With the improvement of the balanced level of educational resources in the region and the narrowing of the gap between school districts, the top school district houses have stepped down from the altar
Author: Wu Simin
"In the past year, the housing bubble in Beijing's sky high school district is being squeezed out. In Desheng, the listed unit price of second-hand housing in many 'old and broken small' communities has decreased by 6% to 8% compared with a year ago, and more than 90% of the housing sources have been sold at 10% of the listed price."
Xiao Wang, the sales manager of an intermediary store in Desheng School District, told the First Finance reporter about the recent situation of the school district housing.
Located in Xicheng District of Beijing, Desheng School District is one of the most concentrated areas of "small cattle" and "middle cattle" in Beijing. At the hottest time, the school district's "old and broken small" once had a "listing price of more than 220000 yuan/square meter", "landlords chasing up 2 million yuan overnight" and other wonders, which were regarded as the price ceiling of Beijing school district housing.
However, since last year's "promotion from young to young", the "East and West Seas" (Dongcheng, Xicheng and Haidian), regarded as the education highland of Beijing, began to strictly implement the policy of "multi school integration". Then, the second-hand housing market in Desheng and other hot school districts turned sharply downward.
"Multi school zoning" breaks the corresponding relationship between the house and the school district, which means that the certainty of "the school district housing counterpart famous school" is reduced. In 2021 and 2022, Beijing is at the peak of school-age children's enrollment. In the past two years, after purchasing Ruhaidian Zhongguancun There are many families whose children are transferred to ordinary schools in the school district, such as the Third Primary School, Cuiwei Primary School, Xicheng Yuxiang Primary School, Experimental Second Primary School, Dongcheng Shijia Experimental Primary School and other first-class schools. In the hot school districts such as Desheng, Yuetan and Hepingli in Xicheng, the phenomenon that the children of the right age of the new house purchasing families are transferred out of the district has even occurred.
After the school starts in the autumn of September 2022, all regions of Beijing will carry out teacher exchange and job rotation. Some experts believe that the continuous deepening of this educational reform measure will further weaken the concept of "famous schools" and shake the value of "top school district housing".
However, in the opinion of many interviewed parents and real estate intermediaries, with the improvement of the balanced level of educational resources in the region and the narrowing of the gap between student sources among school districts, the "belief in famous schools" will be broken, and the housing prices in the "East West Sea" school district will also be "cut peak and fill valley". But after the bubble burst, as long as the contradiction between supply and demand of high-quality education resources still exists, the overall price of school district housing in the "East West Sea" will continue to rise moderately.
Desheng transaction decreases greatly
"2016~2018 is the hottest time in Desheng School District."
According to Xiao Wang, Haidian District has implemented the policy of multi school zoning at that time, that is, after January 1, 2019, new families who buy houses will no longer correspond to fixed primary schools, while Xicheng District will continue the single school zoning. At that time, the teaching quality of Desheng School District and the surrounding school districts was quite different, and Desheng's "old school but small school" was particularly popular. At the peak, the annual turnover of second-hand houses in Desheng School District can reach 2000 sets.
"But the golden age has passed. From July last year to July this year, Desheng School District only sold 600 sets," said Wang.
Reviewing the second-hand housing market in Desheng School District since 2019, July 2021 is the key node for the market to turn from hot to cold. Behind this change is the new policy of multi school planning, which is called "July 31" by Xicheng parents.
According to the Implementation Opinions on Enrollment in 2020 Compulsory Education in Xicheng District issued by the Education Commission of Xicheng District, when children of eligible age from families who have purchased houses in Xicheng District and obtained the housing property right certificate apply for primary school admission after July 31, 2020, they will no longer be registered in the school district, and will all enroll in the school district or adjacent school districts in the form of multi school district.
However, the "July 31" New Deal really took effect last year.
In 2021, in Desheng, Yuetan Financial Street (commonly known as "Jindeyue") and several Xicheng school districts, such as Taobai, Shichahai, Zhanzhan Road. Before the "July 31" New Deal, families who bought houses in Xicheng District and obtained housing property rights certificates (school-age children still meet the policy of "single school allocation" under the principle of proximity), their children were ranked to other primary schools in the school district due to the full number of primary schools in the same place. However, for popular school districts such as Desheng and Yuetan, many families who got the housing capital of Xicheng District after "July 31" are faced with the dilemma of adjusting out of the district.
