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● Our reporter Wang Hui
The A-share real estate sector has rebounded from a low level recently, encouraged by the frequent warm wind in the policy area and the "heavy new policy" launched by the Central Bank and other ministries and commissions. Many private equity institutions said that this round of new policies is expected to significantly improve the confidence of the real estate market, and will bring positive policy effects in both supply and demand, thus gradually reversing the cautious expectations of the early market. In this context, private placement is optimistic about the opportunities of real estate sector repair and long-term investment opportunities of high-quality enterprises in the upstream and downstream industrial chain of real estate.
Fundamentals are expected to recover in an all-round way
Bao Xiaohui, Chairman of Changli Assets, said that after the launch of this round of new policies, the overall situation of the real estate market and the fundamentals of real estate developers are expected to "recover in all directions". The overall performance of the real estate industry in the past two years is relatively weak. Whether the financial situation of a few real estate enterprises has changed or the sales side has weakened, it has suppressed market confidence. The direct and potential impact of the new policy on the real estate market, developers, upstream and downstream of the industrial chain is significantly positive, which is conducive to correcting and reversing the weak situation of the early real estate market.
Jiang Jingwen, president of Wukong Investment Research, said that the current round of policies is driven by both supply and demand, and the policy effect is worth expecting. On the supply side, policies such as affordable housing refinancing will promote the de stocking of the real estate market. The "improvement of supply and demand pattern" brought about by these policies will help stabilize housing price expectations, weaken market wait-and-see sentiment, and release housing purchase demand in an orderly manner. On the demand side, lowering the interest rate of provident fund loans and the down payment ratio will also provide support for home buyers in terms of purchasing power. From the perspective of previous real estate market policies, incentive policies will improve sales data in the short term; From the medium-term perspective, it is expected that the follow-up supportive policies will be released, so as to reverse the public's expectations of housing prices and improve the demand for housing.
Real estate stock materials continue to be repaired
Many front-line private placers continue to be optimistic about the periodic stock price repair and medium - and long-term investment opportunities of the real estate sector and the real estate chain.
Mingyu Assets believed that under the background of the implementation of the heavy real estate policy last week, the performance of A-share real estate industry chain related targets was outstanding. Based on the analysis of land supply restricted by the new land transfer regulations in the early stage, it is expected that the real estate industry will enter the de stocking stage. The valuation of the real estate sector is expected to continue to repair, of which the high-quality leader deserves special attention.
In addition, many private investors said that the investment opportunities related to the upstream and downstream industrial chains of real estate deserved special attention. Bao Xiaohui said that in the past two or three years, the real estate sector has continued to adjust due to fundamentals, market expectations and other reasons. For the moment, this round of strong recovery of low prices of real estate stocks can be temporarily defined as "low price rebound after long-term oversold driven by favorable policies". From the perspective of long-term investment, the institution is optimistic about insurance strongly related to real estate (some insurance institutions have certain debt and equity assets in the real estate industry in the early stage), household appliances and other sectors.
Jiang Jingwen believes that with a large number of real estate targets and a long industrial chain, we should pay attention to the medium - and long-term industrial trend, focus on the cycle products with tight balance between supply and demand, and benefit from home appliances and construction machinery that are "logic for going to sea". In addition, in the future, the agency will continue to optimize the allocation in combination with factors such as the performance improvement of related companies brought about by the new real estate policy.
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