Where did the deposit interest rate cut money go: can the high growth of bank financing scale continue in May? How to choose financial products| Financial products _ Sina Finance

Source: Associated Press of Finance

In the context of the continuous decline in the rate of return on bank deposits, funds are flowing to the wealth management market. The reporter from the Associated Press of Finance learned from many sources that the insiders obviously felt the return of financial funds, and the data also showed that the financial scale in May continued the expansion trend of the previous month. In the past, as a mid quarter month, the scale change in May was relatively weak, but driven by the current wealth management and deposit price comparison effect, the scale of wealth management increased significantly.

A number of insiders told the Associated Press of Finance and Economics that there is still room for growth in the scale of financial management in the future. Investors who transfer from deposits to financial products generally have low risk appetite and prefer financial products with stable income. At present, cash management and fixed income products are still the absolute main force of financial products. The insiders also suggest investors to consider short-term debt financial products and short-term open fixed income financial products, with a higher yield than cash products.

　　 Where did the savings go? The trend of high growth of financial management scale will continue

Against the background of continuous decline in deposit yield, the trend of residents' deposit moving has not diminished. According to the data of the Central Bank, RMB deposits increased by 7.32 trillion yuan in the first four months, and the difference between the calculation and the data of the first quarter, RMB deposits decreased by 3.92 trillion yuan in April. Deposits of residents and enterprises have shrunk to varying degrees. In April, RMB deposits decreased by 3.92 trillion yuan. Among them, resident deposits decreased by 1.85 trillion yuan, enterprise deposits decreased by 1.87 trillion yuan, and deposits of non bank financial institutions decreased by 0.33 trillion yuan.

Where did all this money go? The reporter from the Associated Press of Finance and Economics learned from many sources that the financial management scale in May continued the expansion trend of the previous month when the advantages of deposit products were weakening. People in the industry obviously feel that the financial management fund is flowing back, and the financial management market has become hot.

"More and more funds are flowing into wealth management, and it should not be the feeling of our family, but the phenomenon of the whole industry." A relevant person of a wealth management subsidiary told the Associated Press of Finance and Economics that, affected by the reduction of deposit interest rates, the call for the suspension of manual interest compensation, there is no place for money to go, and we can feel that wealth management sales are getting hotter and hotter.

It can also be seen from the data that the financial management market grew faster in May than in previous years. West China Securities According to the statistics, from May 6 to 12, the month on month increase was 175.7 billion yuan to 29.42 trillion yuan, constantly hitting new highs in the year. The scale of financial subsidiaries increased by 1996 billion yuan month on month to 25.62 trillion yuan, accounting for 87.08% of all financial products. Compared with the past, the month on month changes from 2020 to 2023 are 0.07 trillion yuan, -0.21 trillion yuan, 0.03 trillion yuan and 0.34 trillion yuan respectively.

It can be seen that in the past May, as a mid quarter month, the scale change was relatively weak, but driven by the current wealth management and deposit price comparison effect, the scale of wealth management increased significantly.

"The phenomenon of deposit transfer can also be seen in the near future." The financial manager of a joint-stock bank told the Associated Press of Finance and Economics, "It should be said that the amount of deposits was relatively fixed in the past, after all, many people could not bear the risk. But now these people will also consider some other products, such as money funds and cash management. We don't push deposits too much now, mainly to reduce risk financing, as well as savings insurance. Sales are very good. "

Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst of Huachuang Securities, believes that as bond prices rise, the yield of investment in related wealth management products rises, and the "move" of enterprise demand deposits to wealth management is also more obvious.

According to the analysis of insiders, after the regulation prohibited manual interest supplement, more than 10 banks took off the shelves in May to collect "smart deposits" with high interest rates. At present, the income benchmark of wealth management products is about 3%, which promotes the flow of funds to the wealth management market by comparison. This trend will continue in the future.

"These measures have a continuous role in promoting the transfer of savings funds to bank financing, and various low-risk financing products are also good substitutes for deposits. It can be predicted that there is still room for the growth of financing scale." Dong Cuihua, a researcher of Puyi Standards, told the Associated Press of Finance and Economics.

　　 Which products perform best? How do investors choose?

P&E Standard said that investors who transfer from deposits to financial products generally have low risk appetite and prefer financial products with more stable income. With the expansion of financial management scale, how are various products performing? How should investors choose?

From the perspective of product types, cash management and fixed income products currently account for a large proportion, but the yield of cash management and monetary fund products declined slightly. Insiders suggest that investors can consider short-term debt financial products and short-term open fixed income financial products.

Previously, the fluctuation of bond market affected the net value performance of related products, which may continue to decline in the future. Liu Yinping, an analyst at Rong360 Digital Technology Research Institute, pointed out to the Associated Press of Finance and Economics that the yield of debt financial products has certain volatility, mainly based on the performance of the bond market, but in the case of downward market interest rates, the yield of such products may have some room for decline in the future.

P&I Standard also said that the yield of some bonds is currently at a relatively low level, and it is more difficult to obtain the capital gains of the assets allocated by the newly issued wealth management products in the later period. With the background of the decline of the market interest rate center, the yield of wealth management products in the future may decline.

After the release of the "New National Nine Rules", the wealth management with rights continued to receive attention, but the proportion of products in the first quarter was not large. According to the statistics of Puyi standard data, as of the end of April, the existing scale of equity financing products was about 40 billion yuan, the existing scale of joint-stock bank financing companies accounted for more than 56%, and the total existing scale of state-owned large bank financing companies and joint-stock bank financing companies accounted for more than 80%. The scale of equity wealth management products is relatively low, and the allocation proportion of bank wealth management to equity assets is not high.

"In the long run, equity assets are an important way to increase the income of wealth management products. With the improvement of the investment and research ability of various issuers in equity asset investment, and the improvement of investors' awareness of product income fluctuations, the number of equity wealth management products and the allocation ratio of equity assets are expected to increase in the future." Dong Cuihua pointed out.

At present, cash management products and fixed income products are still the absolute main force of financial products, but the yield of the two types of products has declined. Or it may be related to the fact that the market funds in April were relatively abundant as a whole, superimposed on the downward movement of the market interest rate center. In April, the overall annualized yield of money market funds in the past seven days was mostly between 1.80% and 1.85%, while the average annualized yield of cash management products in the past seven days was about 2.10%, which is recommended by the industry. As of May 9, Tianfeng Research said that the average 7-day annualized yield of 372 monetary funds was 1.74%; The average 7-day annualized yield of 243 samples of cash management products is 1.93%.

"Investors can consider short-term debt financial products and short-term open fixed income financial products. The yield will be a little higher than that of bank cash products, but the volatility of earnings will be greater and the liquidity will be poor." Liu Yinping said that from the perspective of investors, the deposit interest rate continues to shrink, while the yield of financial products has recovered recently, Some deposit funds may flow into low and medium risk financial products.

　　 Guosen Securities It is believed that, in terms of scale, the industry has a strong certainty of breaking through 30 trillion yuan, which better matches the supply of subsequent bond issuance; Structurally, cash and short-term debt products are still the focus of the product, especially the current high margin of safety of short-term asset returns, which is a good alternative to cash management products; In terms of breakthrough, the issuance of multi asset strategy increased, and the financing with rights received continuous attention. In addition to cross-border, high dividend and other income thickening strategies, since the second quarter, the issuance of products including commodities (mainly gold) and indexes has been particularly accelerated.