Associated Press, May 13 (reporter Wang Hong) The soaring gold market has been rocked again. Today, spot gold once lost 2340 dollars/ounce, down 0.88% on the day. In fact, after May Gold price At one time, the biggest drop was 6%. Industry experts pointed out that the fall of gold price was due to the fact that the international gold price was at a historical high, and profit taking occurred after the geopolitical conflict cooled. The fluctuation of gold price after the high level reflects the divergence of the market on the future trend of gold.
According to the World Gold Council, the total global gold demand (excluding over-the-counter transactions) declined in the first quarter of this year, and the global gold jewelry consumption demand also declined year-on-year. The total amount of gold recovered in the first quarter also hit a three-year high. Experts remind that the driving logic of this round of national gold price rise is different from that of 2011, and consumers should pay attention to blind obedience to risks, market risks and channel risks. It is suggested that investors should not blindly enter the market and make diversified and steady investments.
Recent gold price shocks reflect the divergence of market expectations
In recent months, the price trend of the global gold market has been soaring. UBS points out that gold prices soared by 20% between mid February and mid April. "Since March, under the combined influence of the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate reduction, the uncertainty risk caused by the continued warming of international geopolitical conflicts and other factors, the international gold price has continuously broken new historical records," said Li Guangguo, director of the Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center, when analyzing the reasons behind the high gold price.
Louise Street, a senior market analyst of the World Gold Council, also pointed out that there are many factors behind the recent surge in gold prices. First, geopolitical risks are increasing, and superimposed macroeconomic uncertainties continue to exist, which together pushed up investors' demand for gold to avoid risks. In addition, continued gold purchases by global central banks, strong OTC investment and increased net purchases in financial derivatives markets also contributed to the rise in gold prices.
However, the gold market has stepped on the brake recently. Since the spot price of gold in London hit a record high of US $2431.78/ounce on April 12, it has started to adjust. On May 3, it once hit a new low since April 5, during which the cumulative maximum decline reached 6.36%. Today, spot gold once lost 2340 dollars/ounce, down 0.88% on the day.
During the May Day holiday, affected by the fall in international gold prices, the domestic gold market also ushered in a wave of price cuts. Many gold brands have followed up the price reduction promotion, and the price even fell back below 600 yuan/gram after the discount.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher in the financial market department of Everbright Bank, believes that the recent performance of the gold market at a historical high and intensified volatility reflects that the market has had obvious differences on the future trend of gold, and has begun to be vigilant against this short-term unilateral and sharply rising market. "The main reason for the fall of gold price is that the international gold price is at a historical high. As the geopolitical conflict shows signs of cooling, the real interest rate rises, leading to profit taking.".
Zhou Maohua said that from the perspective of trend, the gold trend is uncertain. On the one hand, the geopolitical conflict is still continuing, the developed economies are gradually transitioning to the interest rate reduction cycle, and the trend of diversified official asset structure of some central banks is emerging; On the other hand, the gold price is at a historical high, the future real interest rate may still constitute resistance, and the market has fully priced geopolitical conflicts.
Experts suggest investors to diversify and invest steadily
Although gold prices have been rising all the way recently, for investors and consumers, the signals behind some macro data cannot be ignored. According to the latest report issued by the World Gold Council, in the first quarter of 2024, the total global gold demand (excluding over-the-counter transactions) will be 1102 tons, down 5% year on year; Gold investment demand (excluding over-the-counter transactions) was 199 tons, down 28% year on year; Global gold jewellery consumption demand fell slightly by 2% year-on-year to 479 tons.
Li Guangguo said that all markets have ups and downs, and all investments have risks. At present, blindly following risks, market risks and channel risks are several aspects that must be paid attention to. Some consumers and investors lack understanding of the gold market subjectively. They buy up rather than down, blindly follow the trend and are eager to get on the bus. The most intuitive example is that under the gold investment boom in 2011, someone was trapped 9 years later, and only in 2020.
It is worth noting that some investors have taken advantage of the higher gold price to make profit. The World Gold Council reported that the total amount of gold recovered in the first quarter hit a quarterly high since the third quarter of 2020, with a year-on-year growth of 12% to 351 tons.
"Objectively, the driving logic behind this round of international gold price is quite different from that of 2011. It is difficult to grasp the rise and fall of the market, and the huge fluctuation of the market is even more difficult for ordinary consumers and investors to grasp and bear." Li Guangguo reminded consumers to pay attention to the market risk of the current gold market, and suggested that gold jewelry consumption should be within their income and gold bar investment should be within their capacity, We should not blindly enter the market and follow the trend of growth.
Wang Pengbo, a senior analyst in the financial industry of Broadcom Consulting, believes that investors should still pay attention to the risks behind gold wealth management. Although gold has a strong appreciation potential in the long run, short-term price fluctuations may be normal, and investors should expect and prepare for this. When setting foot in gold investment, it is necessary to be rational and prudent, and formulate reasonable investment strategies based on individual risk preferences. When selecting gold investment products, product liquidity and investment threshold are factors that cannot be ignored.
Zhou Maohua suggested that there are still many uncertain factors affecting the gold price trend in the future, which requires high professionalism of investors. From the perspective of sound investment, it is suggested that investors should be more inclined to diversified portfolios and sound investment.
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