Recently, the A-share market has experienced a wave of "divine prediction", and many stock prices have fluctuated significantly.
Following May 20 Nanjing Chemical Fiber On May 21, Nanjing Chemical Fiber was again hit by the prediction of "sticking point" after it was predicted to fall to the limit in advance, Zhongtong Bus 、 Jiaxin Silk 、 Chinese Online And other stocks suffered similar situations. May 22 Leike Defence Predicted by "headwind".
With regard to the stock price fluctuation caused by the prediction of "sticking points" of Nanjing Chemical Fiber and Zhongtong Bus, Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have all stated that they have started transaction verification, taken regulatory measures to restrict/suspend transactions for 15 days on relevant accounts, and transferred the suspected violations to further investigation and punishment.
After sorting out, the First Finance reporter found that the circulation of stocks predicted by the above checkpoints were all small, with the circulation of four stocks below 700 million shares, and some stock chips were relatively dispersed.
Tian Lihui, president of the Financial Development Research Institute of Nankai University, believes that this "accurate prediction" is very harmful, it will mislead ordinary investors to make investment decisions, it will also affect the reputation of listed companies, and bring about irrational fluctuations in stock prices. At the same time, market manipulation and dissemination of false information will disrupt the market order and affect the price discovery mechanism. When market participants make decisions based on wrong information, the efficiency of resource allocation will also be reduced.
Several stocks are predicted to be stuck, and the supervision has taken action
After Nanjing Chemical Fiber, Zhongtong Bus, Jiaxin Silk and other stocks were predicted to be "stuck" in advance, the regulator quickly started transaction verification. However, on May 22, another stock was predicted to be "against the wind".
On May 22 Flush The account named "Ku Rong 666" on the stock discussion interface of Leike Defence in the App mentioned that "I am Zhuang, and I will pull the limit at 10 o'clock." Before this, someone also released a message saying that "tomorrow will witness miracles at 10 o'clock". At 10:00 on the same day, Leike Defense sealed the limit of rise.
Similar situations have taken place in recent days. What initially attracted great attention from the market and the regulators was that on May 20, Nanjing Chemical Fiber was predicted to decline by the limit in advance. Someone posted at 13:47, saying, "Nanjing Chemical Fiber, 2:34 p.m., will give you a surprise." Nanjing Chemical Fiber opened the limit in one word in the morning of the "six link board" of that day, opened the limit in one time and sealed it back, but started diving at 14:35 p.m. in the end of the day, and quickly dropped the limit in one word.
In this regard, at noon on May 21, the SSE issued a notice saying that it had paid attention to the relevant online information about the stock price trend on May 20, and immediately started the transaction verification, and would take corresponding measures in a timely manner according to the verification results.
After the supervision, some people still predict against the wind. On May 21, another person predicted on the Internet that the share price of Nanjing Chemical Fiber would rise, which was confirmed on the disk. On the same day, stocks such as Zhongtong Bus, Jiaxin Silk and Chinese Online were similarly "accurately predicted".
Take Zhongtong Bus as an example. At 12:46, a netizen posted a post on the Flush platform saying, "I am driving the limit at one twenty". In the afternoon of May 21, Zhongtong Bus rose in shock. At 1:20 p.m., it hit the trading limit board. The trading limit time was consistent with the prediction of the above shareholders. In the evening of the same day, Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a notice on the stock trading of Zhongtong Bus, saying that it had paid attention to the relevant network information and immediately started the transaction verification.
With regulatory intervention, "prophets" have emerged. On May 22, a decision on trading restriction issued by Shenzhen Stock Exchange gave the answer. According to the details disclosed by Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the shareholder who posted the forecast of Zhongtong Bus's share price was named Chen Guo. It was found that Chen Guo, who claimed to be "Zhuang", held only 700 shares of "Zhongtong Bus" in his securities account before May 21. At 10:29:25 on May 21, the investor declared to sell 700 shares of "Zhongtong Bus" at a price of 11.87 yuan per share close to the ceiling price. During the rapid rise of the stock, all the declarations were withdrawn at 13:17:17.
According to the panel data, around 10:29 on May 21, the transaction of Zhongtong Bus mainly focused on small orders. 13: From 20:00 to 13:20:54, a large number of bills were paid before the limit was raised.
The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges said that, in view of the behavior of relevant investors to fabricate and disseminate false information/misleading information to disrupt the securities market, the Exchange took regulatory measures to restrict/suspend trading of relevant accounts for 15 days in accordance with regulations, and transferred the suspected violations to further investigation and punishment.
It is worth noting that the stock prices of Nanjing Chemical Fiber and Zhongtong Bus, which were named by the regulator, suffered a sharp decline on May 22. Among them, Nanjing Chemical Fiber fell by the limit, and Zhongtong Bus fell by 6.23%.
What are the commonalities of the stocks predicted by the stuck points
So, what are the commonalities of the stocks predicted by the card points? What are the abnormal behaviors of funds?
