Special topic: the first day of the listing of ultra long term special treasury bonds, "Teguo 2401", rose nearly 20%
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Source: Associated Press of Finance
Associated Press, May 22 (reporter Yan Jun) After robbing gold and national debt, the industry teased: today, all the peers are not doing debt. They are watching the show and focusing on a Chinese aunt to teach you how to do debt!
On May 22, the first issue of super long term special treasury bonds "24 Teguo 01" and "Teguo 2401" were listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange respectively.
The super long term special treasury bonds issued this year are bookkeeping bonds, which can be traded immediately after listing. The first batch of super long term special treasury bonds were listed and traded, which caused onlookers. Taking "24 Special Countries 01" as an example, it rose sharply to circuit breaker at the opening, rose sharply again to 25% after resumption of trading, and temporarily stopped at 15:27 in the second session until trading resumed three minutes before the closing of the afternoon.
However, after the resumption of trading, only 3 minutes later, it started to plummet. As of the closing, it only closed up 1.32%, restoring calm.
The roller coaster market is not enough to describe the ups and downs of today's market. How exciting is it?
To convert, the term of the ultra long term special treasury bonds issued in this period is 30 years, which is fixed rate interest bearing bonds, with a total amount of 40 billion yuan, and the coupon rate determined through bidding is 2.57%. This means that the face price of national debt is 100 yuan, and the annual interest rate is 2.57 yuan. This morning, it rose or dropped to 25%, which can be interpreted as the face price of 125 yuan, which is about "ten year interest rises in the morning".
Obviously, this will not be normal. Many fund managers told the Associated Press of Finance that the "24 Special Countries 01" of Shanghai Stock Exchange and the "Special Countries 2401" of Shenzhen Stock Exchange had significant fluctuations, and the overall trading volume was not large. Such a rise did not match the long-term economic expectations. Today, there is an element of capital speculation, similar to the logic of hyping secondary new shares. There is no way to use the analytical framework of bond investment to explain the increase since today's listing.
At the same time, some fund managers suggested that investors should participate cautiously and be alert to risks because this increase is not valuable for yield.
The first issue of super long term special treasury bonds is in hot trade
The trading of "Teguo 2401" on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was also hot, and the trading was temporarily suspended twice during the session. As of the closing, "Teguo 2401" had risen 19.70%, and now the nominal price was 119.7 yuan.
According to public data, the special treasury bonds issued in this period are fixed rate interest bearing bonds with a term of 30 years, a coupon rate of 2.57%, and an interest payment frequency of half a year. Individual investors can purchase in the exchange market through ordinary individual securities accounts. The minimum number of consignments is 1000, which is 100000 yuan based on the issue price. T+0 trading is adopted on the floor. If the investor holds it to maturity, it will be cashed at the par value. In simple calculation, the face value of held to maturity is about 177 yuan.
The special treasury bonds were very popular from issuance to transaction. On the one hand, the sales quota of two banks selling super long term special treasury bonds ran out on the day of opening for purchase; On the other hand, the two bonds were suspended twice on the day of listing, and the prices fluctuated significantly.
During the suspension period, market discussions were triggered. Organic insiders said that bond traders were busy watching and many peers were asking "what happened".
The reporter from the Associated Press of Finance learned from the fund manager that the "24 Special Countries 01" of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the "Special Countries 2401" of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange fluctuated significantly, and the overall trading volume was not large. The "Shanghai Securities Fixed Income" did not trade at a premium, so there was a suspicion of unlimited speculation.
"There is capital speculation, which is similar to the logic of hyping secondary new shares. There is no way to use the analytical framework of bond investment to explain the increase since the listing," said a fund manager.
It is worth noting that the prices of the same bonds vary greatly between banks and exchanges. Another fund manager said that the rise of these two government bonds did not match the long-term economic expectations, and there were some irrational factors. After the temporary suspension, the prices also fell. In contrast, the prices in the inter-bank market were relatively stable. With the gradual stabilization of trading sentiment, it was expected that the prices of the special government bonds in the exchange would return to the prices of the special government bonds in the inter-bank market.
Some insiders said that the price in the inter-bank market is relatively stable, which means that the speculation among banks is not strong; However, the exchange fluctuated sharply, so it is no wonder that the market said "watching Aunt speculation".
