After yesterday's irrational rise, the two special government bonds today ushered in a sharp correction.
According to the market data, as of the closing on May 23, "Teguo 2401" on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange fell 15.91% to 100.654 yuan, with a turnover of 21.9562 million yuan; Shanghai Stock Exchange "24 Special Countries 01" fell 0.73% to 100.578 yuan, with a turnover of 722 million yuan.
Yesterday, the "24 Special Countries 01" of Shanghai Stock Exchange touched the temporary stop twice in the session, with the highest increase of 25% and the corresponding yield falling to 1.5276%; The Shenzhen Stock Exchange "Teguo 2401" closed up 19.70% to 119.700 yuan, with the yield falling back to 1.7256%.
In just two days, based on the yield of the highest price corresponding to today's closing price, the margin of "24 Teguo 01" on the Shanghai Stock Exchange is about 101 bp, and the margin of "24 Teguo 2401" on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange is about 81 bp.
Market participants believe that the sharp fluctuation of special treasury bonds is a rare phenomenon. Behind the "high premium" is more the result of irrational transactions, which is mainly affected by the enthusiastic buying of individual investors. In the future, special treasury bonds will return to the value range.
Broad fluctuation of special national debt
On the first day of listing, the special treasury bond market attracted many individual investors, and the price went up in a wave under the high pricing expectation. Unexpectedly, the next day, the price was killed. "I bought it at a price higher than 120 yuan yesterday, but I thought it could go up." Investor 16 (a pseudonym) told reporters that yesterday's high level locked in the "24 Special Countries 01" of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Unexpectedly, the late price began to fall, and today it directly fell back near the listing price.
According to market data, as of the close of May 23, "Teguo 2401" on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange fell 15.91% to 100.654 yuan, with a turnover of 21.9562 million yuan and a corresponding yield of 2.5384%, 81.28 bp higher than yesterday; Shanghai Stock Exchange "24 Special Countries 01" fell 0.73% to 100578 yuan, with a turnover of 722 million yuan, corresponding to a yield of 2.5420%.
At the opening of yesterday's trading, the special treasury bonds showed a sharp rise. In less than 10 minutes, the "24 Special Countries 01" of Shanghai Stock Exchange hit a temporary stop. After the resumption of trading, it hit a temporary stop again, with a maximum increase of 25%, and the corresponding yield fell from 2.57% to 1.5276%. However, in the last five minutes before the closing of the bond market of the Exchange on the same day, the price of "24 Teguo01" dropped sharply again, closing at 101.316 yuan, with a daily increase of only 1.32%, and the yield rebounded to 2.5070%.
Institutional personage told reporters that on the first day of listing, the "24 Special National 01" of Shanghai Stock Exchange had excessive and abnormal quotations of 113.10 yuan and 124.99 yuan. In the afternoon, securities dealers and institutions bought bonds next time, which made their prices fall back to the reasonable range of the issue price. However, the price of the late market rose again to 101.32 yuan, the corresponding yield to maturity was 2.51%, about 6bp lower than the inter-bank quotation.
"Special country 2401" of Shenzhen Stock Exchange also rose sharply yesterday. The intraday rise exceeded 13%, and the trading resumed at 13:14 that day. After the resumption of trading, "Teguo2401" continued to rise sharply, closing up 19.70% to 119.700 yuan, and the yield further fell to 1.7256%.
In view of the sharp fluctuations in the market of two special government bonds in just two days last day, the insiders said that it was mainly caused by the irrational pricing of individual investors. West China Securities Liu Yu, the chief economist, analyzed that due to the lack of experience in bond pricing, individual investors may have followed the pricing principle of stock assets when quoting 30-year special treasury bonds, ignoring that treasury bonds are not high volatility game assets, and bond prices correspond to the yield to maturity one by one, mainly reflecting investors' expectations of future interest rates, This may also be the reason why the quotation of the exchange frequently deviates from the valuation systematically on the first day of listing.
"This abnormal fluctuation is more like a small transaction volume affecting the price, which is a reflection of the short-term supply and demand relationship." Fixed income traders told reporters that the participants in the exchange bond market are mainly individual investors and non bank institutions, and the scale is relatively small compared with the interbank market. This abnormal fluctuation is more like the irrational behavior of individual investors.
The above-mentioned person further told the reporter that compared with yesterday, the trading volume of special treasury bonds in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges has increased significantly, and the trading volume of "24 Special Guo01" in Shanghai Stock Exchange and "Special Guo2401" in Shenzhen Stock Exchange has increased significantly, which still reflects the enthusiasm of investors.
Long term bond yield will return to reasonable range
The interviewees generally believe that the sharp rise and fall of special government bonds is a rare phenomenon, which only reflects the different perception of market participants on the issue pricing. In the future, the price of special government bonds will return to its own value relatively quickly. In the long run, investors will not give up their enthusiasm, and 2.5% to 3% may be a reasonable range for the yield of long-term government bonds.
Feng Lin, director of the research and development department of Orient JC, believes that if investors buy special treasury bonds and sell them in the secondary market instead of holding them to maturity, they may bear losses caused by rising market interest rates and falling bond prices. However, if investors hold to maturity after buying, they need not worry about the risk of capital gains loss caused by interest rate fluctuations. However, investors holding to maturity may face the risk that the interest rate will rise during the bond holding period, resulting in the interest income not keeping up with the market level.
"Institutional investors generally have a positive attitude towards super long special treasury bonds." Liu Yu believes that super long special treasury bonds have achieved a "good start" and are expected to become one of the active trading varieties in the future. Yesterday's hot market led various groups to actively participate in super long special treasury bond trading, which became a positive signal. Judging from the transactions on that day, there were 314 transactions in 2400001 transactions in the inter-bank market (the current stock of new bonds was only 40 billion yuan), and 537 transactions in 230023 active bonds. The two were evenly divided, reflecting the generally positive attitude of institutional investors towards super long special treasury bonds.
As in the 16th Five Year Plan, investors who were "trapped" by the high level of special treasury bonds yesterday are also concerned. What will be the price trend of special treasury bonds in the future? Zheshang Securities Qin Han, chief fixed income analyst, believes that after the listing of new 30-year special treasury bonds, their short-term performance may be better than that of new secondary bonds 230023. With the centralized issuance of new 30-year treasury bonds in May, July and September, there may be several waves of opportunities to use the spread arbitrage strategy of new and old bonds. The time exposure to use the spread arbitrage strategy of new and old bonds is limited, and the mastery of the band may be more sensitive.
The reporter noticed that the next batch of special bonds 2024 ultra long term special bonds (20-year bonds) will be distributed soon from May 24 to May 27, and will be listed on May 29. The insiders believe that there will be no sharp rise and fall in the market like the initial stage of the listing of the first special bonds. According to Qin Han's analysis, since March 2020, the interest margin between the second new bond and the new bond is usually positive, and fluctuates within the unit range of - 3BP to 8BP as a whole; When the spread between new bonds and sub new bonds reaches the extreme value, the probability of mean reversion becomes larger. Wind data shows that as of the latest trading day, the old bond interest rate of 30-year treasury bonds is about 2.5610%~2.6300%; The interest rate of 10-year old bonds is about 2.3040%~2.4380%.
Market analysts believe that as the People's Bank of China will incorporate the purchase and sale of government bonds into the regular operating tools of the open market in the future, it can adjust market supply and demand through the purchase and sale of government bonds, and will also promote the smooth operation of yield. Judging from the normal operation of the market in recent years, 2.5% to 3% may be a reasonable range for the yield of long-term treasury bonds.
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