In yellow Gold price With the continuous rise of Georgia, silver The price also soared along the way. In the public fund market, the only products related to "silver" are one Only -- SDIC UBS silver futures, the fund two thousand and twenty-four Recent yield 30% 。
Jingwei Zhongxin saw on the social platform that some investors showed the screenshots of the returns on purchasing the UBS silver futures fund of SDIC, and there were many cases of 10% - 20% returns in the short term. The screenshot shows that some investors have successively bought from May 6, and obtained 14.75% of the income by May 21. Another investor chose to redeem after earning 12% in one month. Is silver futures the only silver futures in the public fund market still available?
Within the year, the income ranked fifth in the whole market
In recent two years, silver futures prices continued to rise. Taking the main contract of BOC Futures as an example, after the periodic bottoming in July 2022, the price will rise all the way from about 4000 yuan/kg at that time to about 6000 yuan/kg at the end of 2023. In 2024, the main contract of BOC Futures continued to be hot, breaking through the 8000 yuan/kg threshold recently, and hitting the highest point of 8733 yuan/kg in recent years on May 21.
On the 23rd, the main futures contract of Bank of Shanghai fell sharply, down 4.99% all over the world, to 7954 yuan/kg. Nevertheless, as of May 23, the main futures contracts of Bank of Shanghai have increased by 31.85% since 2024. Silver prices in overseas markets have shown similar performance. Since February this year, COMEX silver prices have risen continuously. By May 22, they had risen by 28.66% accumulatively this year, with a price of about $30/ounce. As of May 22, Bank of London has risen by 29.42% this year.
As far as SDIC UBS silver futures are concerned, the investment strategy of the fund is to achieve the investment goal mainly by holding the main contract of silver futures, and strive to make the growth rate of the daily net fund value equal to the yield rate of the main contract of silver futures of Shanghai Futures Exchange before deducting relevant fees.
At the beginning of 2024, the cumulative net value of the fund will be only about 0.76 yuan. In March, the net value will start to rise significantly. On May 22, the cumulative net value will reach 1.0241 yuan, and the cumulative return rate within the year will exceed 30%. Affected by the decline of the main contract of BOC Futures on May 23, the cumulative yield of UBS silver futures of SDIC has dropped to 29.15% since May 23.
From the performance of public funds in the whole market, as of December 23, the annual yield of this product was only 45.25% lower than that of Jianxin Flexible Allocation C, 35.93% of Huaxia CSI Shanghai Shenzhen Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF, 29.74% of Bosera Growth Selection, and 29.66% of Jingshun Great Wall Cycle Selection, ranking fifth in the industry. Most of the funds with the highest returns this year have heavily held gold, coal and other precious metal stocks or energy stocks.
Since August 2015, SDIC UBS silver futures have been managed by fund manager Zhao Jian. As for the recent continuous rise of silver price, Zhao Jian recently told China Singapore Jingwei that from the perspective of long-term historical performance, the trend of silver and other precious metals is inversely related to the trend of the US dollar (or US debt interest rate), that is, the interest rate reduction environment of the US dollar is relatively conducive to the performance of silver and other precious metals.
He pointed out that at present, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September this year, which may still be conducive to the upward movement of silver prices. The recovery of global manufacturing industry will also increase the demand for upstream resources and industrial products. Considering that the capital expenditure of most upstream resource industries in the past few years is at a historical low level, many commodity prices have significant upward elasticity. Considering the potential geopolitical disturbance, the demand elasticity of the recovery of manufacturing industry, and the expectation of monetary policy, it is suggested to focus on the long-term investment opportunities of precious metals such as silver.
Similar to the main futures contracts of BOC Shanghai, COMEX silver and London silver have both declined to a certain extent in the past two trading days. Zhao Jian said that the sharp rise in the short term will also increase the volatility of silver. He hoped that investors would look forward to the future and pay more attention to silver and other precious metals in the medium and long term.
Large scale subscription and redemption in the first quarter
UBS silver futures of SDIC rose so obviously, who can enjoy the benefits?
