Securities Times reporter Zhang Juanjuan Liu Junling
On May 17, the real estate market welcomed a big positive.
On the same day, the nationwide video conference on housing guarantee and delivery was held in Beijing. He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, attended the conference and delivered a speech. He Lifeng stressed that we should do a good job in tackling the risk of uncompleted commercial housing, and solidly promote the key work of ensuring the delivery of housing and digesting the stock of commercial housing.
At the same time, the real estate credit policy was further optimized. The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision jointly issued a document to adjust the minimum down payment ratio of personal housing loans, specifying that the minimum down payment ratio of commercial personal housing loans for the first housing should be adjusted to no less than 15%, and the minimum down payment ratio of commercial personal housing loans for the second housing should be adjusted to no less than 25%. On the same day, the People's Bank of China also announced that from May 18, it would cut the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points; The lower limit of interest rate policy for commercial individual housing loans for the first and second homes nationwide will be abolished.
Quickly follow up and implement in many places. Henan, Jiangxi, Hefei, Chengdu, Suzhou, Wuhan and other places issued a notice stating that the interest rate of provident fund loans would be lowered and the existing loans in many places would be adjusted on January 1, 2025; Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, four first tier cities, have announced the reduction of individual housing provident fund loan interest rates.
Relaxed real estate policy
Favorable A-share trend
The centralized introduction of favorable policies also aroused great repercussions in the stock market. On May 17, the main funds poured into the real estate stocks in a large scale, and the A-share real estate sector broke out in an all-round way, driving the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index to rise sharply. In Hong Kong stocks, Jingrui Holdings rose more than 230%, and Guangdong Harbor Holdings, Jianye Real Estate and other stocks rose more than 40%. In terms of overseas market, China concept stock Fangduoduo rose more than 320%, with Gao ranking the first among China concept stocks.
As a pillar industry of the national economy, the added value of the real estate industry has continuously exceeded 7 trillion yuan in the past five years, accounting for about 6% of the national GDP. The healthy development of the real estate industry has significantly promoted economic growth. In the past 15 years, the cyclical changes of China's real estate industry have witnessed the economic fluctuations, during which the real estate industry has also experienced many downturns. Under the loose real estate regulation policy, the real estate industry has recovered and recovered, and the A-share market has also ushered in a stage of rise.
According to the statistics of Securities Times · Databao, since 2008, the Chinese government has launched the "4 trillion investment plan" (2008), "930 New Deal" (2014), "330 Policy" (2015) and other policies related to real estate. After the introduction of the policies, the stock market has mostly ushered in an upward trend.
For example, on November 5, 2008, the State Council decided to invest 4 trillion yuan in the next two years to stimulate the economy. The impacts on real estate include: accelerating the construction of affordable housing projects; We will increase support for the construction of low rent housing and accelerate the transformation of shantytowns. On the day when the policy was introduced, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose by 3.16%. Since then, the stock market has gradually come out of the haze from the bottom. From November 5, 2008 to August 3 of the next year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose by more than 100%.
On March 30, 2015, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the Notice on Adjusting the Business Tax Policy on Individual Housing Transfer, which proposed that individuals who would purchase ordinary housing for more than two years (including two years) for sale would be exempt from business tax, which was five years earlier. On that day, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose by 2.59%. From March 30 to June 12 of that year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose by nearly 40% in total, during the bull market of A-shares.
Prior to the introduction of this round of regulatory policies, many places in the country have formulated personalized housing policies in advance. For example, Shenzhen issued a notice on May 6 to further optimize the real estate policy from the aspects of optimizing the housing purchase restriction policy in different areas, adjusting the purchase policy of commercial housing for enterprises and institutions, and improving the convenience of second-hand housing transactions. According to the data of Shenzhen Real Estate Agency Association, from May 6 to 12, the contracted number of second-hand houses in Shenzhen exceeded 1350, an increase of more than 200% month on month.
14 A-share real estate enterprises
Decrease in debt ratio in the first quarter
Since 2020, the overall profit scale of companies in the real estate industry has continued to decline. By the end of 2023, there are 54 real estate listed companies (including A shares and Hong Kong shares, of which Hong Kong shares are calculated based on total liabilities and total equity) with total assets of more than 100 billion yuan, and they are basically real estate development companies; There are 22 real estate enterprises in China. There are 4 real estate enterprises with total assets exceeding one trillion yuan, respectively Vanke A 、 Poly Development 、 Greenland Holdings And China Resources Land, of which Vanke A has total assets of more than 1.5 trillion yuan and still has 1.46 trillion yuan by the end of the first quarter of 2024. Greenland Holdings has a total assets of 1.19 trillion yuan. By the end of the first quarter of 2024, its total assets had risen slightly.
Overseas development and China Merchants Shekou The total assets exceeded 900 billion yuan, of which the total assets of China Merchants Shekou increased by more than 10 billion yuan at the end of the first quarter of this year.
Vanke A, Poly Development Xincheng Holding At the end of the first quarter of this year, the asset liability ratio of 14 A-share companies declined compared with the end of last year, and state-owned enterprises accounted for 50%.
20 real estate enterprises
2024 performance expectation is raised
With the introduction of favorable policies, major agencies have raised their ratings and performance targets for real estate companies.
According to the statistics of Databao, compared with the end of the first quarter of 2024, there are 18 real estate companies whose latest comprehensive scores (as of May 17) have been raised, including Source of heaven and earth 、 Nanjing Hi-Tech 、 Qixia Construction 、 Special development service The four companies are all local state-owned enterprises, and the rating of the last three companies has been upgraded from "buy" at the end of the first quarter to the current "overweight".
