Ma Jing/tabulator Chen Jinxing/draftsman "I bought 30 kilograms of silver a month ago, and now I have earned about 15000 yuan." When a reporter from the Securities Times visited Beijing Tianya Jewelry City recently, an investor said.
Recently, precious metals continued to rise sharply, among which silver rose more than gold, attracting some investors. On the one hand, the number of people buying silver bar and silver futures price linked funds is increasing; On the other hand, the recovery price of silver rose, and some investors also took profits in this rise.
Looking ahead, some institutions believe that silver still has room for growth. However, Ma Yinchen, a former precious metal analyst at Zhixin Investment Research Institute, said in an interview with the Securities Times that silver is more risky, and investors cannot copy the price logic of gold to analyze the trend.
Rising faster than gold
Although there were slight fluctuations on May 21 and 22, the prices of gold and silver were still at their highest levels in recent years. As of May 22, before the press release, COMEX gold futures were $2416.6 per ounce and COMEX silver futures were $31.96 per ounce, up 16.66% and 32.67% respectively from the beginning of 2024. Silver rose significantly more than gold.
In terms of spot silver, on May 22, Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot Ag (T+D) reported 8313 yuan/kg, or 8.31 yuan per gram.
The recent rise in silver has attracted many investors. On May 21, the reporter of Securities Times visited Beijing Tianya Jewelry City as an investor. It is called the "water shell" market in Beijing, which is mainly wholesale. Some precious metal traders said that silver was once out of stock due to the failure of production to keep up. Recently, the silver production is sufficient, and the number of buyers is increasing. Although there will be no shortage, there is no denying that there is tension.
The reporter noticed that as the only silver futures fund in the public offering market, SDIC UBS Silver Futures LOF has received a lot of attention. Wind shows that since April 24, the share of this fund has continued to grow after a sharp decline. On May 22, it has exceeded 1 billion, with a year-on-year sharp increase of 436 million.
In fact, the surge in silver began at the end of February and has continued to this day. Ma Yinchen analyzed with the reporter of the Securities Times that the recent rise of silver price is driven by the rise of gold price and supported by the demand factors of silver itself.
She said that the market was still betting that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates. In this expectation of loose monetary policy, the hedging function of precious metals has become prominent, driving gold and silver prices higher. At the same time, the silver market in the past few years has been in a state of tight supply and demand. With the continued recovery of the global economy, the increase in manufacturing and industrial production activities has boosted the demand for silver in industry, which is also good for silver prices.
There are investors taking profits
"Gold can't be bought any more, buy some silver" "Silver has got off the bus, and it's enough to eat a dividend" "The physical goods have been delivered, and it's safe to put them in your pocket"... On social media, due to the higher price of gold, some investors have begun to buy cheaper silver - silver bars or funds, but some have begun to take profits.
On the Rongtongjin platform, a precious metal dealer concerned by ordinary investors, the silver resale price is rising. At 10:00 on May 22, the platform gave a resale offer of 7.7 yuan/gram, which was 1 yuan higher than that at the beginning of May.
Ms. Zhang, an investor, made a profit by selling several silver ornaments in this rise. She told the Securities Times that she had been "hoarding" silver since about two years ago, mainly silver bracelets priced in grams. Recently, she sold about 500 grams of pure silver, as well as a large number of 925 silver jewelry. Among them, the recycling platform can earn about 2 yuan per gram, and the second-hand platform can earn more. She said that although it is second-hand goods, there is no discount, and the unit price above 200 yuan can basically earn another 40 yuan.
It is understood that Tianya Jewelry City is mainly for big customers, and the weight of silver bars is more than 3 kg. During the interview, several precious metal traders said that silver has soared recently, and many investors have come to sell silver bars and plates. Some shopkeepers said that some consumers brought dozens of kilograms of silver to sell. Another shopkeeper said that his shop sold more than 70 kilograms of silver plates on May 20 alone, nearly half of the store's inventory.
Institutional warning of fluctuation risk
Someone enters and someone leaves. How will silver go in the future? Can I still get on the bus? These issues are more concerned by investors.
Ma Yinchen said that from the perspective of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the performance of the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) in April increased the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cut, which will continue to provide upward mobility for the prices of precious metals such as gold and silver. In addition, the ratio of gold to silver, which measures the price of gold and silver, is still at a relatively high level in history and far higher than the historical average. In the future, with the gradual recovery of economic activities, the gold silver ratio is expected to be repaired, which means that the silver price will have more upward space compared with the gold price.
The latest research reports issued by several futures institutions are mostly bullish. For example, Shenyin Wanguo Futures believes that the gap of silver may continue in 2024, and the overall strength of gold and nonferrous metals will be further transmitted to silver, and its elasticity will be amplified. However, some institutions have suggested that at the current stage, most of the market is irrational, so the uncertainty of the market will be significantly enhanced.
Ma Yinchen said that compared with gold, silver has a relatively low price, so the investment threshold is relatively low. However, it should be noted that the volatility of silver price is higher than that of gold price, which means that the risk is relatively high.
She mentioned that although silver and gold are both precious metals, the logic behind the price trend is different. The silver price is also largely affected by its industrial manufacturing demand. Therefore, in the face of the overall rise of the precious metal category, investors cannot copy the price logic of gold to analyze the trend when investing in silver.
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