Recently, the official released a number of economic data for April. The improvement or expansion of many indicators can be seen that China's economy is still recovering from the current situation and the long-term trend.
To sum up, many indicators that directly reflect the economic fundamentals, whether from the production side or the demand side, are constantly consolidating.
First of all, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% year-on-year in April, 0.2 percentage points higher than that of last month.
Don't underestimate this 0.3.
As the main engine of China's economic growth, the stimulation of consumption vitality is crucial to China's economy. The continued rise in price increases shows that consumer demand is recovering steadily.
In fact, the activity of consumption has been directly reflected in the surge of people during the May Day holiday. In just a few days, the number of domestic tourists, tourism spending and other major indicators have reached a record high. The sales of national key retail and catering enterprises have increased by 6.8% over the same period last year, and the passenger flow of key business districts in 36 large and medium-sized cities has increased by 15.1% over the same period last year.
Besides, as one of the "troika" driving economic growth, exports also achieved better than expected performance.
In April, the import and export of a single month was 3.64 trillion yuan, with the growth rate turning from negative to positive, up 8% year on year. The cumulative growth rate of import and export in the first four months was faster than that in the first quarter, while the scale also hit a new high in the same period of history. According to foreign media analysis, this shows that there has been an encouraging improvement in domestic and foreign demand, which has boosted China's economy.
From the production side, the manufacturing PMI in April was 50.4%, which was in the expansion range for two consecutive months. Among them, the production index was 52.9%, up 0.7 percentage points over the previous month, the highest since April 2023.
A series of data showed positive signs, which made the outside world optimistic about the upcoming overall macro data of April. Singapore's Lianhe Morning Post commented that China's economic growth momentum stabilized in the second quarter, and several economic indicators improved or maintained expansion in April.
Of course, we should be confident and sober.
The current growth momentum still needs to be consolidated. After all, the economy continues to rebound and still faces many challenges, such as insufficient effective demand. At the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held at the end of April, it was clearly required to "adhere to the momentum and avoid tightening before loosening".
Sanlihe noted that since the second quarter, the macro policy has been increasing its power, the policy toolbox has continued to update, and some important measures are being implemented at an accelerated pace.
A new round of large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade in measures are accelerating. Recently, multiple departments jointly issued the Detailed Rules for the Implementation of Auto Trade in Subsidy, and Beijing and other places have also intensively introduced specific action plans for trade in, which will activate the "spring water" of consumption.
The fiscal policy has also been updated. This year, 1 trillion super long term special national debt will be landed. On the 13th, the Ministry of Finance announced the arrangement for the issuance of ultra long term special treasury bonds in 2024, with terms of 20 years, 30 years and 50 years respectively, and the initial issuance time is May 17.
The super long term special national debt will give special help to the economy. This extraordinary measure not only benefits the current situation, further expands demand, but also benefits the long-term. It supports the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas.
Recently, the real estate market has also ushered in a new wave of relaxation measures. With the recent abolition of housing purchase restrictions in Hangzhou and Xi'an, there are only six places left in the country with restrictions. The policy measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize the incremental housing will inject confidence in the stable development of the property market.
The shape and trend of China's economic recovery has also been keenly smelled by foreign capital.
Recently, the Asian Development Bank, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Deutsche Bank have all raised their expectations for China's economic growth in 2024. Among them, Deutsche Bank increased from 4.7% to 5.2%, Goldman Sachs increased from 4.8% to 5.0%, and Citigroup increased from 4.6% to 5.0%.
Sheng Lei, deputy director of the Investment Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomics, told Sanlihe that foreign investment is bullish on China, which is deeply rooted in the fact that China's economic recovery is further stabilizing, and economic growth and high-quality development are further supported by fundamentals.
The foundation of growth is consolidated, and the good situation is more obvious. Behind the macroeconomic percentage is the accumulation of growth potential energy and the transmission of development confidence.
Recently, the official released a number of economic data for April. The improvement or expansion of many indicators can be seen that China's economy is still recovering from the current situation and the long-term trend.
To sum up, many indicators that directly reflect the economic fundamentals, whether from the production side or the demand side, are constantly consolidating.
First of all, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% year-on-year in April, 0.2 percentage points higher than that of last month.
Don't underestimate this 0.3.
As the main engine of China's economic growth, the stimulation of consumption vitality is crucial to China's economy. The continued rise in price increases shows that consumer demand is recovering steadily.
In fact, the activity of consumption has been directly reflected in the surge of people during the May Day holiday. In just a few days, the number of domestic tourists, tourism spending and other major indicators have reached a record high. The sales of national key retail and catering enterprises have increased by 6.8% over the same period last year, and the passenger flow of key business districts in 36 large and medium-sized cities has increased by 15.1% over the same period last year.
Besides, as one of the "troika" driving economic growth, exports also achieved better than expected performance.
In April, the import and export of a single month was 3.64 trillion yuan, with the growth rate turning from negative to positive, up 8% year on year. The cumulative growth rate of import and export in the first four months was faster than that in the first quarter, while the scale also hit a new high in the same period of history. According to foreign media analysis, this shows that there has been an encouraging improvement in domestic and foreign demand, which has boosted China's economy.
From the production side, the manufacturing PMI in April was 50.4%, which was in the expansion range for two consecutive months. Among them, the production index was 52.9%, up 0.7 percentage points over the previous month, the highest since April 2023.
A series of data showed positive signs, which made the outside world optimistic about the upcoming overall macro data of April. Singapore's Lianhe Morning Post commented that China's economic growth momentum stabilized in the second quarter, and several economic indicators improved or maintained expansion in April.
Of course, we should be confident and sober.
The current growth momentum still needs to be consolidated. After all, the economy continues to rebound and still faces many challenges such as insufficient effective demand. At the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held at the end of April, it was clearly required to "adhere to the momentum and avoid tightening before loosening".
Sanlihe noted that since the second quarter, the macro policy has been increasing its power, the policy toolbox has continued to update, and some important measures are being implemented at an accelerated pace.
A new round of large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade in measures are accelerating. Recently, multiple departments jointly issued the Detailed Rules for the Implementation of Auto Trade in Subsidy, and Beijing and other places have also intensively introduced specific action plans for trade in, which will activate the "spring water" of consumption.
The fiscal policy has also been updated. This year, 1 trillion super long term special national debt will be landed. On the 13th, the Ministry of Finance announced the arrangement for the issuance of ultra long term special treasury bonds in 2024, with terms of 20 years, 30 years and 50 years respectively, and the initial issuance time is May 17.
The super long term special national debt will give special help to the economy. This extraordinary measure not only benefits the current situation, further expands demand, but also benefits the long-term. It supports the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas.
Recently, the real estate market has also ushered in a new wave of relaxation measures. With the recent abolition of housing purchase restrictions in Hangzhou and Xi'an, there are only six places left in the country with restrictions. The policy measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize the incremental housing will inject confidence in the stable development of the property market.
The shape and trend of China's economic recovery has also been keenly smelled by foreign capital.
Recently, the Asian Development Bank, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Deutsche Bank have all raised their expectations for China's economic growth in 2024. Among them, Deutsche Bank increased from 4.7% to 5.2%, Goldman Sachs increased from 4.8% to 5.0%, and Citigroup increased from 4.6% to 5.0%.
Sheng Lei, deputy director of the Investment Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomics, told Sanlihe that foreign investment is bullish on China, which is deeply rooted in the further stabilization of China's economic rebound, and the further support of economic growth and high-quality development from the fundamentals.
The foundation of growth is consolidated, and the good situation is more obvious. Behind the macroeconomic percentage is the accumulation of growth potential energy and the transmission of development confidence.
