text

Under the influence of favorable policies, there have been some positive changes in the real estate market.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales of new commercial housing in January May fell by 27.9% year on year, 0.4 percentage points lower than that in January April. In May, the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing decreased by 2.1 percentage points and 4.1 percentage points respectively.

At the same time, in May, the newly started housing area stopped falling, with a month on month increase of 5.67%. The cumulative year-on-year decrease from January to May was 0.4 percentage points lower than that from January to April, which was the third consecutive month of narrowing of newly started housing area.

Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, chief economist and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, said that the release of policy effects still needs some time, and the real estate market is still in the process of adjustment.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to May, the investment in real estate development decreased by 10.1% year on year, 0.3 percentage points more than that from January to April, the cumulative growth rate was the lowest since March 2020, and the cumulative decline in the amount of development investment has expanded for three consecutive months.

On the whole, the national economy continues to pick up. The sales area, amount and cumulative year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing continue to remain low, but the decline tends to slow down and narrow. It is expected that the growth rate of real estate development investment will continue to be bottoming out.

In May, the area and amount of commercial housing rose by more than 10% month on month, and the market continued weak repair

The "517" new policy was superimposed on the local government to further adjust and optimize the real estate policy, which was good for the continuous fermentation. In May, the real estate market continued the weak recovery trend.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales area of newly built commercial housing nationwide in May was 73.9 million square meters, up 13% month on month, and the sales amount was 759.8 billion yuan, up 12% month on month. The year-on-year decrease was 2.1 percentage points and 4.1 percentage points lower than that of the previous month.

The cumulative year-on-year decrease of sales area and amount from January to May was 20.3% and 27.9%, respectively, 0.1 percentage point higher and 0.4 percentage point lower than that from January to April.

In May, the policy was frequent. From the adjustment of the three major credit policies of the Central Government's "517" new policy, such as down payment ratio, housing loan interest rate and provident fund interest rate, to the continuous easing policy in 45 local provinces and cities, the first tier cities Shanghai and Shenzhen relaxed restrictions on purchase, and Hangzhou and Xi'an completely lifted restrictions on purchase. The favorable policy has boosted the property market in the short term. In the short term, residents' confidence in buying houses has been slightly restored.

From the CRIC monitoring data, some key second and third line transactions took the lead in recovery, and the second and third line new house transactions such as Hang, Jin, Qing, Han, Fo and Xu all increased by more than 20% month on month.

02 The sales price of a second-hand residential building continued to expand in the same month on month decline

According to the changes of house prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in May announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in all lines of cities have expanded month on month and year-on-year.

Compared with the same period last year, new houses and second-hand houses kept decreasing year on year. The overall decline of new houses increased from 2.96% at the end of April to 4.3% at the end of May, and the decline of second-hand houses increased from 6.79% at the end of April to 7.49% at the end of May.

The decline of second-hand housing is significantly higher than that of new housing. In May, the price of second-hand houses fell year-on-year, and the number of cities reached the peak. The house prices in 70 cities fell year-on-year, while the sales price of new houses fell year-on-year in 67 cities.

On a month on month basis, the month on month decline of the house price index of second-hand houses and new houses in 70 cities from January to March has narrowed, but the month on month decline in April to May has expanded again, and the number of cities with falling house prices has increased again. In May, the price of new commercial residential buildings in 68 of the 70 large and medium-sized cities fell month on month, and the sales price of second-hand residential buildings in 70 cities fell month on month.

03 Newly started and completed areas stopped falling and stabilized, and the cumulative year-on-year decline narrowed

The positive changes in the real estate market are also reflected in the "stabilization" of the newly started and completed areas.

Since this year, the pattern of new construction and completion has not been substantially reversed, and the decline has always been kept at a low level, but there is a trend of gradual stabilization.

Specifically, the newly started area in May was 65.8 million square meters, up 5.67% month on month. From January to May, the newly started housing area was 300.9 million square meters, down 24.2%, and the decline was 0.4 pcts lower than that from January to April.

It is worth noting that the cumulative decline of newly constructed area has narrowed for three consecutive months.

From January to May, the completed housing area was 222.45 million square meters, down 20.1%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points to 20.1% compared with January to April.

Affected by the high base last year, the growth rate of completed area will fall into a negative range in 2024, but there are signs of marginal stabilization in terms of both single month and cumulative growth. Considering that delivery guarantee is still an important part of resolving current market risks, with the implementation of supporting policies in the future, the growth rate of completed area is expected to stabilize.

04 The cumulative year-on-year decrease of development investment by 10.1% has expanded for three consecutive months

The industry is still in the process of adjustment.

From January to May, the national real estate development investment was 4063.2 billion yuan, down 10.1% year on year, 0.3 percentage points more than that from January to April, and the cumulative growth rate was the lowest since March 2020. The cumulative decline in development investment has expanded for three consecutive months.

On the one hand, the growth rate of new construction remains at a low level, which has limited impact on development investment. On the other hand, the weakening of the land market and even the cooling of land auction in core cities also drag down development investment. According to CRIC statistics, from January to May 2024, the transaction amount of operational land in 300 cities across the country decreased by 28% year on year, and that of the first tier cities focused by real estate enterprises decreased by 30%.

Although the overall economy improved in May, the situation of insufficient domestic demand and relatively weak purchase demand continued. In May, the year-on-year growth rate of M1 fell 2.8 percentage points to - 4.2%, while household loans increased only by 75.7 billion yuan in May, further reflecting that the current credit demand of residents is still insufficient.

With the arrival of the mid year sprint node for real estate enterprises in June, marketing efforts are bound to be strengthened, coupled with the further release of policy effects. It is expected that the total volume of transactions in June will increase steadily, and the absolute volume is expected to hit a new high in the year. However, based on the high base last year, the year-on-year decline will continue. The overall heat of the first tier cities is better than that of the second and third tier cities, which is a high probability event. The situation of "the strong will always be strong" is expected to continue.

On the whole, there have been some positive changes in the real estate market. The sales area, amount and cumulative year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing continue to remain low, but the decline has slowed and narrowed.

Driven by the policy of "building protection and delivery", the completed area in the second quarter of 2024 is still supported, but the overall trend is still downward. In the context of destocking, the contraction of land supply and demand will affect the growth rate of real estate development investment and continue to hit the bottom. (Source: Ding Zuyu commented on the property market)