After sorting out, the First Financial reporter found that the circulation of these stocks were small and easy to operate. From the perspective of the outstanding A-share capital, as of May 22, the outstanding shares of Nanjing Chemical Fiber (366 million shares), Jiaxin Silk (443 million shares), Zhongtong Bus (593 million shares) and China Online (660 million shares) were all below 700 million shares, and the outstanding shares of Leike Defense were 1.251 billion shares.
Among them, according to the first quarter report, of the 366 million outstanding shares of Nanjing Chemical Fiber, only about 189 million shares remain, excluding about 177 million shares held by shareholders holding more than 5% of shares; The shareholders who hold more than 5% of Zhongtong Bus hold about 196 million shares. Excluding these shares, there are 397 million outstanding shares.
The circulating stock market value of the above five stocks is also not high. Except that the Chinese online circulation market value is more than 10 billion yuan, the circulation market value of the other four stocks is less than 7 billion yuan, of which Nanjing Chemical Fiber and Jiaxin Silk are both about 3 billion yuan.
In terms of the shareholding ratio of the top ten circulating shareholders, Nanjing Chemical Fiber has the highest shareholding ratio, up to 54.78%, which also means that there are fewer circulating shares in the secondary market. The shareholding ratio of Zhongtong Bus and Jiaxin Silk is 36.71% and 35.71% respectively. The shareholding ratio of the top ten outstanding shareholders of Chinalink and Leike Defense is relatively low, 19.87% and 8.47% respectively, which means that the chips of these two shares are relatively dispersed.
In addition, according to the trend of funds, the top five trading seats in some stock lists are suspected of buying and selling by hot money.
According to Nanjing Chemical Fiber's Dragon and Tiger List, on May 20, Caitong Securities Hangzhou Shangtang Road Securities Business Department bought 8.3327 million yuan, and on the 21st, the business department listed one seat for sale, selling 23.058 million yuan. Similarly, the Shenzhen Shennan East Road Securities Business Department of Shengang Securities bought 5.9681 million yuan on May 20 and sold 12.207 million yuan on May 21.
A similar situation also occurred on May 22, when Caitong Securities, Shaoxing Paojiang Paozhong North Road Securities Business Department, purchased 15.5772 million yuan on May 21 and sold 8.5624 million yuan on May 22; Sichuan Finance Securities Wuhan Yanjiang Avenue Securities Business Department bought 8.6568 million yuan on May 21, and sold 9.473 million yuan on May 22, ranking first among sellers.
Is it suspected of manipulating the market and insider trading?
The prediction that several stocks have affected the card points recently also triggered the market to discuss whether they are involved in violations.
Tian Lihui believes that the accurate prediction of the stock price by the network's "small prophet" card often involves insider trading, market manipulation or purely accidental situations.
"Someone can predict the trading behavior of the main force of stock investment, which means that the main force is increasing or decreasing its holdings according to the plan rather than making a temporary decision. Whether the main force and its related parties are suspected of market manipulation, insider trading and other violations depends on the source of the main force's shares, sources of funds and the overall trading situation in the early stage, rather than being limited to the" prediction "point of delivery Easy. " Wang Zhibin, a lawyer from Shanghai Minglun Law Firm, told China Business News.
Wang Zhibin believes that the major trading decisions of the main market players may also constitute insider information. At this time, insiders who use the insider information to make profits are suspected of constituting insider trading.
In the opinion of Xu Feng, the director of Shanghai Jiucheng Law Firm, whether these forecasting acts are suspected of manipulating the securities market, as far as the current situation is concerned, it is necessary to see whether they involve the situation of "pooling capital advantages, shareholding advantages, or using information advantages to jointly or continuously buy and sell".
In addition, Xu Feng said that whether the information release platform is suspected of taking this as a means of channeling, because channeling is an important form of communication in fabricating and disseminating false information or misleading information, and may play a greater role than fabricating itself, especially in the communication and channeling of shareholder communities.
According to Article 56 of the Securities Law, no unit or individual is allowed to fabricate or disseminate false or misleading information to disrupt the securities market. All kinds of media must disseminate information about the securities market truthfully and objectively, and misleading is prohibited. Media and its staff engaged in securities market information reporting shall not engage in securities trading that conflicts with their work duties. Whoever fabricates or disseminates false or misleading information, disturbs the securities market and causes losses to investors shall be liable for compensation according to law.
As for the impact of the stock price forecast by the checkpoint on the market order and fairness, Tian Lihui believes that if "accurate forecasting" involves insider trading or market manipulation, it will disrupt the market order, affect the price discovery mechanism, and make the stock price unable to truly reflect the company's value and the relationship between market supply and demand. This behavior undermines the fairness principle of the market, making some investors who use non-public information obtain illegitimate benefits, while ordinary investors are at a disadvantage. In the long run, it may reduce investors' trust in the market and affect the healthy development of the market.
As far as investors are concerned, Tian Lihui believes that investors should pay attention to information risk, investment decision risk, market fluctuation risk, regulatory risk and legal risk. Investors should be alert to the source and authenticity of information to avoid being misled by false information. Then keep rational thinking, do not blindly follow the so-called "accurate prediction", but make decisions according to your own investment strategy and risk tolerance.
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP
Editor in charge: Yang Hongyan
