluctuating upward trend, with an increase of 6.13%. It also hit 2450.10 dollars/ounce in the intraday trading on May 20, breaking the record again. Subsequently, from May 21 to May 23, gold prices fell for three consecutive trading days. However, as of May 24 (the day when the gold price closed at 2333.75 dollars/ounce), the current price of gold in London has still risen by 2.10% since May, still at a high level.
Why has gold price fluctuated violently recently? Liu Siyuan, the chief analyst of Lingxiu Finance, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the main reason was that the market had strong differences about the future. Recent economic and employment data in the United States have been mixed, leading the Federal Reserve to be more cautious about interest rate cuts, and the "window" of interest rate cuts has been delayed again and again. The short-term bullies of gold continued to use the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to push up the gold price, and the expected increase of overdraft led to very sensitive market sentiment. Once the US economic data is not conducive to interest rate reduction, short-term bulls will quickly cash in profits and leave the market, leading to sharp fluctuations in gold prices.
It is reported that the latest PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) of the United States was released on May 23, Beijing time. In May, the comprehensive PMI of the United States rose to 54.4, the highest level in two years. Among them, the PMI of manufacturing industry hit a new 2-month high and broke through the 50 hurdles, and the PMI of service industry also hit a new 12-month high. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's May monetary policy meeting released on the same day also showed that some Fed officials were willing to raise interest rates again if inflation risks continued to rise. The unexpected economic data and the "hawkish" signal released by the minutes of the monetary policy meeting have all exerted pressure on the gold price.
It is worth mentioning that although the international gold price has fluctuated at a high level since March, the market trading sentiment is still hot. According to the latest data of the World Gold Council, in April this year, the trading volume of the global gold market continued to increase. The average daily trading volume of the global gold market increased by 12% month on month, reaching 247 billion dollars at the end of the month. The exchange volume increased by 6% to 126 billion US dollars/day.
Chen Yuheng, senior investment adviser of Jufeng Investment Advisors, told the Securities Daily that in the short term, the increase of trading volume usually means the increase of the market's interest in gold, which may be due to various factors, such as the uncertainty of the global market, leading investors to seek safe haven assets.
Liu Siyuan also believed that the surge in trading volume implied potential risks under the hot surface, which meant that the consensus bullish expectations of the market had diverged. He believed that the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy led to the difference between short and medium term gold bullion. It is expected that the gold price will remain at a historical high level and continue to fluctuate significantly.
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