In this year's admission process of Xicheng District's young students to primary schools, the above situation is repeated.
The adjustment of student resources is related to the number of school-age children and degrees.
Since January 1, 2016, Beijing has implemented a comprehensive two child policy in the city, and the number of new births has increased. In 2017, the number of new born people in Beijing was 171300, the peak since the founding of New China. Until 2020, this trend will begin to decline significantly. In other words, in the next three years (2023~2025), the number of school-age children in Beijing who are "young to young" is still high.
In addition, when Desheng's house price was at a high point, there were many buyers, which means that "prospective Xicheng parents" who have children's enrollment needs in the short term will also face the situation of a large number of school district degrees being occupied under the background of the implementation of "one degree every six years" in Xicheng District.
A parent who is interested in buying a house in Xicheng told the reporter that among the parents, there are many Desheng parents who have bought a new house in the past two years and whose children are enrolled this year complaining that they have spent millions more room tickets to get the same results as families in other districts, and will also bear the risk of the devaluation of the "old and broken" and the pressure of renting across school districts.
According to the survey of First Finance and Economics, in the past year, the "old and broken small" in school districts such as "Jindeyue", and the small house types such as Haidian Wanliu Hummingbird Home, Puhui Nanli, which are purely used to "occupy the pit", have seen a sharp decline in their trading volume, and even the price reduction has not been noticed.
However, some parents told the reporter that in the "East West Sea", in addition to the previous high premium "old broken small" price return to reason, the overall price of second-hand school district housing in the administrative region has not loosened. "Parents are more likely to adjust their choices within the region. My child will go to school in 2024, and Desheng School District will not dare to buy it at a reduced price. When I ask around the Xinjiekou School District, the house price has increased by 20% this semester." said a "quasi Xicheng" parent.
However, the surveyed families who only need degrees after 2025 said that in the next few years, educational reform policies and changes in education quality between school districts are still facing uncertainty, and second-hand housing prices in hot school districts may continue to decline. Therefore, they will choose to wait and see for a while.
Spillover effect of top school districts appears
First Finance and Economics noticed that the sales mentality and conversation skills of real estate agents have changed in many intermediary stores in Desheng School District.
For example, intermediaries are generally more attentive to families with degree needs after 2025. "At that time, Desheng's degree should be enough, at least it is unlikely to leave the district. Buying a house first will give you an advantage."
If families are anxious to buy a house in the past 1-3 years, Desheng's intermediaries will say frankly that "there is little hope for enrollment in the school district", and then start to sell second-hand houses in the surrounding school districts. Among them, the school district recommended more is Xinjiekou.
Some intermediaries also said that, excluding the school district attribute, Xinjiekou has a better geographical location than Desheng, some houses are younger, and the value preservation space is larger than Desheng's "old and broken".
Affected by the spillover effect of Desheng School District, Xinjiekou is one of the school districts with the highest increase in the average price of second-hand housing in Xicheng in the past year. As of December 27, there were 26 square meters of "old, broken and small" buildings built in 1958 in the school district with a unit price of more than 167000 yuan/square meter.
Compared with the "old, broken and small", the price of housing in Xinjiekou School District, which has the attributes of a school district and can meet the demand for self occupancy, has increased more significantly.
Xifu Taoyuan is a residential area in the school district, which mainly focuses on improving housing supply and was built in 2005. First Finance and Economics learned that in Xifu Taoyuan, the unit price of a three bedroom improved house with an area of 140 square meters also reached more than 160000 yuan/square meter. "Within one year, the unit price of second-hand houses in the community has risen by more than 12%. The transaction pace is also very fast, and there is often no house for sale." An intermediary familiar with the community said.
Not only in Xicheng District, but also in Dongcheng District and Haidian District, where multi school planning was implemented earlier, more and more parents have given up the idea of "fighting for small schools", instead pursuing middle level primary schools, and even expressed the emotion of "buying houses only to get tickets".
With the change of the buyer's psychological expectations, the top school districts in the "East West Sea" have stepped down from the altar, while the second class schools and school districts once covered by the light of "small cattle" have become hot cakes.