The newly issued bond base accounted for 80% in the year, and the scale of the market's bond based ETF exceeded 100 billion
The bond market of Changniu has captured the minds of investors. Whether it is the first issue or holding, channels and e-commerce platforms all regard the bond base as the main product, and online bonus debt has become a powerful tool for fund companies to do large-scale business.
In terms of issuance, as of May 22, there were 406 newly established funds in the market, with a total issuance share of 404.529 billion yuan, and an average issuance share of 996 million yuan. Among them, bond funds are the absolute main force in the issuance scale. During the same period, 132 bond funds were established, with the issuance share of 324.07 billion yuan, accounting for 80.11%. The average issuance share was 2.455 billion yuan, nearly 2.5 times the total average issuance share.
Specifically, the issuance scale of 39 bond bases exceeded 3 billion, including 15 bond bases with the issuance scale reaching or approaching 8 billion, including Anxin Changxin Enhancement, Xingzheng Global China Bond 0-3 year policy financial bonds, Taikang China Bond 0-3 year policy financial bonds, and UBS Qiyuan interest rate bonds.
The changes in the market's bond based ETFs can also represent the preference of funds. Since this year, there have been 20 bond based ETFs in the whole market, with a total scale of more than 100 billion yuan. The short-term financing ETF of HFT has exceeded 30 billion yuan, the ETF scale of policy financial bonds of Fuguo China Bond for 7-10 years has reached 15 billion yuan, and the corporate bond ETF of Ping An Fund has also recently exceeded 10 billion yuan.
Taking Ping An corporate bond ETF as an example, its scale increased by about 4 billion yuan in the year and exceeded 2 billion yuan in the past month. Wang Renzeng, the fund manager of the ETF, said that under the macroeconomic background that the current monetary policy remains stable and loose, and the market liquidity remains reasonable and abundant, high-grade credit bonds have excellent credit qualifications, stable profits, and low default risk, especially in the current low interest rate environment, which is expected to continue to attract investors, providing broad space for the development of credit bond ETFs.
In fact, not only domestic investors like to buy bonds, but also overseas investors prefer bonds when allocating RMB assets. According to the data of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the net purchases of domestic bonds and stocks by foreign investors in April were 124.7 billion yuan and 45.1 billion yuan respectively, which is the eighth consecutive month that foreign institutional investors increased their holdings of Chinese bonds.
In addition, according to the data released by the Shanghai headquarters of the People's Bank of China, as of the end of April, overseas institutions held 4.05 trillion yuan of bonds in the inter-bank market, accounting for about 2.9% of the total custody of the inter-bank bond market.
Slow bond market logic remains unchanged
Today, driven by the first issue of ultra long term special treasury bonds, the ETF of long-term 30-year treasury bonds ranked first in the market, rising 0.18% throughout the day. It is worth noting that the long-term national debt has declined from its high on April 23 to 2.29% so far, which is currently in the shock stage.
Some fund managers said that the overall duration of ultra long term special treasury bonds is longer and more sensitive to interest rates. Compared with short-term bonds, a small increase in interest rates may also lead to large losses in net prices. With the gradual improvement of economic fundamentals and the acceleration of bond supply, investors should pay special attention to the interest rate risk of such bonds.
However, fund managers are not pessimistic about the overall bond market. Zou Wei, general manager of fixed income research department and fund manager of Golden Eagle Fund, said that the recent interest rate curve basically continued the trend of last month and continued to be steep. The rise of long-term interest rates was mainly affected by some rumors and the impact of the supply of ultra long treasury bonds. Judging from the issuing rhythm of the super long national debt announced at present, it has been divided into more than 20 issues, each of which amounts to tens of billions. The amount of each issue is also small, which is expected to have little impact on the market. Medium and short term interest rates mainly benefit from abundant liquidity. Against the backdrop of asset shortage, manual interest compensation was cracked down, capital disintermediation and deposit relocation were carried out, and medium and short term bonds were sought after.
From a longer-term perspective, Zou Wei said that under the guidelines of high-quality economic development, the bond bull may continue when the old and new drivers of growth are changing. Of course, the market may also have a callback in the future. People will be afraid of heights when they rise too much. At this time, the negative factors will often be amplified. After all, there is no asset that only rises but does not fall. The bond market will continue to grow stronger in twists and turns.
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