According to the 2023 annual report of the fund, by the end of 2023, there were 91129 investors in UBS silver futures, of which institutional investors held 6.03% of the total shares, and individual investors held 1.339 billion shares, accounting for 93.97% of the total shares.
By the end of 2023, five of the top ten holders of the fund are individual investors, namely Chen Chenggen, Luo Liangbin, Liu Qun, Sun Tao and Luo Hua, with the shares between 4.9 million and 13 million. Among them, Chen Chenggen is the largest holder of the fund, holding 12.9129 million shares, accounting for 1.79% of the total shares.
The other five of the top ten holders are three private equity funds, one alternative investment fund and one FOF fund. The three private funds are respectively Jize Xiaxia Enterprise No. 1 Private Placement under Ningbo Jize, Hengrui Phase 19 Private Placement under Shanghai Hengrui Private Placement, and Ningyuan Peihua No. 2 Private Placement under Shanghai Ningyuan Asset Management. According to the data from the website of China Infrastructure Association, the management scale of the three private equity companies mentioned above is below 2 billion yuan.
By the end of 2023, the employees of SDIC UBS Fund held a total of about 122600 shares of the product, accounting for 0.01% of the total shares. Senior executives of SDIC UBS, heads of fund investment and research departments, and fund managers did not subscribe.
However, according to the first quarter report of UBS Silver Futures 2024 of SDIC, the shares of the fund were significantly subscribed and redeemed in the first quarter, with investors subscribing about 1.245 billion shares in total and redeeming about 1.14 billion shares in total, and the total shares at the end of the first quarter were 1.53 billion shares. This may mean that the investors of the fund have changed significantly.
Investors should note that, as a commodity futures fund, the risk level of SDIC UBS silver futures is medium high risk (R4). In its "product return characteristics", the fund said that its products belong to the fund variety with high risk and high return, and its expected risk and expected return are higher than those of hybrid funds, bond funds and money market funds.
From the perspective of annual returns, from 2016 to 2023, the yields of SDIC UBS silver futures were 5.09%, -12.15%, -8.21%, 14.56%, 6.47%, -24.08%, 0.83% and 4.27% respectively, showing a five positive and three negative trend of annual returns.
Can silver remain strong?
Guoxin Futures said that this round of silver price surge was driven by the resonance of macro, industry and its own supply and demand elasticity. Macroscopically, the slowdown of inflation in the United States in April, which exceeded expectations, boosted the market's interest rate cut expectations again, and the risk aversion brought by the superposition of geographical risks further supported the precious metals to break through the three week shock range, while gold, the industry leader in precious metals, is approaching an all-time high, promoting silver as a highly speculative variety, Under the basic principle of low inventory and tight balance, it reflects a higher price elasticity, and gold and silver are faster than repair.
Looking ahead to the future, Guoxin Futures believes that the US inflation in April slowed down faster than expected to boost interest rate cut expectations, and the upward drive of gold and silver still exists, but the collective profit taking of speculative bulls after the rapid rise will increase the risk of high gold and silver shocks. It is suggested that investors should be alert to the risk of rising and falling, and participate cautiously.
Shen Enxian, chief strategic analyst of Galaxy Futures, said that the market has long been worried about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations and the risk of the dollar. Although the number of central banks buying gold has decreased due to price increases, they are still buying it. Therefore, on the whole, the price of precious metals has some support. However, precious metals tend to adjust every time silver makes up sharply, and the time for adjustment is not expected to be too long. It is suggested that investors should be rational, operate according to the technical rules, and not excessively chase the market.
Minsheng Securities believes that, considering that global silver has dual attributes of financial attribute and industrial attribute, the current interest rate increase cycle of the Federal Reserve has ended and gradually entered into the interest rate reduction cycle, the downward trend of interest rates is expected to continue to boost precious metal prices, silver is expected to keep rising along with gold, and with the signs of bottoming out and recovery of domestic and foreign manufacturing PMI data, The industrial attribute of silver will also gradually strengthen. If overseas economies officially start the cycle of interest rate reduction, it is expected to trigger a fall in the gold silver ratio and drive the silver price into a bull market.
Text: Zhongxin Jingwei Xue Yufei
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