In Dongcheng, due to the strong educational reform and the early implementation of balanced development measures in the compulsory education stage, compared with Xicheng and Haidian, the price of school district housing fluctuates less in recent years.
From the perspective of the transaction, an intermediary in Dongcheng District said that since the division of multiple schools, Shijia Experimental Primary School, the top cattle school in the jurisdiction, has become less popular due to the high possibility of being adjusted. In the past year, there has been almost no premium in the near new residential areas of the primary school, such as Douban Hutong, and the price of two bedroom hanging with more than 70 square meters has remained around 9 million yuan. In contrast, the average price of second-hand housing in school districts with more equal strength in primary and secondary schools, such as Anjiao and Hepingli, rose by about 8%~10% from last June to this June. For example, in the community opposite to Fuxue Hutong Primary School in Anjiao School District, the price of a two bedroom apartment with an area of more than 70 square meters rose to more than 11 million yuan.
"It is worth noting that this year's multi school planning in Dongcheng District has unexpectedly opened the 'true blind box era' - two types of situations exist, namely, 'Niu Xiaopai to the general school' and 'Pu Xiaopai to the general school'. For example, high-quality schools such as Shijia Experiment and Fuxue Hutong Primary School have rarely appeared in the list of adjustment schools." The Dongcheng real estate agency said that since July, After consulting the parents of second-hand houses in Dongcheng District, most of them said that they had already had psychological expectations for the "random distribution" of young children in the district, and that buying houses was more for the purpose of obtaining entrance tickets to Dongcheng Education.
Teacher rotation affects geometry in the city
In order to vigorously promote the high-quality and balanced development of compulsory education, recently, the relevant head of the Beijing Municipal Education Commission made it clear at a press conference that all districts in Beijing will carry out teacher exchange and job rotation after the school starts in the autumn of September this year.
As soon as the news came out, whether the "East West Sea" high-quality education resources would flow among the 16 districts became a concern of parents.
However, according to the statement of the Beijing Municipal Education Commission this time and the previous pilot work, the job rotation in the district is the main type of the educational reform work.
Chu Zhaohui, a researcher of the Chinese Academy of Educational Sciences, told First Finance that the implementation of job rotation in the district is more feasible because it costs less and does not increase the commuting burden of teachers; The trans regional job rotation needs to involve the use of financial funds between different administrative regions. It will also face the nonuniformity of personnel management and evaluation in the education employment system of each region, making it more difficult to implement. Therefore, at this stage, the rotation rate of teachers in Beijing will probably not break the administrative divisions.
Then, with the continuous advancement of teacher rotation, will this educational reform measure become another straw for cooling down the second-hand school district housing in the "East West Sea" after "school quota arrives", multiple schools are divided into districts, and a degree is given every six years?
Chu Zhaohui believes that teacher rotation is conducive to solving the problem of redistribution of high-quality education resources, but it will not bring too much change to the distribution pattern of public education resources throughout the city. Its role is more reflected in promoting the equalization of education resources within and between school districts.
A teacher in Haidian District told the reporter that as early as five or six years ago, Beijing had achieved full coverage of school district management and group education. Now, the District Education Committee has also strengthened the allocation of teachers and hardware support for ordinary and weak primary schools. Therefore, the new policy of teacher rotation has not aroused too much water among parents. "As the old saying goes, 'Three Movements of Mencius and Mother', compared with the flow of individual teachers, parents pay more attention to the overall quality of students and the educational heritage formed by the school for a long time."
However, under the rotation of teachers, parents' pursuit of top school districts has gradually weakened, and their anxiety about buying houses has also begun to ease.
Many interviewed parents believe that a greater degree of teacher rotation will increase their confidence in the structural reform of the education supply side, and then affect their understanding of school choice and school district housing; At the same time, however, affected by the "peak shaving and valley filling" effect of teacher rotation, the overall educational advantages of the "East West Sea" may be further highlighted, and these areas will become increasingly attractive to them.
"Previously, parents first considered which school district has the most average educational resources when choosing school district housing, which is why 'Jindeyue' is popular. Now, whether it is students or teachers, the gap between different districts is narrowing, so it seems not so difficult to give up 'Jindeyue' and get the landing qualification of other Xicheng school districts through less economic costs." A Xicheng parent told First Finance.
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