Securities Times reporter Wei Shuguang
After the epic price of copper futures on the COMEX, gold silver Copper prices continued to hit record highs. Spot gold is close to 2450 dollars/ounce, hitting a new record high. The price of domestic silver futures rose by 8%, touching the ceiling, while the price of silver spot rose by 8.33%.
Not only copper and precious metals rose alarmingly, but domestic commodity futures rose in general on the 20th, with soda ash and manganese silicon rising by more than 6%, and liquefied gas, Shanghai nickel, etc. rose in succession. In the stock market, precious metals, industrial metals, small metals and other sectors led the rise, driving the rise of coal, oil, shipping and other cyclical stocks.
In this regard, Shanghai Gold Exchange (Shanghai Gold Exchange for short) issued a notice to warn of risks, and provided guarantees and expanded boards for several contracts of spot gold and silver. At present, in the international market, hedge fund speculative bulls are still increasing their positions, especially in the U.S. copper futures market. The lack of deliverable products may drive prices to further rise, drive trading sentiment higher, and trigger a new round of rising cycle of gold and other commodities.
Guarantee and expansion of Shangjin
On May 20, Shanghai Financial Exchange issued a notice on doing a good job in market risk control, reminding member units to improve their awareness of risk prevention, make detailed risk emergency plans, and remind investors to do a good job in risk prevention, reasonably control their positions, and rationally invest. Shanghai Gold Exchange requires that the margin ratio of spot contracts such as gold (T+D) should be adjusted from 9% to 10%, and the limit of increase and decrease should be adjusted from 8% to 9% from the closing settlement on Tuesday, May 21, 2024; The margin ratio of silver (T+D) contract was adjusted from 12% to 13%, and the limit of increase and decrease was adjusted from 11% to 12%.
On the spot market that day, the gold (T+D) price of Shanghai Gold Exchange closed at 574 yuan/g, up 2.53%, while the silver (T+D) price closed at 8229 yuan/kg, up 8.33%. In the futures market, the main contract of gold futures closed at 578.84 yuan/g, up 2.81%; The main contract of silver hit the limit, up 8% to 8211 yuan/kg. The international copper futures price of Shanghai Energy Exchange Center once hit the 7% ceiling price of 79670 yuan/ton, creating the highest transaction price since the international copper futures were listed in 2020.
At the same time, COMEX gold futures, COMEX silver futures and COMEX copper futures continued to rise during the Asia Pacific trading session of the international commodity futures market, all hitting a new record. Moreover, the international spot gold was once close to 2450 US dollars/ounce, once again hitting a record high; The international spot silver station reached a new high of $32/ounce in 11 years.
Boosted by the above prices, precious metals, industrial metals, small metals and other sectors rose collectively in the A-share market on the 20th. Zijin Mining rose 3.67%, and its intraday share price hit a record high, with the latest market value of 512.6 billion yuan. Non ferrous stocks, such as Sichuan Gold, Yuguang Gold and Lead, and Northern Copper, rose by limit one after another, while Hong Kong shares, China Silver Group, rose by more than 50%.
Exchange traded funds (ETFs) related to gold and non-ferrous stocks also showed strong performance. Among them, the gold ETF Huaxia (518850), which tracks the trend of spot price of gold in Shanghai Gold Exchange, rose 2.45%, while the gold stock ETF (159562), which tracks the China Securities, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong gold industry stock index, rose 6.25%, leading the list of ETF gainers, and the cumulative growth of the product has exceeded 50% this year.
US copper forced its position to drive commodity soaring
"Domestic and foreign funds are focusing more on investment opportunities in strategic resource products represented by copper." Gu Fengda, chief non-ferrous analyst of Guoxin Futures, said that this year, upstream resource products represented by gold and non-ferrous metals have led to a strong rebound in overall commodity prices, which is behind the macro economic environment, geopolitical environment and traditional demand season expectations at home and abroad, As well as hot money betting on international strategic bulk resources, the theme of good products is superimposed and driven by resonance.
On the international market, hedge fund speculative bulls continue to increase their positions, and the positions of SPDR gold ETF and COMEX non-commercial net long positions increase significantly, which also promotes Gold price Enter a new round of uplink. As of May 17, the gold position of SPDR gold ETF, the world's largest gold listed trading fund, was 838.54 tons, an increase of 5.18 tons, or 0.62%, compared with the previous trading day, with a cumulative increase of 6.62 tons that week.
According to the latest data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the net long positions of COMEX gold held by speculators increased 9811 to 172942 in the week of May 14. COMEX silver speculators' net long positions increased 6707 positions to 41621. COMEX copper speculators added 6819 net long positions to 72785.
Liu Shiyao, an analyst with Zijin Tianfeng Futures Company, believes that the current high market price is not an accident. Behind the rise is the unsustainable debt of the United States and the de dollarization of other economies. The inflation logic of gold continues to dominate the current round of quotations.
In addition, the closing position of US Copper is also promoting market sentiment. According to the latest report of Everbright Futures, COMEX copper crowding event has made the market see the dilemma of copper inventory for delivery in the United States, and the historical extremely low inventory has been used by bulls. To resolve the crisis is to demolish the East Wall to pay the West Wall, and move the copper that can be delivered in COMEX all over the world, which takes time. At present, COMEX copper position is still high, so it may still ferment. Before the key inflection point event is seen, the direction may still be upward.
Bulk commodities
Or enter a new cycle
On May 20, the domestic commodity futures closed up in general. Among them, soda ash and manganese silicon rose more than 6%, liquefied gas and Shanghai Nickel rose more than 4%, styrene and aluminum oxide rose more than 3%, Shanghai Gold and PVC rose more than 2%, palm oil and rubber rose more than 1%, and cotton yarn and cotton rose slightly. Only a few varieties such as eggs and peanuts declined.
At present, global commodity prices have soared to the highest level in 13 months. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, which tracks 24 kinds of energy, metals and agricultural products, has risen 9% so far this year, mainly driven by global demand and supply disruptions. Among them, copper price has risen by 31% and oil price has risen by 11%.
The general rise in commodity prices has led the stock market to rise in coal, oil, shipping, aquaculture and other cyclical stocks in addition to the metal sector. According to the statistics of iFind in Flush, oil service engineering rose 4.03%, coal mining increased 3.51%, and aquaculture industry increased 3.27% in the Shenwan secondary sector.
Ye Peipei, head of the resource product research team and fund manager of CEIBS Fund, said recently that it is currently in the stage of super large commodity cycle. In the past 60 years, the market has experienced 2.5 rounds of super cycle of commodities. The first round, from the 1960s to the 1970s, corresponded to the rise of industrialization in the United States. The second round is from 2002 to 2012, corresponding to the rise of industrialization and urbanization in China. From 2020 to now, the third wave of commodity big cycle is going through. The market has some differences on the specific position of the current big cycle, but investment opportunities are also generated from the poor expectations.
According to the latest research report of CSC, the interest rate cutting cycle of the Federal Reserve is about to start, the weak expectation of the US dollar stimulates the "financial attributes" of non-ferrous metals, and resource goods with limited supply are expected to go up. At present, the demand at home and abroad has been restored, promoting the growth of non-ferrous commodity consumption, and the global green energy revolution continues, which is expected to open a new cycle of demand for some commodities.
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