Associated Press, May 20 (reporter Yan Jun) From "stepping on the brake" to soaring again, the time of gold reversing to pick up people is very short. Under the weekend's geopolitical risk concerns, funds rushed into the risk aversion plate again.
Morning market on May 20, International Gold price The gold price in London and COMEX once broke through $2440 per ounce, and the domestic gold price was significantly higher. silver The price reached an 11 year high, and copper and other nonferrous metals were forced into the air.
At the closing of A-share market, precious metals and nonferrous metals remained strong for a day, and the whole gold jewelry sector rose 5.82%. In terms of individual stocks, Xiaocheng Technology, Hunan Silver, North Copper and Shengda Resources rose by the limit. Domestic commodity futures ended up generally, and the main contract of Bank of Shanghai rose by a record high. International copper and Shanghai copper rose by more than 5%.
ETFs are more representative of the ultimate style of the market. Two gold ETFs rose by more than 6%. Gold and non-ferrous ETFs led the rise of stock ETFs.
In the view of fund companies, geopolitical events are only a booster for gold to rise again recently. The gold price has continued to rise in the past two weeks, which is actually more related to its monetary and financial attributes. Liu Tingyu, ETF fund manager of Yongying gold stock, said that the inflation, employment, economic growth and consumption data released by the United States had weakened, the US dollar index and US bond interest rate had fallen back from high levels, and the first interest rate cut expected by the market was earlier again, which was the main reason for this round of gold recovery.
At the same time as gold and silver soared, market funds began to be distributed on copper, and former Goldman Sachs executives also publicly shouted "Buy copper quickly". The industry believes that the copper relay is worth looking forward to by adding industrial attributes.
Gold ETF has become the champion of the year
The domestic gold price easily broke through 740 yuan on the weekend, and continued to rise sharply on Monday. The ETF, the largest gold stock in the industry under Winwin Fund, opened higher and went higher, with the closing up 6.35%. The intraday price hit a new high for listing, hitting the third consecutive positive week. Huaxia's gold stock ETF also rose by 6.25%, followed by Cathay Pacific's gold stock ETF by 5.62%.
Cyclical stocks rose out of the theme. In the recent 60 days, the ETF of two gold stocks rose by more than 47%. Geopolitical risks, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and the enthusiasm of central banks to purchase gold are rising. In terms of the extended cycle, gold ETFs have become the annual fund champions. As of May 20, the ETF of Yongying gold shares had risen by 41.12% within the year, leading the public funds.
Periodic stocks such as precious metals and nonferrous metals have performed well this year as a whole, and many nonferrous ETFs and mining ETFs have also increased by more than 20% this year.
Interestingly, compared with the domestic gold price (AU9999), which rose by 2.74% today, the ETF elasticity of gold shares was highlighted, significantly exceeding the gold price increase.
In terms of ETFs, the performance of gold ETFs is significantly better than that of gold ETFs. In this regard, Ping An Fund explained that gold ETFs mainly invest in gold futures contracts, solving the problem of poor liquidity of physical gold. However, gold ETFs are virtual assets rather than interest bearing assets. The price trend and investment income are basically equivalent to the physical gold price, and the elasticity of investment income is not large. However, the gold ETF is called the "amplifier" of gold price. The investment target includes the important listed companies in the gold industry chain, including gold mining, smelting and sales.
Liu Tingyu introduced that according to the first quarter report of 2024, listed companies in the gold industry chain had outstanding performance. According to the data of the China Gold Association, China's gold production and consumption in the first quarter increased year on year, showing the characteristics of prosperous supply and demand. Winwin Fund believes that gold stocks have entered the Davis double click cycle with both volume and price rising. Factors such as profit leverage and output increase brought by mining rights of gold companies, expansion of gold store channels, etc. are expected to help gold stocks continue to amplify gold price elasticity in the future.
Speed up of newly issued gold theme fund
Like Aunt's crazy rush for gold, funds are also running into gold ETFs, and gold stock ETFs show a trend of rising and buying. For example, the ETF scale of Yongying's gold shares increased by 416.95% over the beginning of the year. As of May 17, it had attracted more than 100 million yuan in the past five days and more than 700 million yuan in the past 60 days.
In the face of the allocation demand brought by the surge, fund companies naturally want to seize this wave of wealth. Yongying and Huaxia have previously issued gold stock ETF feeder funds to facilitate the allocation of over-the-counter investors. Since this year, Cathay Pacific, Hua'an and ICBC Credit Suisse have all issued new stock ETFs of China Securities Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong gold industry, and Ping An Fund has also issued such ETFs today.
In the view of Wang Renzeng, the proposed fund manager of Ping An CSI Shanghai Hong Kong Shenzhen Gold Industry ETF, gold is ushering in long-term allocation opportunities as a substitute for safe haven assets and US dollar asset reserves. Under the four core attributes of gold, namely, monetary attribute, financial attribute, commodity attribute, and risk aversion attribute, gold price has the basis of long-term rise, and the continuous strengthening of gold price will also drive the performance of individual stocks in the gold industry, especially gold mining stocks, which are expected to form a supply and demand gap trend and gradually highlight future investment opportunities.
Most fund companies are now "silent" about gold. Liu Tingyu said that the central bank's purchase of gold, which has a great impact on gold prices in the past two years, is expected to continue. In the first quarter of 2024, the global official gold reserves increased by 290 tons, of which the People's Bank of China continued to purchase 27 tons in the first quarter. According to the survey of the World Gold Council, the trend of central bank purchase of gold is expected to continue in the next five years.
Wang Xiang, fund manager of Bosera Fund Index and Quantitative Investment Department, said that gold is the only asset among all bulk commodities that maintains a long-term upward slope, and its long-term return is relatively stable. In the 20 years from 2003 to the present, the annualized compound growth rate is 8.1%, outperforming many equity broad-based indexes, but its volatility is only 2/3 of the stock market, and the income distribution is relatively stable. In terms of allocation, he suggested that investors allocate about 10% of total assets, and use this ratio as the hub for allocation, which can take into account the increase of risk return rate and the control of maximum pullback.
Can the former Goldman Sachs executives succeed in shouting "buy copper"?
With gold and silver at a high level, funds without "getting on board" have begun to allocate copper opportunities. London copper reached a record high, and Shanghai copper rose 5.26% today.
Today, the words of former Goldman Sachs executives "Buy copper quickly" also spread widely in the market. Jeff Curry, former head of bulk commodity research at Goldman Sachs and chief strategic officer of Carlyle Group's energy path department, said recently that the tight supply of copper would cause its price to rise significantly. He said frankly, "This is the most eye-catching transaction I have seen in this industry for more than 30 years."
Copper prices have also risen by more than 20% this year. Citigroup research reports that copper futures on COMEX and London Metal Exchange (LME) have attracted up to 25 billion dollars of speculative long funds.
Whether copper can succeed the surge of precious metals, in the industry's view, the global commodity carnival, copper also has industrial attributes, so it has more expectations.
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