In fact, since the real estate sector started to rebound, institutions have paid more attention to individual stocks in the industry. Since April 25, a total of 17 real estate stocks have obtained the institutional "buy" rating. Poly Development Binjiang Group 、 Huafa Shares There are more than 10 rating agencies. In addition, I love my family 、 Wanye Enterprise Get the first attention and recommendation from the organization.
At the same time, 20 companies were raised the forecast value of net profit growth in 2024 by institutions in the same period (consensus forecast), including 7 Hong Kong stocks, including Jinmao Service, Midea Real Estate, China Resources Land, etc., but their target value of net profit growth in 2024 is low. There are 13 A-share companies. Judging from the predicted growth rate, five of them will turn their net profits into profits in 2024, namely Tiandi Source, Qixia Construction Da Yue Cheng 、 OCT A and Initial shares (Rights protection) 。 On March 31, 2024, Hualian Holding It was unanimously predicted that the net profit would increase by 4.59%, and on May 17, it was unanimously predicted that the net profit would increase by 264.42%.
In addition, among the companies that have received the latest consensus forecast of performance growth, only a few companies have a slight decline in net profit, and the rest may show a strong performance rebound in 2024.
Significantly enlarged trading volume
Turnover rate of real estate shares hit an 8-year high
Under the policy support, the real estate stocks are increasingly favored by investors, and the transaction is significantly enlarged. On May 17, the turnover of the real estate industry reached 54.264 billion yuan, the highest single day turnover since 2023, and the industry index was far ahead with a 7.37% increase. From a long-term perspective, the real estate industry has seen a single day turnover of more than 10 billion yuan for 13 consecutive trading days, during which the industry index has risen by 27.84% in total, and the overall volume has risen.
The active transaction in the real estate industry is also reflected in the turnover rate. The overall turnover rate of the industry was calculated based on the weighted average of the total market value. On May 17, the turnover rate reached 4.92%, a new high since 2016, and the trading activity increased significantly. Historically, since 2016, the turnover rate of the real estate industry has exceeded 3% in 20 trading days, and most of the days with high turnover rate rose sharply, with an average increase of 2.23% on that day. In addition, the real estate industry was generally active before and after the annual report was released from March to May, followed by the semi annual report release node from July to August.
Transactions in the real estate industry were active, and real estate stocks became regular customers of the Dragon and Tiger List. Data shows that since this year, individual stocks in the real estate industry have been listed 200 times, and 70 times since the rebound on April 25, accounting for 35% of the total. According to the month, in the past 10 trading days in May, the number of times that individual stocks in the real estate industry have been listed on the list has reached 52, second only to February.
Real estate shares with three types of funds
The continuous increase of the policy has injected a "shot in the arm" into the industry, which has also greatly enhanced the confidence of investors. Since the real estate industry continued to rebound, multiple funds continued to flow into A-share real estate stocks. According to the statistics of Databao, since April 25, the accumulated net inflow of main funds into the real estate industry has reached 4.884 billion yuan, of which the net inflow on April 29 and May 10 exceeded 2 billion yuan, while the net outflow from the beginning of the year to April 24 was 17.21 billion yuan, indicating a significant return of main funds.
In contrast, leveraged funds were distributed earlier to individual real estate stocks. Data shows that since February 19, financing funds in the real estate industry have turned into net inflows, with a total of 1.695 billion yuan, including Vanke A, Huafa, China Merchants Shekou, Binjiang Group Wantong Development 、 Urban construction development Net financing purchases were all over 100 million yuan.
The active transactions in the real estate industry also attracted foreign investment. Data shows that since April 25, the number of real estate stocks held by Lugutong has risen significantly, reaching 2.568 billion shares at the latest, an increase of 15.57% from the low point in the year. Industry leaders have repeatedly entered the list of the top ten active individual stocks of Beishang Capital, for example, Poly Development obtained a net purchase of more than 500 million yuan of Beishang Capital on May 17.
Institutions are generally optimistic about the effect of the new policy
The institutions are generally optimistic about the recent real estate policy, saying that the stock of real estate is expected to be quickly digested, the proportion of down payment is reduced to activate residents' demand for housing, and the recovery of the real estate industry is accelerated.
CSC Securities believe that, from the demand side, first tier cities have successively relaxed purchase restrictions, core second tier cities such as Hangzhou and Chengdu have completely lifted purchase restrictions, and the down payment ratio and loan interest rate have been reduced to the lowest level in history; From the supply side, restrict the transfer of new land in cities with excessive inventory, and actively revitalize the inventory by means of purchasing existing housing and "trading old for new". With the support of the policy, the activity of the real estate market is expected to continue to improve, and the fundamentals are expected to bottom out.
Haitong Securities It is believed that in the later stage, there may be more policies to stabilize demand, reduce inventory and reduce supply, which is conducive to the long-term health and stability of the industry. At present, the overall valuation level of the real estate sector is too low, and the competitiveness of high-quality companies will gradually emerge.
Galaxy China Securities said that under the positive effect of the intensive introduction of policies, investor sentiment is expected to be boosted, bringing pulse to the A-share market. At the same time, the local government's purchase of houses for sale and other measures will help promote the de stocking of real estate, which is expected to ease the pressure on the domestic economy, and also provide some support for the fundamentals of the A-share market.
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